SportsCrack

Target Practice: Fantasy Points Per Target - Part 1

While researching further into the target information I had acquired with The Football Guys, Game Log Dominator (best thing since the forward pass I tell ya -- thank you Doug Drinen!), a light bulb went off in my head. Most of the information, while sure to be interesting and fun to read, wouldn’t be very beneficial to the common fantasy owner. The hardcore, statistic-loving kind? Absolutely. The average, make-that-simple-please kind? Not so much.

Keeping in mind that the majority of drafts would be taking place within the next week or so, I began to Scooby-Doo the pages of target statistics in hopes of uncovering some valuable nuggets for those who had yet to field a team(s).

Since I’ve decided it would be best to just keep this write-up strictly on the Forums and website and not throughout the vast internet-verse, you’ll likely be the only person at your draft with the following information. Especially since my website only gets on average, 2 unique visitors per day and even then, most of the time those people are only concerned with selling me percocet and toasters with broken English. So you should be good if your league-mates don’t frequent the Shark Pool.

Now that I’ve gotten your hopes up, I’m going to shoot them back down. Sorry. This whole thing isn’t going to win you your league title (although this will) all by itself. However, I am a strong subscriber to the belief that the more information you soak in, acquire and have with you at the draft, the better your chance of acing it. That especially applies to the obscure, not-set-in-stone stats that aren’t too popular or common.

It’s simple. Is it you vs. Joe Public in your league? You’ll be coming armed with all the info that comes with a FBG subscription, all of the necessary stats and a firm grasp on some out-of-the box ones (e.g.: Quality Starts, WR Data Conglomerations, Hidden Talent -- all of which are excellent by the way). Mr. Public will probably be coming with a crisp, $8.99 magazine that he chose from the crop because Adrian Peterson was on the cover. It’s also likely he’s not concerned with his lack of studying because he just “knows football”. Yeah, okay. Color me stupid, but I’d say you’d have the upper hand there. Especially if you generously invest in a 24-pack of beer and a liter of whiskey for everyone at your draft party.

Think about it. Let’s say, you had some random quiz on the geography of Antarctica. Let’s also pretend that you knew when this quiz was, had a decent amount of time to study for it and should you get an A, would potentially win $1,000. Wouldn’t you be going to town absorbing everything possible about Antarctica? Not just, hey it’s cold and snowy, but things like the animals that live there, the average temperatures, how to spell it correctly etcetera? Hopefully that made sense. Regardless, I’ll stop hard selling you on obscure fantasy football strategies now.

Anyway, back to the topic. I ended up calculating and learning the inner-workings of a spreadsheet while tallying up what can essentially just be called “Fantasy Points Per Target.” As with my previous targets post, I’m sure something has been done with this in the past, but I’ve completely invented my own system for it. For better or worse. Hopefully not worse.

Unfortunately, there’s no rookies included in this. I wanted to include them, but found the lack of NFL statistics to compare with anything quite difficult to overcome. I may sound like I’m good with math, but I’m probably still at a tenth grade level. Tenth grade was around the time that I realized the benefits of substituting math class with gym class instead. Good times.

To the best of my knowledge and research, everyone on the following lists are still active. They all played to some extent last year and will have the opportunity to get some more time this year. Honestly, I hadn’t even heard of some of the people on the lists. But with the help of Pro Football Reference, The Game Log Dominator and ESPN (to see who changed teams), I managed to eliminate everyone who had either been run out of the league due to lack of talent or retired. There may be a player or two on one of the lists who does not belong. So if you find one, just leave a reply that references the player and I’ll fix it.

After looking at the overall list (ranked by fantasy point(s) per target from 2002-2007), five things stood out to me:

1. The top of the list was skewered with younger players who had a high Fpts/Tg due to a small sampling of quality games.
   
   
2. It may be worth the effort to factor out TD’s and make both a Fpts/Tg and TD/Tg statistic.
   
   
3. The overall Fpts/Tg didn’t give an accurate depiction of what a players value would be this year. Some type of year-by-year profile would be necessary.
   
   
4. The entire list needed to be broken up in some way.
   
   
5. I definitely needed to start using spreadsheets more often.

I ended up splitting the overall list into two. One for the players with more than 140 targets since 2002 and one for those with less. Before I present the first list, I want to quickly give my interpretation of Fpts/Tg.

Fpts/G is good and all but just like receptions, it doesn’t tell the entire story. Targets help us gauge how often a player was targeted in a particular game or season. We can then factor in what the cause of the receptions/targets gap is -- whether it was a penalty, a poor pass or just some plain old butterfingers. It’s a way of sharpening what we try and see in the crystal ball that is predictions, projections and potential.

Now apply that to Fpts/Tg. It combines potential and production, just like Rec/Tg does. In addition however, it also can give you a way to apply all of that information to your fantasy team. Sure it’s not a concrete statistic by any means, but it does help give a clearer picture on how a particular player converts his targets into points for your squad.

As I said before, I may have to factor out TD fantasy points and have them stand alone as a TD/Tg type stat. If your still reading this and have some semblance of an idea as to what I’m talking about, your feedback would be most appreciated.

Enough small-talk. Since I know people don’t tend to enjoy reading mini-novels while at their computer, I’m breaking this bad boy into two parts.

This and what follows is Part One. This one will deal with the 140+ ‘02-’07 targets list. Part Two will deal with the < 140 ‘02-‘07 targets list. It will probably be done sometime tomorrow, if anyone actually cares. It’s not too complicated, right? As always, enjoy and feel free to roast me in the replies!

NOTE: You need to click on the following picture in order to enlarge it. If not, you probably won't be able to read it..

Before we get to the year by year player breakdowns, here’s some overall observations of the list:

• For the most part, the list is pretty solid. Which makes sense. You aren’t going to get 140 targets in the NFL and be a question mark.
  
• If Chris Henry can get his act together, he could be the heir to the Ocho-Cinco/Houshmandzadeh throne. The kid is just plain talented.
  
• Good thing the Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe, because they don’t have anybody after him. They were the only team not to have at least one WR representative in the preceding list.
  
• The Miami Dolphins don’t fare much better. They’re second to last with only one WR on the list currently on the roster.
  
• Four teams are tied for the most, with five players on their active roster. They’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and St. Louis Rams in no particular order.
  
• All four teams with five players on the list have a WR corps that is generally regarded as middle-of-the-pack. It can’t hurt to have that many veterans, though.
  
• The top two players on the list, Chris Henry and Devery Henderson, are perennial under-achievers. But they’re also big-time playmakers when on their A game. Both unfortunately have major question marks heading into 2008.
  
• Patrick Crayton and Santonio Holmes are believed to be primed for more targets this year. Neither are sleepers, but could one or both make the leap to elite WR status?

Some yearly player breakdowns (since 2005):


Devery Henderson

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 52 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 55 targets, 4.2 Tg/G, 111 Fpts, 2.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 42 targets, 2.6 Tg/G, 60 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Devery Henderson has talent. There’s no denying that. Although the fact that he drops just as many passes as he catches has been and still is a cause for concern. It’s to be expected of rookies if they had the problem in college, but it definitely should be cleared up before the WR’s fourth year. On the bright side, Henderson makes an enticing option for Orville Redenbacher’s 2009 ad campaign.

Team changes: The addition of Jeremy Shockey and emergence of Robert Meachem has not helped Henderson’s case for more playing time. If he can clear up the drop problem though, he has all the tools to be a great compliment to Marques Colston.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (38-40)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (0.8)


Chris Henry

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 78 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 75 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2007: 8 games, 38 targets, 4.8 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg

Like Henderson, Chris Henry has talent and there’s no way around it. Unlike Henderson, Henry’s issues lie off the field. After being released by the Bengals and then re-signed, Henry appeared ready to put his off-the-field problems behind him. Although one should take anything someone says to the media in such a situation with a grain of salt. Henry can put up the numbers, but he needs to start acting his age.

Team changes: Although the pair of rookie WR’s the Bengals drafted have looked promising, Henry is the clear WR3 on the team. With more options, he may not get as many looks until everyone is reminded of what he can do after an 82 yard catch and run TD.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (50-55)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Randy Moss

2005: 16 games, 124 targets, 7.8 Tg/G, 148 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 97 targets, 7.5 Tg/G, 73 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 159 targets, 9.9 Tg/G, 287 Fpts, 1.8 Fpts/Tg

After Moss’ historic 2007 campaign, I think it’s safe to say that we’ll likely never see anyone top 2.0 Fpts/Tg after starting all 16 games in a season. He’s still the number one receiver and he still has Tom Brady throwing to him. Normally, I wouldn’t have even highlighted Moss since it’s hard to expound upon a sure thing, but I think the 1.8 Fpts/Tg will become the benchmark for years to come.

Team changes: The only thing that will effect Moss’ targets is if the team comes out the gate rushing more in 2008. Even then, he’s still going to be the go-to guy on offense.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (145-150)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.6)


Terrell Owens

2005: 7 games, 92 targets, 13.1 Tg/G, 112 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 151 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 196 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 141 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 225 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg

The only thing that can appear to stop Terrell Owens production is if he starts a locker room coup and gets sent packing to another team. Even in an “off-year” in 2006, T.O. was still one of the top WR‘s in the NFL. It can only get better as his rapport with Tony Romo strengthens. Although it may already have strengthened to the limit since T.O. now cries for the both of them following tough playoff losses.

Team changes: They’ve got Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton may have an increased role, but to think it will effect Owens’ targets that much is pure insanity. Barring the Cowboys acquiring Randy Moss, there’s not too much to worry about.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (130-135)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Same (1.6)


Lee Evans

2005: 16 games, 92 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 119 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 176 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 113 targets, 7.1 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg

Evans fell back to earth in 2007 after a breakout 2006. Although he got off to a slow start last year, Evans now finds himself with a competent QB who appears to realize the importance of getting him the ball in Trent Edwards.

Team changes: The Bills drafted highly-touted rookie James Hardy in the 2008 NFL Draft. It’s not that much of a concern and might even help get some attention off of Evans. Before Hardy, there wasn’t much on the receiving side of things to take the defenses attention away from him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Patrick Crayton

2005: 11 games, 35 targets, 3.2 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 48 targets, 3.0 Tg/G, 75 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 81 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 110 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Crayton has improved each year over the past three years and is now the clear WR2 on the team. Although you can make a case that he’s a WR3 and Jason Witten is the WR2/TE1, the fact that he’s on such a prolific offense can only help matters. Unless a new trend emerges where defenses focus solely on shutting down the WR2/3 on an offense with top-notch talent everywhere else, don’t expect Crayton to regress anytime soon.

Team changes: The Cowboys have added Felix Jones as the new compliment to Marion Barber, and now officially have become the token, most often used Madden team for scumbags worldwide.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (95-100)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.6)


Santonio Holmes

2005: N/A
2006: 16 games, 86 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 99 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 13 games, 85 targets, 6.5 Tg/G, 143 Fpts, 1.7 Fpts/Tg

Although Hines Ward isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, Holmes youth and talent have officially shoved him into the WR1 spot. Holmes and Roethlisberger flashed brilliance last year in many games and will only get better the more they play together. Also, expect a lot more targets for Holmes in 2008.

Team changes: The Steelers added talented rookies Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall to an already potent offense. With so many other places for the defense to focus on, Holmes will have many coordinators regretting taking the attention off of him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (110-115)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.5)


Reggie Wayne

2005: 16 games, 122 targets, 7.6 Tg/G, 135 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 185 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 156 targets, 9.8 Tg/G, 208 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg

Wayne has gotten more and more targets the past three years in what was a slow but steady, unspoken shift towards Marvin Harrisons WR1 slot. There are questions about Peyton Manning’s health and even if Jim Sorgi ends up playing a bit, he’ll likely find himself targeting one of the best WR’s in the NFL quite often.

Team changes: Nothing really that would effect Wayne, but if the possibly overblown Marvin Harrison doom sayers are correct, Wayne would obviously benefit. However it will be interesting to see, after impressive performances last year, just how much he can remain at the same level without one of the best WR’s in NFL history lining up opposite him. So it could also decrement him. We'll have to wait and see..

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Santana Moss

2005: 16 games, 134 targets, 8.4 Tg/G, 201 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2006: 14 games, 101 targets, 7.2 Tg/G, 123 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 14 games, 115 targets, 8.2 Tg/G, 97 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg

Although Moss’ fantasy point production has seen a notable decline the past three years, the installation of Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense can only hope to improve them. The team is going to throw more and likely throw more in the red zone. Both will be good things for Moss’ numbers.

Team changes: The Redskins took two WR’s and a TE in the second round of the 2008 Draft. All three will likely go through an adjustment period and Moss’ status on the offense remains unchanged.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.2)


Torry Holt

2005: 14 games, 163 targets, 11.6 Tg/G, 186 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 179 targets, 11.2 Tg/G, 177 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 149 targets, 9.3 Tg/G, 159 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg

Although Holt’s production has decreased over the past few years, 2007 can be blamed on the offensive line injuries. Optimism for Holt’s situation isn’t too far-fetched, especially since Isaac Bruce’s departure will give Holt even more targets. The only key is Marc Bulger’s health. As long as he is healthy, Holt will be just fine.

Team changes: Not too much to detail, but Stephen Jackson recently ended his holdout. They won’t be the high-powered Rams offense of yore, but Holt and Jackson are elite players at their respective positions.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)

The Magical 110: Analyzing WR Targets

To be honest, I’ve never really paid much attention to targets. Don’t ask me why, I just didn’t. I knew about them, but I never really tried to put them in context -- probably because I was too lazy. When you do think about them though, the more targets a player gets, the more his chance is to succeed. The better his chance to succeed, the more points he’ll likely put up for your fantasy squad. It’s not that hard of a concept to wrap your mind around. If I can do it...

With the help of the Game Log Dominator (to which I have officially become addicted) I compiled a list of the top WR targets from 2002-2007 and separated them by year. After studying the list and getting a decent handle on the fluxations from year to year, I tried to find a mark off point. One hour and two slices of pizza later, I found one. At least, I think I found one.

That cut off point was 110 targets per year. Not knowing quite where I was going but too intrigued to stop, I calculated the minimum and maximum average receptions, yards and TD’s from 2002-2007 combined. I dropped the highest and lowest each year to get a more realistic sampling. I’m not entirely sure if that was mathematically correct, but it made sense at the time. So I did it.

Out of all the players who had at least 110 targets from 2002-2007, the minimum average was:

62 receptions, 790 receiving yards and 3 TD’s

A fair amount of 1 and 2 TD performances bogged the minimum down a bit, but it’s still an impressive line none-the-less. On the positive end, the maximum average was:

104 receptions, 1,444 receiving yards and 13 TD’s

I think I speak for everyone when I say I’d take that! The summation I eventually came to was that if you could predict the WR’s who had a good shot at getting at least 110 targets then you have a great shot at having that player produce a pretty respectable season, at worst.

But I didn’t stop there. On average over the 6 years, 27 WR’s managed to be targeted at least 110 times. In the interests of seeing the amount of players who broke into that list on average each year, I continued upon my statistical, math-complimented quest. Without even a calculator, mind you! If only my third grade teacher could see me now..

Two hours and two cigarettes later, I came up with the average of 10 players over the past six years who broke into or back onto that top 27/110 targets list each year. To get to the point of the purpose for the post, here are the 10 players who I don’t think will manage to acquire the 110 targets that they saw in 2007:


Derrick Mason (BAL) - With Steve McNair gone and rookie Ray Rice wowing the crowds, the Ravens very well may run a lot more than they will pass this year. Especially with either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller at QB.

Lee Evans (BUF) - Marshawn Lynch proved last year he could be a workhorse back and rookie WR James Hardy gives Trent Edwards another actual option besides Evans to throw to.

Reggie Brown (PHI) - King of RB targets, Brian Westbrook, will still see a massive amount of targets for a RB. DeSean Jackson will in turn steal some more targets away from Brown.

Marques Colston (NO) - Pass catching TE Jeremy Shockey should see his fair share of targets in 2008. The emergence of rookie WR Robert Meachem should as well.

Bobby Engram (SEA) - You can’t get targets if your not on the field.

Chris Chambers (SD) - This may be a long shot, but if Gates can return soon then he’ll resume his hoarding of the targets. LaDainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson won’t help Chambers totals either.

Shaun McDonald (DET) - No Mike Martz system? No targets.

Bernard Berrian (CHI) - I don’t think I need to go on a limb and say that the Vikings may run a lot this year. The more they run, the less targets Berrian will get.

Donald Driver (GB) - Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons to spread the targets around. Driver will get some, but not 110.

Hines Ward (PIT) - Santonio Holmes? Willie Parker? Rashard Mendenhall? Heath Miller? All will get targets that Hines Ward will not.


Who will the ten be that fill the vacancies you say? Ask and you shall receive! The 2007 target totals are in parentheses:


Anquan Boldin (99) (ARI) - Should get at least 110 targets no matter who ends up being the starting QB.

Calvin Johnson (95) (DET) - He’s going to get more and more targets as the years go by.

Santonio Holmes (85) (PIT) - With Hines Ward on the decline, Holmes will benefit from increased targets.

Ten Ginn Jr. (71) (MIA)- Ginn’s likely targets got a huge boost with the arrival of Chad Pennington.

Muhsin Muhammad (81) (CAR) - Muhammed should see a lot of targets in Steve Smith’s two-game absence and even some when he returns. He’ll get more if Jake Delhomme can stay healthy.

Andre Johnson (86) (HOU) - The only reason Johnson didn’t total 110 last year was because he was injured for 7 games.

Jerry Porter (103) (JAX) - Porter should be a favorite target of Jaguars QB David Garrard.

Roy Williams (104) (DET) - With Mike Martz now gone, the Lions will have to throw to their top two WR’s a whole lot just like the normal teams.

Patrick Crayton (81) (DAL) - Someone has to get Terry Glenn’s targets and with Crayton now the WR2, he very likely will.

Laveranues Coles (89) - Maybe that Brett Favre character will have an effect on Coles' numbers?

JG8D69D

Comatose Sleepers: The Wide Receiver Edition

Since there is approximately 528 unofficial definitions for a sleeper, it is often hard to get a grasp or gain any middle ground on exactly what one is. Luckily, there is but one definition for a comatose sleeper. The following, which I made up, is that definition:

Comatose sleeper (noun) - A player so far on under the radar that most fair-weather fans don’t even know they exist. The few that are aware are so because of the projections they have done for the players future, which they have done because of their statistic-addled addiction to fantasy sports.

Did that make you think of dynasty and keeper leagues? Of course it did! That’s what comatose sleepers are for. It would behoove you to have your eye on some of them if you finally want to complete your quest for a back-to-back 10 years in a row fantasy football dynasty title. Or, if for whatever reason the stars align and they get a chance to start, you’ll be claiming them off waivers the minute something happens to whoever’s in front of them.

Now the only difference between plucking random WR6’s from NFL depth charts and a comatose sleeper is research and some good situational perception. Your gonna have to do some research and evaluate a given positions status for each particular team. No one ever said this would be easy. Thankfully for you and your questionable research habits, I’ve done most of the hard work for you. No, no, please -- put the cash away.

Before we look at the list of potential comatose sleeper WR’s, let’s take a look at what type of team one of these gems often find themselves on:

Teams with a young, developing offense: Teams that are young and on the rise often don’t have many super-duper-stars boggarting all of the starting skill positions. See: The Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Tennessee Titans.

Teams with an aging or injury prone player(s) at the particular skill position: It’s always good to place your hopes on a player who will most certainly get their shot at the starting job thanks to ever-spinning Wheel of Time. See: St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Do Not See: Any team with Brett Favre on it (at least if your trying to scope out comatose sleeper QB‘s).

Teams with openings at starting skill positions due to a departure or just a generally poor group of talent at the position: Sometimes, a starter will bolt for another team for whatever reason and in their wake leave a big fat starting position. Then again, other times a team just has a rag-tag, sorry excuse for players at a particular position. See: Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers.

Starting to catch the drift? Wondering why I’m writing this like an instruction manual? That is of no matter, because it's now time to take a look at the potential comatose sleeper WR’s! Key word here is potential. As with normal sleepers, people's opinions will often differ quite vehemently. So just take the following list as a way to jump start your brain. Or get it out of it’s "comatose" state, if you will..

NOTE: A lot of what’s said in the rest of this is very, very optimistic. If you are a pessimist and/or have trouble looking a couple years down the road to see value, I would suggest you turn around and go ogle your Adrian Peterson poster.

Alright, with that necessary disclaimer out of the way -- let’s get started..


Steve Breaston and Early Doucet (ARI) - These two will be doing battle for the WR3 spot for the year. At the moment, Doucet is out with a hamstring injury and Breaston is the favorite to start the season in the slot. Whoever wins has a good shot to do some good things, despite not getting many targets. Former Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin beneficiary Bryant Johnson put up a solid 1268 yards and 6 TD’s his last two years with the team. Score a slight advantage to Doucet in the long run because he’s so frigging fast.

Outlook: Neither one will likely put up decent numbers this year but could next year if Matt Leinart’s progression goes as planned. We should see this year whether Breaston or Doucet is the preferred check down after Fitzgerald and Boldin.


Harry Douglas (ATL) - Thanks to the Joe Horn debacle, Douglas quietly assumed the role of WR4 on the team behind Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Laurent Robinson. Also, in case you hadn’t noticed, the Falcons tight ends aren’t going to be keeping any defensive coordinators awake any time soon. With the main focus for them being run blocking, Douglas should see some time as the second slot receiver in 4 WR sets. Not a bad way to get used to the game.

Outlook: The current situation is a little bleak for Douglas as to being a starter anytime soon. However he would be one injury away from a prominent role in the offense and just in time to go through the growing pains with QB Matt Ryan.


Rashied Davis and Earl Bennett (CHI) - All of the attention in regards to the Bears has gone to their laughable QB situation and with good reason, I for one laugh about it all the time. However, just as bafflingly mediocre is their receiver situation. Devin Hester is a great kick and punt returnee, but so far has left much to be desired in the WR department. Brandon Lloyd is neither here nor there and Marty Booker is far past the prime of his career. Rookie Earl Bennett and Rashied Davis shouldn’t have a problem getting playing time if they can both prove they deserve it.

Outlook: While Rashied Davis 303 yards and 2 TD’s in 2006 wasn’t impressive by any means, he did show what he could do with limited playing time. He won’t have a breakout season this year but if he can land more time on the field he’s worth keeping an eye on. Earl Bennett is just a rookie so it may take him a while to get acclimated to the league, per usual. Hopefully the Bears QB situation is in better shape in a couple years when these two may be primed to storm the league.


Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson (CIN) - Although the Bengals passing attack is just fine the way it is, it could only help things if it had an actual WR3. Both Bengals rookies have their eye on the job this year, even though there are two others in the running as well (Marcus Maxwell and Antonio Chapman). If one does end up making it as the WR3 then the other one likely wouldn’t have to wait too long for another shot. There’s no way Chad Johnson is going to remain chummy and polite with everyone should the Bengals continue losing.

Outlook: While Caldwell has the lead in the race for the 3 spot, Simpson is one impressive performance or practice away from being back in it. If everything progresses as the Bengals think it will, then Caldwell and Simpson will help fill the void left by Chad Johnson’s eventual departure and then some.


Eddie Royal (DEN) - With Javon Walker’s departure and Brandon Marshall’s suspension, opportunity knocked on Eddie Royal’s door, dragged him out the house and threw him onto the football field. He couldn’t have asked for a situation. If he can prove that he’s NFL worthy early on then he could end up one of the few rookie WR’s to get a significant amount of playing time his debut year.

Outlook: Although Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall already have a well-established rapport, Royal would offer Cutler a quick, agile slot option. Unless it takes Royal longer then expected to acclimate to things, he should challenge Brandon Stokley for the slot heading into next year.


Roy Hall (IND) - There seems to be few people who stand on middle ground when it comes to Marvin Harrison. Either they think he’s going to be fine or that he’s going to barely stay on the field this year. Regardless of whether he’s fine this year or not, he’s nearly 40 years old. He’s not going to be the Marvin Harrison of yore forever. Anthony Gonzalez is poised to take over when Harrison does leave, so Roy Hall could in turn fill in the vacant WR3 spot. Though there’s no telling when that would be.

Outlook: Unless Hall gives the Colts reason to look elsewhere, he has enough talent to stay ahead of everyone else and warrant the organizations confidence. Peyton Manning isn’t likely to be going anywhere for a while so the reward compared to Hall’s risk is definitely worth banking on.


Derek Hagan and Davone Bess (MIA) - Earnest Wilford was originally thought to be a lock for the Dolphins starting receiver. That was until he failed to prove to anyone at all that he deserved a spot on the starting roster. Third year WR Derek Hagan on the other hand, has proved he deserves a shot and has reportedly passed Wilford on the depth chart. Rookie Davone Bess has also been impressing the brass and may play a significant role in the slot position. Unless Wilford can get his act together, we may have two potential breakouts on our hands.

Outlook: It remains to be seen whether Wilford will set things right and perform the way his contract says he should. I find it hard to believe that he’ll just bust the rest of the year and fail to do anything but crazier things have happened. Even if he does end up starting, Hagan and Bess look like they could potentially be a big part of the Dolphins offense in a few years.


Sam Hurd (DAL) - Now that “she’s” gone (with she being Bill Parcell’s poetic nickname for Terry Glenn), Sam Hurd is favored to fill in the WR3 spot. In limited action last year, Hurd looked impressive and would make a suitable third option for Tony Romo after Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton. Hurd has competition for the spot in Miles Austin, a third year receiver who hasn’t done much in his first two years.

Outlook: Should Hurd beat out Austin for the job (and he should) then he could be one of the rare comatose sleepers to produce some pretty good numbers early on in his career. It won’t be enough to give him a starting spot on your team but he’s definitely someone to remember if your in a deep league.


Chansi Stuckey, David Clowney and Brad Smith (NYJ) - In the wake of Brett Favre’s New York arrival, much of the focus was on Thomas Jones and Jerricho Cotchery as to who would benefit the most. What hasn’t been talked of too much is that whoever ends up being the WR3 for the Jets this year could also benefit greatly. Not just from having an improved QB throwing to them, but also from the likely decline of an aging Laveranues Coles. Stuckey is the front runner in the race with Clowney not far behind. Brad Smith is just now returning from injury and has some catching up to do but did show promise last season.

Outlook: The true winner of the battle will likely be decided sometime early in the regular season. Even then, the odd man out will benefit once Coles declines due to age. There likely isn’t enough room on the roster in the long term for all three prospects so it will likely come down to who wins the WR3 spot this year and whichever of the remaining two can prove they should be kept on the team.


Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu and Logan Payne (SEA) - This is a good example of just how a series of events can propel a comatose sleeper to stardom. Although rare, injuries to the Seahawks top two WR’s left for a large portion of the season has opened the door to three promising candidates for the future. Courtney Taylor is said to be locked in as the starter opposite of Nate Burleson while Ben Obomanu and Logan Payne will battle it out for the slot position. All three of them could potentially strike it big, especially in a Seahawks offense that’s sure to pass a lot and is led by Matt Hasselbeck.

Outlook: This is exactly the big break that some players need in order to prove their mettle. Chances are good for all three to make significant impacts this season and the Seahawks should be thankful they had such a deep roster because a situation like this could have derailed some lesser-quality teams. Although it will be crowded when Deion Branch and Bobby Engram return, any of the three can make a statement for the future with the chance they are now getting.

In conclusion, here’s a quick list of possible players to keep tabs on because we’ll know a lot more about them in the coming weeks:

Lavelle Hawkins (TEN)

Josh Morgan (SF)

Maurice Stovall (TB)

Devard Darling and Will Franklin (KC)

Jacoby Jones

Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings: Opposing Pass Defense

For the tiered opposing run defense rankings: CLICK HERE

Welcome to the second part of the Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings. If you haven’t read part one, these rankings will allow you to assign a filtered, position-specific value to a team based on the quality of the run or pass defenses they will be playing that year. Then you can apply it to all of the applicable players and viola, you have yet another statistic to give you an edge come draft day.

I took last seasons performance into account as well as off-season pickups, departures and rookie signings and then ranked the pass defenses into tiers. Once that was done I assigned a point value to each tier level and then plugged in that number into every team’s schedule. What I got, besides feeling like I was in elementary school again, were the rankings you will soon read. First off though, the tier rankings:


(No points) Tier 8 - The Tempurpedic Secondary Tier

Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons


(1 point) Tier 7 - The Tendency To Cause Pass Happiness Tier

New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals


(2 points) Tier 6 - The Works In Progress/Regress Tier

Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns


(3 points) Tier 5 - The Required To Be An Optimist Tier

Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers


(4 points) Tier 4 - The Solid Pass Defense But With Questions Tier

Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers


(6 points) Tier 3 - The Assuredly Pesky Tier

New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans


(8 points) Tier 2 - The Hazardous To Your Passing Game Tier

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets


(10 points) Tier 1 - The Shutdown Pass Defense Tier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers


Since we already started with tiers, I decided to take a left turn (to the run defense SOS’s right) and rank the difficulty of the schedules with tiers as well. The last article was extremely long so I tried to shorten the analysis a bit this time around. I’m afraid I wasn’t too successful, though.

The tiers are listed, followed by the teams within it and then a list of players that the schedule may affect the most in the real world and in turn the fantasy world. Players with question marks next to their names may prove to be controversial but remember it is all speculation. Capping everything off is a quick blurb about each team because I just couldn’t resist.

Enough jibber-jabber. The schedule rankings (from difficult to easy):

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Tier 6 - Incredibly difficult

Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans

Players the schedule may affect the most: Derek Anderson, everyone in the Ravens passing attack, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates (?)


Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense is just too potent to warrant downgrading any of them. Besides, they had one of the toughest passing defense schedule’s last year and ended up just fine.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s highly likely that whoever starts for the Ravens between Kyle Boller and Troy Smith will not end up doing to well considering the teams schedule. Although, many were leaning towards that conclusion before taking the schedule into account.

San Diego Chargers

Say what you want about Philip Rivers (I sure have), but he had one of the toughest schedules last year in regards to the passing defenses he faced.

Cleveland Browns

Derek Anderson shrunk in the spotlight at the end of last year and failed to impress when facing teams with quality pass defenses. Luckily for us (and maybe Brady Quinn), we’ll see his true colors in the first two games of the year which are against the Cowboys and Steelers, respectively.

Houston Texans

The Texans were another team with one of the toughest pass defense schedules in the NFL last year. Three of Matt Schaub’s nine starts came against top passing defenses. Taking that into account along with the fact it was his first full year as a starting QB helps put things into a better perspective. Trying to throw in the running game into the equation? Not as much success.

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Tier 5 - Above average difficulty

Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers

Players the schedule may affect the most: Tony Romo (?), Jason Witten, Brodie Croyle, everyone in the Falcons passing attack, whoever wins the Patriots WR3 job


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had one of the easiest pass defense schedules in the league last year yet Tony Romo still managed to throw 19 interceptions. How much of his 4000+ yards and 36 TD’s were influenced by the secondary’s he faced? Note: There isn’t an actual answer to that question.

Kansas City Chiefs

An incredibly interesting thing to note about Brodie Croyle: All of his six starts that he lost came against a top-tier passing defense. The Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Broncos, Titans and Jets. Maybe we should cut the kid a break? Who’s with me?

New England Patriots

The Patriots had a marginally difficult schedule against passing defenses last year, although you wouldn’t have known it by watching them play. The only teams that were able to stay on close to the same level with them were the Jets and Dolphins, both late in the season. With Jason Taylor’s departure likely to send ripples through the secondary, the Jets pass defense stands as the only one in the division that can challenge the Patriots passing attack.

Tennessee Titans

Fact: Vince Young didn’t have a very good year last year. Fact: Seven of his fifteen starts came against top 10 passing defenses. Fiction: Young had a suitable group of receivers to throw to during the aforementioned starts. Fact: I love fact and fiction breakdowns. Hmm, interesting.

Atlanta Falcons

Reports out of Atlanta suggest that the Falcons are planning on throwing Matt Ryan to the dogs his rookie season a la Peyton Manning. Barring a rookie season for the ages, expect a steep learning curve for Matty Ice.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers find themselves with a few more games against high quality passing defenses this year than in the last. However they also find themselves with a more balanced and well-rounded offense heading into the season. As long as Ben Roethlisberger can stay off his motorcycle, the Steelers passing offense should be just fine.

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Tier 4 - Not too bad/Average schedule

New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks

Players the schedule may affect or benefit the most: Eli Manning (affect), Trent Edwards (benefit), Lee Evans (benefit), David Garrard (benefit), Jay Cutler (benefit)


New York Giants

Believe it or not, Eli Manning actually had one of the easiest passing defense schedules last year. You wouldn’t have known it by looking at his 23/20 TD’s to interceptions ratio from last year however. To be fair, brother Peyton didn’t improve in the aforementioned ratio until his sixth year in the league. I guess the Manning’s see no uniforms, just football players early on in their career. That is until they finally come to the realization that it would behoove them not to do that. I guess we’ll see if Eli makes the leap in that department this year.

Buffalo Bills

Not only did then-rookie-QB Trent Edwards impress the Bills enough to get a firm grip on the franchise QB role, he also did so against a pretty difficult schedule. Four of his ten starts were against a top 10 passing defense and the remaining six weren’t what you could call a cakewalk either. Going into his second year and now well established in his offense, we could see Trent Edwards have a very successful year against what appears to be a glass-half-full type schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A strong case could be made for the Jaguars possession of the single toughest schedule last year passing wise. Nine of the team’s sixteen games were against top pass-stopping units and seven of those were started by breakout QB David Garrard. Unless last season was a complete mirage, Garrard’s impressive performance last year has solidified his role as the Jaguars new leader and an ultra-safe fantasy selection.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints didn’t get off to a very good start last year but eventually finished strong in vintage 2006 Saints fashion. With everyone all healed and the exciting, if a bit enigmatic Jeremy Shockey now at tight end, the Saints are primed to strike fear in the hearts of opposing defenses yet again this year. The glue that holds it all together could easily be stripped should the team be bit by the pesky injury bug yet again this season.

Denver Broncos

Not only did Jay Cutler progress leaps and bounds in 2007, he did so while being challenged by one of the ten toughest passing defense schedules of last year. While there are still some tough games on tap for the offense this year, Cutler has proven that he has the skills and intelligence to prepare and execute his offense despite facing such challenging opposition.

Detroit Lions

The Lions find themselves in a similar boat as they were in last year with the yearly schedule. With everyone and their plumber agreeing the Lions will drop-off in the wake of Mike Martz’s departure, the passing game remains largely the same. Although the offense thrived under Martz, Kitna surely believes he can keep it going. Hey at least the guy shoots for the moon. Fore if you miss then you shall end up in the stars, drifting through space with minimal oxygen.

Seattle Seahawks

The fact that they have a favorable passing schedule in 2008 is probably the only good thing to happen to the Seahawks all year long. Poor things. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, arguably the teams top two receivers are out for significant periods of time with injuries. Shaun Alexander is gone with his better days eclipsed by his sudden and unexpected falloff. Luckily for the Seahawks, they have a promising young group of wide receivers ready to step up and fill the Seahawks (and perhaps your fantasy teams?) needs.

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Tier 3 - Fairly easy

Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Whoever wins the Bears starting QB job (?), JaMarcus Russell, Javon Walker, Jason Campbell, Redskins coach Jim Zorn, Matt Leinart, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning


Chicago Bears

An easy schedule against passing defenses is far outweighed by the fact that the Bears don’t have anyone to cash in on it. Weird, that hasn’t happened before. Oh wait..

Oakland Raiders

With the biggest knock against the Raiders offense being JaMarcus Russell’s learning curve, the fact that the team has an easy schedule for him to learn to throw against is definitely a plus. If Javon Walker can bounce back and Justin Fargas was indeed the real deal, then this could be a half-way decent offense. Please note the term half-way decent and apply it to your fantasy team as you wish.

Washington Redskins

It’s common sense to say that an easy schedule is a good thing when a team is learning a new offense. It’s also a good thing when the QB that runs the offense is in a make or break year that will help determine whether or not the team will move in a different direction. Players have a tendency to play to the best of their ability when their career is on the line. Funny how that works..

Arizona Cardinals

While I wouldn’t recommend drafting him unless you were in a dynasty/keeper league or a sociopath risk-taker , Matt Leinart is in the best possible position to succeed. Never mind that his receivers are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin but the schedule is the best it may ever be for him. Also, Edgerrin James likely won’t be around and/or productive for much longer after this year.

Indianapolis Colts

With questions being posed of Marvin Harrison’s status everywhere but Indiana, the fact that the Colts have such a favorable schedule can only help what many are predicting will be Harrison’s imminent demise. If he can stay healthy there’s really no reason that he can’t play close to his former form. Don’t fall into the traps of all the doomsayers. For the obligatory Peyton Manning reference, Manning will have more time to kill with a softer schedule which will leave him with more free time. He can then use that to make the commercials we all know and love to curse aloud for. That’s my last Peyton/commercial joke for a while, I promise.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles will have a similar schedule to last year which was of course Brian Westbrook’s season for the ages. It also saw a healthy bounce back year from Donovan McNabb. All in all it’s good news for all involved as long as they can all fend off the injury bug.

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Tier 2 - Incredibly easy

Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Pennington, Marc Bulger’s ribs, Aaron Rodgers


Carolina Panthers

It always helps to have an easy schedule when your passing attack is going to be lead by a QB who just had off-season surgery on his elbow. With Delhomme getting up there in years and his elbow certain to play a major role in his ability to throw the ball, many have been iffy about him due to the health concerns. However with the easy schedule, the return of Muhsin Muhammed and the mere presence of Steve Smith, the Panthers are a successful Tommy-John surgery away from returning to 2004 status.

Minnesota Vikings

With Bernard Berrian giving the Vikings offense a threat to take a bit of attention off of Adrian Peterson, the team is perhaps a Tarvaris Jackson learning curve away from the Super Bowl. The schedule isn’t likely to hinder his progression and if he can improve upon his game like he’s shown he could then 2008 might be the year that the Vikings become a serious contender. Then again, the trendy off-season sleeper picks always seem to find a way to underachieve in spite of all the hype. So there’s that.

Miami Dolphins

Chad Pennington won’t be near the top of any QB ranking lists. That much is certain. But I can’t help but shake the feeling that the Brett Favre saga has severely overshadowed the fact that Chad Pennington is perfectly capable of being an effective QB when he’s healthy. Facing such an easy bunch of pass defense teams this year (especially when compared with what he faced last year), Pennington very well could go on and have a surprisingly good year. Never underestimate a man with something to prove.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams had a tremendously easy schedule last year but it didn’t really matter. Marc Bulger didn’t have his starting RB or a serviceable-at-best offensive line for nearly all of 2007. With nothing but his arm and quick judgment to rely on, Bulger could have been playing against the Little Giants and still probably had some trouble. With everyone now healthy and Stephen Jackson sure to return eventually (seriously, what is the Rams front office trying to accomplish exactly?), Bulger will be able to take advantage of the cupcake of a schedule the team has this year.

Green Bay Packers

With all of the hubbub of the Brett Favre soap opera and all of the parties involved, not a lot of people have noted that Aaron Rodgers finds himself with quite a first year schedule to play through. Even if it was brought up, it would likely be replaced with breaking news detailing what Favre had for lunch at Camp Mangini that day. Ew, Tuna fish?

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Tier 1 - Creampuff

New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Brett Favre, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Mike Martz’s offense, Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway


New York Jets

Is it a coincidence that the two teams Brett Favre was choosing between had the easiest and third easiest schedules against passing defenses in the NFL? Maybe I’m over thinking things here, but it’s worth throwing out there.

San Francisco 49ers

Mike Martz finds himself in charge of the NFL’s worst offense of last year. On the other side of things they have the easiest passing defense schedule, second only to our final team. It will be interesting to see which extreme will prevail over the other. Perhaps somewhere in the middle?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who cares if Jeff Garcia is 62 years old? With a creampuff schedule for the second year in a row, Garcia will have every opportunity to exhibit his fountain of youth yet again this coming year. Fantasy wise though, I’d say it’s maybe best to admire such an event from afar rather than banking on it for the sake of your team. Such a decision could result in several broken appliances.

Fantasy Extravaganza: Top 25 WR’s Not In The Overall Top 25

If you think about it, you could put a monkey in front of a computer, tell it to pick many people near the top of the screen all the time and that monkey would likely have some impressive players on it’s roster. It’s not very hard to draft the people your supposed to. But it’s after they’re all gone that drafts are won and the massive amount of time you spent researching players that were eventually cut at final cut-downs really pays off.

You can mix and match the top players all you want. If you take out the specific rankings, everyone’s Top 20’s will often have the same 20 players on it. Wouldn’t it behoove us to focus more on lists of players who aren’t on everyone’s lists? Who cares if we end up learning entirely too much about Hank Baskett to warrant utilizing during the season. Should he have a random breakout game during Week 7, you’ll know that it was just that and let some other lemming nearly break their leg trying to get the waiver claim in.

You will likely disagree with some of the rankings, but this list is the very definition of upside. My upside may be different from your upside. So there’s probably going to be some people on here that will make you tilt your head. But that’s okay, because what fun would it be to read a ‘bottom 25 WR’s’ list that didn’t offer some surprises and head-tilters? Correct! Not much fun at all.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my definition of upside in the replies.




25. Robert Meachem (NO)

Missing the entire 2008 season due to an injury and the team feeling he just wasn’t quite ready yet, Meachem had the opportunity to pick up all of the intricacies of the offense in his time on the sidelines last year. With the learning curve one of the big hurdles for rookie receivers, Meachem got that out of the way without ever stepping on the field. Still, he’ll need to get used to actual game speed but on a team that passes as much as the Saints do, Meachem has a huge opportunity to put up some decent numbers this season.

24. James Jones (GB)

Everyone upgraded the Jets receiving corps with Brett Favre’s arrival, will we wish we had done the same with the Packers unit if Aaron Rodgers stays afloat and ends up being a competent QB? Probably not as much. But James Jones would benefit greatly if Aaron Rodgers proves capable of getting the ball to his WR’s and doing it accurately.


23. Limas Sweed (PIT)

Limas Sweed was my favorite receiver coming out of a draft stocked with them. Come draft day, I eagerly awaited to see if he would go to Eagles or Buccaneers as I had predicted. He didn’t. In fact it wasn’t even close. In what felt like some weird Outer-Limits type scenario, no WR’s were taken in the first round. Not a one. So I was pretty amazed when Sweed fell all the way to round two, pick twenty-two before he was finally selected by the Steelers. Even though he’s a rookie, he should be a favorite end zone target of Ben Roethlisberger and that’s really all that needs to be said, I think.

22. Ben Obomanu (SEA)

With news that Bobby Engram would miss 6-8 weeks with an injury, Seattle’s WR situation just got a lot scarier. At least for fans of the team. If you just care about fantasy potential, it bumped up a bunch of possible sleepers that needed something just like this to happen. Ben Obomanu is young, talented and has the opportunity to become the slot receiver to start off the season. With Matt Hasselbeck always a sure bet to share his throws with his receivers, I’ll take it.


21. Ted Ginn Jr. (MIA)

Surrounded by lackluster wide receiving talent, Ted Ginn Jr. will be the Dolphins WR1 despite probably not making WR4 on most other teams. These are the Dolphins, after all. Although his rookie season wasn’t fantastic, it also wasn’t very bad either. The addition of Chad Pennington is a huge upgrade over who would have eventually been throwing to him and even though Pennington was kicked out of New York in favor of Brett Favre, he’s no wash-up. He can get his receivers the ball and with Ginn being the best receiver on the team, he’ll likely benefit the most.


20. Jabar Gaffney (NE)

After Chad Jackson’s failure of the first part of his entrance exam that would decide whether or not he was ready to be in the starting lineup, Jabar Gaffney appears primed to be New England’s WR3 (Or WR2 if you want to get technical since Welker is essentially the WR3 at the slot). Not many people believe he can put up quality fantasy numbers but if you were going to take a risk on someone you were drafting, wouldn’t you want Tom Brady throwing to him and Randy Moss and Wes Welker occupying most of the defenses attention? Uh, I would!


19. Antwaan Randle El (WAS)

Many people wrote off Antwaan Randle El when the Redskins drafted two rookie WR’s in the 2008 Draft. What they failed to take into account was that both rookies would get injured and Randle El may not take too kindly to reports that he’d be off the field soon. In a West Coast offense that will throw more, Randle El should be able to build upon his 728 yards and 1 TD from last season. Plus, there’s really no where to go for him but up in the TD department.


18. Vincent Jackson (SD)

Despite being the WR2 on a potent San Diego offense, Vincent Jackson isn’t getting much attention. This is probably due to the fact that Philip Rivers throws Antonio Gates the ball 75% of the time. Still, he’s gotten progressively better over the past two seasons and will only stand to benefit from having a full season with Chris Chambers starting opposite him. Having gained 623 yards receiving and 3 TD’s last season, he’s worth a gamble if you think he’s going to continue to progress.


17. Derrick Mason (BAL)

Despite getting up there in age, Derrick Mason put up his best year since 2004 last year. He ended up with 1,087 yards and 5 TD’s despite being thrown to by a rag-tag crew of perennial backup Kyle Boller, a past-his-prime Steve McNair and rookie 5th round pick Troy Smith. Not too bad when you put it in that perspective, I say. With just Boller and Smith likely to throw to him this year, and with both looking a lot better, Mason could very well put up similar numbers to last year yet again. Or dare I say it, improve upon them? He’s only 34 remember, which is precisely 27 years before Jerry Rice ended up retiring.


16. Justin Gage (TEN)

Ah, how we love to refuse to admit that someone who had played poorly in the past year may well end up doing the opposite the next. I for one think Vince Young is going to vastly improve upon last years performance. As the clear cut WR1 Justin Gage would benefit greatly if this proved to be the case. With 750 yards and 2 TD’s in the books for last year, Gage’s stats may grow even more as his rapport with his QB grows. Besides, since when has anyone won a fantasy league without taking some risks?


15. Donte Stallworth (CLE)

Just because he’s never topped 1,000 yards receiving doesn’t mean he never will. Donte Stallworth may also find his presence in Cleveland even more favorable then when he was in New England. In Foxboro Stallworth was essentially the teams third receiver, with Brady’s favorite targets being Randy Moss and Wes Welker. In Cleveland, he’s starting directly opposite Braylon Edwards and could turn out to be a favorite target of Derek Anderson. If Joe Jurevicius can rack up 614 yards and 3 TD’s in the Browns offense then is it out of the question to think Stallworth could have an 800 yard 6 TD season?


14. Bernard Berrian (MIN)

Some have been scared off by Berrian’s football’s being thrown to him by Tarvaris Jackson, but look where he was last year. Bernard Berrian had 951 yards and 5 TD’s last season in Chicago. In Chicago. A la, the team in Illinois who doesn’t seem to mind at all that the entire world thinks there QB’s suck every year. Even their own diehard fans. If Berrian can put up those numbers with Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton throwing to him, I say we have nothing to worry about his situation in Minnesota. Plus, Tarvaris Jackson could very well improve. We’ve only seen him start 16 total games.


13. Ronald Curry (OAK)

Ronald Curry may find himself on a poor offense, but he’s put up at least 700 yards and 1 TD in each of the last two seasons. It’s worth mentioning that those two seasons saw him on two offenses that were also poor. So poor that sometimes people would ask themselves if it was the worst offense they had ever seen (more so in 2006). With the offense with nowhere to go but up, Ronald Curry might just prove to be the best receiver on the Raiders come years end despite Javon Walker being the actual WR1. And although Walker is believed to have lost a step, his presence on the field can only help Curry.

12. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)

With Marvin Harrison’s 2008 a complete mystery to everyone, Anthony Gonzalez showed last year that he could try and fill the role with 576 receiving yards and 3 TD’s. Even if Harrison ends up being healthy and productive this year, Gonzalez has one NFL year under his belt and can begin to focus on taking advantage of the perks that come with being on the field with so many talented players. Also, Peyton Manning is his QB. Which means he‘s probably taught plays and kept in the loop of Peyton‘s acting career while in the showers.


11. Nate Burleson (SEA)

After a fantastic 2004 season that saw him amass 1006 yards and haul in 9 TD’s, Nate Burleson was just never the same. He took a step in the right direction last year with 694 yards and just as many TD’s (9). With the likelihood of Bobby Engram being absent for the first half of the year due to an injury, Burleson has seen his spot in the starting lineup officially set in stone. He’ll also be the only WR that has chemistry and rapport with Matt Hasselbeck. When all‘s said and done, it’s too crazy to imagine Burleson continuing his move back towards 2004 form.


10. Jerry Porter (JAX)

In Oakland last year, with a quality QB to throw to him nowhere in sight, Jerry Porter had 705 receiving yards and 6 TD’s. In fact, his most impressive year came in 2004 when he finished two yards shy of 1000 receiving yards and had 9 TD’s. His QB for much of that year was Kerry Collins. Yes, the very same Kerry Collins with a career 73.3 QB rating. Porter may very well find his time in Jacksonville his best yet, with a quality QB in David Garrard who is looking for a WR to mark his legacy with in return.


9. Joey Galloway (TB)

Joey Galloway has been consistently solid the past three years, putting up at least 1000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s in each. The only real downside is that he’ll be turning 37 during the season and no one likes to take chances on anyone in their late 30’s in fantasy football. Unless there’s a good reason of course and/or the first name is Brett. Even if Galloway regresses this year, it’s hard to imagine him doing it so suddenly and drastically. If he can stay healthy, Galloway could go ahead and put up his fourth solid year in a row. Hey, he’s a lot safer a pick then some other people taken in the 7th round.


8. Reggie Brown (PHI)

Even though Reggie Brown took a step back in 2007, it wasn’t so drastic and extreme to throw expectations of a turnaround out the window. He was playing on the same field as football machine Brian Westbrook after all. With the Eagles locked into Brian Westbrook for three more years, is it out of the question to think that they may not want to involve him in the offense 80 percent of the time anymore? Unless Westbrook puts up another career-year in 2008, the Eagles may very well focus a bit more on the passing game. Can you see where that was going?


7. Donald Driver (GB)

Even though Brett Favre’s departure has left many unsure about how Donald Driver will respond, he has been so consistent the past six years it’s hard to imagine him just becoming insignificant so suddenly. Barring an Aaron Rodgers busterpiece, Driver should be able to increase his TD total that dipped last year as well as come close to the 1000 yards he’s tallied minimum in each of his last 4 years.


6. Patrick Crayton (DAL)

Patrick Crayton improved in both yards and TD’s last year, finishing with 697 receiving yards and 7 TD’s. Call me crazy but with Tony Romo throwing to him and Terrell Owens starting on the other side of the field, I think he can fill Terry Glenn’s former role and put up at least 1000 this year with just as many TD’s as in 2007. His breakout year if you will. Write it down.


5. Laveranues Coles (NYJ)

Laveranues Coles was one of eleven players on the NYJ offense that benefited from Brett Favre choosing New York. Although Coles yardage numbers went down last year, his TD’s remained the same. With Brett Favre now throwing him the ball and running the offense, it wouldn’t be very surprising if both his receiving yards went back up as well as a couple more TD’s were tacked on. Jerricho Cotchery and Thomas Jones have been getting most of the hype with Favre’s arrival, but Coles could very well turn out to be the gunslingers favorite target on the team.


4. Hines Ward (PIT)

Playing a season injured would naturally cause a decline in your stats for the year and this is what we saw with Hines Ward in 2007. Still, in only thirteen games and with pain surely present many of them, Ward put up 732 receiving yards with 7 TD’s. With an off-season surgery in the books, Ward could very well bounce back healthy and return to sub-1000 receiving yards and 7 TD’s. Or he can fall by the wayside and get injured once again. I just can’t see Hines Ward falling by the wayside.


3. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)

Jerricho Cotchery’s value increase was second only to Thomas Jones due to number 4’s arrival. Cotchery broke 1000 yards receiving for the first time in his career despite seeing his TD total drop from 6 to 2 last year. It could even be argued that Cotchery should even be included in the actual top 25 rankings had the author not been skeptical of how well Brett Favre’s 2008 season would go. With the general consensus that Brett Favre > Chad Pennington, it’s safe to assume that Cotchery should put up close to the same numbers even if Favre does indeed have a bad year which would then effectively trigger the end of the world.


2. Santana Moss (WAS)

Santana Moss numbers have fluxuated up and down consistently since 2003 with his TD total finishing at an all-time low in 2007. Depending on how well Jason Campbell reacts to the West Coast offense, Moss could either be a huge beneficiary or a hopeless bystander. Even if it’s a bad year, Moss should still finish with at least 800 yards and an optimistic 5 TD’s. Best case scenario? Well, let’s just say it would be a lot more than that.



1. Roddy White (ATL)

Roddy White put his mark on the league last year, finishing with an impressive 1202 yards and 6 TD’s on what was otherwise an anemic offense. Heading into 2008 White’s QB concerns haven’t changed much, with either a rookie, under-achiever or head-scratcher set to throw him the football. White proved last year though that it didn’t really matter who was throwing to him, he could still put up the numbers. With what hopes to be the real deal in Michael Turner, White should benefit from having an actual threat on the field with him which is something he did not get to enjoy very much last year.