Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Fantasy Extravaganza: The Top 20 QB's
I was going to make this a top 30 like the running back edition but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s QB’s in order to rank the late twenties. Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!
20. Matt Leinart (ARI)
Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at QB, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed. All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest profile bust of the 2006 draft.
19. Vince Young (TEN)
Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore. With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone and his rapport with his promising WR duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.
18. Jason Campbell (WAS)
Apparently realizing their WR corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins organization attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected 2 WR’s and 1 TE in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal. If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.
17. Jon Kitna (DET)
With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supports have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get less attempts than last year, but not dramatically so due to the mix of inexperience and under-achievement that makes up the backfield. If the offensive line can manage not to give up the league lead in sacks again, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust easier than you may think. Let’s hope he shoots for fourteen wins this year.
16. Philip Rivers (SD)
Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30% of Philip Rivers career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him. Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off of off-season ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in take in fantasy football, friend.
15. Eli Manning (NYG)
Unless your in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that despite being a Super Bowl champion QB, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season. A Super Bowl win very well could have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the post-season. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as TD’s and appear perfectly okay that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes even though he was the one who fudged the route. Only time will tell but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!
14. Matt Schaub (HOU)
The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the ass when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had actually shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing! Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are “when” and “healthy”. If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.
13. Marc Bulger (STL)
To the poorly-rounded fan, Marc Bulger’s 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TD’s, 15 INT’s). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket those stats are actually quite impressive. Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact that the Rams offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit. You see, for those of us who watched most of his games -- the fact that he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completely passed instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.
12. Jay Cutler (DEN)
Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine -- causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense. Cutler has proven after last years performance that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 QB draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket! With potential question marks at receiver besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up and coming TE Tony Scheffler (and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and he has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.
11. Derek Anderson (CLE)
Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007 and if you claim otherwise, than you sir are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation. Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.
10. David Garrard (JAC)
Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move, telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich eventually imploded in Atlanta. Although many people describe a conservative QB like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.
9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proved to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proved to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with throwing once again to a question group of WR. At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many RB’s are a part of it. If it were a lesser QB, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few QB’s who no one really doubts despite not having a clear number 1 option.
8. Brett Favre (NYJ)
Although we’d like to believe otherwise now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show -- and people are taking the over! Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regards to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I for one say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.
7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis. The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of a idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games -- with anything more just being extra. Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game -- especially one coming off of a 2,000+ yards from scrimmage season. It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting QB injury risk this year -- however it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP type numbers. Ah -- decisions, decisions.
6. Carson Palmer (CIN)
Despite being on the team who’s nickname is often associated with being arrested and going to jail, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 TD’s. Yes, he had 20 INT’s which obviously isn’t good but the guy is only human. Now with Ben Utecht as the starting TE, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball! While all signs point towards another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson realized he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho Cinco fashion (1400 yards, 8 TD’s). On the other hand, you would have The Terrell Owens Saga 2: Now Featuring Chad Johnson occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.
5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Although he threw for less yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger improved upon his TD total tenfold (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps help increase Ben’s touchdown total. Of course, that would mean he would have to stay on par with his performance from last year and since his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006 and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.
4. Drew Brees (NO)
After a horrendous start to the year in which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006 -- albeit with seven more interceptions. It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy and Devery Henderson can step it up then we may again see the offensive firepower that the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl. And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying that there’s a chance that the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime. Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think that the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning as well? Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Marvin should he continue to have a decreased role -- but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo. While Anthony Gonzalez shows some promise, he’s no Reggie Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game which would mean a decreased role for Manning and thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.
2. Tony Romo (DAL)
Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when your out somewhere and you can nudge whoever your with and say, “Hey, he’s on my fantasy team.” Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don’t really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy. Back on topic, Romo has got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some. T.O. is getting up there in age but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or another the past few years. Although he is approaching 35 years old, in Terrell Owens fitness years that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet. It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.
1. Tom Brady (NE)
I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s number one, well then -- just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything period.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Arma Drama: Possible QB Controversies for the 2008 season
Never in my years of watching football can I remember there being so many opportunities for a QB controversy. Nearly half of the teams in the league (12) have a potential QB controversy in the works -- and that’s by my estimations, you could probably up it to literally half if you tried hard enough.
By QB controversy, I mean that there is a realistic chance of the starter being replaced before the mid point of the season if he isn’t performing up to par. A team’s fans have a lot to do with this, mainly because if there are two quarterbacks of similar skill on the same team, they will always, always call for the other one should the starter falter. I like to equate it to a Madden franchise when you are in a similar situation. I can’t speak for everyone but the moment my starting QB throws more than one interception and I happen to be playing with a team with a decent backup QB, I’ll bench the starter in a heartbeat. Easy as pie.
It is interesting to note that the AFC South is the only division in the league without a brewing QB controversy. You could try and make a case for Sage Rosenfels as a threat to Matt Schaub but uh, you would probably fail miserably.
The AFC East comes in first with three teams harboring potential QB battles. The NFC North would have been tied with three, but I just couldn’t entertain the thought that Gus Frerotte could ever win anything, never mind a QB battle with an up and coming QB in Tarvaris Jackson. You’re the victor already in my book, T-Jax.
As a disclaimer, I am not an expert (although it‘s fun to pretend). Some of the following teams could ride their starting QB all the way to the Super Bowl for all I know -- so feel free to disagree vehemently in the comments, per usual.
The battle: Jake Delhomme vs. Matt Moore
If Delhomme can stay healthy, this shouldn’t really be an actual battle. But therein lies the problem. Delhomme just had Tommy John surgery and there is a 20-30% chance that he will re-injure his elbow, never mind the odds of him never being the Jake Delhomme that once led the Panthers to a Super Bowl. On the other side of the fence, Matt Moore’s 2007 season didn’t win any accolades , but he did appear to get into a groove in the final three games. It’s also worth noting it was his rookie season and very, very few QB’s have had fantastic rookie seasons. Even the elite ones (I‘m looking at you, Peyton).
Projected victor: Jake Delhomme
The battle: Brody Croyle vs. Damon Huard
The good news for Croyle is that he is still relatively young and will only get better as he learns to understand the game more through in game experience. The Chiefs also showed him a bit of confidence in not pulling a Packer and drafting a QB to watch over his shoulder for the entire season. On the Damon Huard front, he had a mediocre year at best last year, leading the team to a 4-6 record when he started. It would behoove the Chiefs to just run with Croyle who should prove this year whether or not he’s the real deal. They will not win anything with Huard at the helm.
Projected victor: Brody Croyle
The battle: J.P. Losman vs. Trent Edwards
Although the Bills don’t appear to want to give up on J.P. Losman as their franchise QB, they just might have to after Trent Edwards impressive performance last year. The team went 2-4 with Losman starting in 2007, with Losman throwing for 4 TD’s and 6 INT’s. Edwards steered the team to a 5-5 record, throwing for 7 TD’s and 8 INT’s. Edwards did all of the previous in his rookie year, whereas Losman disappointed yet again in his fourth year. Advantage: Edwards.
Projected victor: Trent Edwards
The battle: Jason Campbell vs. Todd Collins
After leading the Redskins to a 5-9 record, Jason Campbell suffered a season ending injury, allowing perennial backup Todd Collins to come in and lead the Redskins to four straight wins and a playoff bid. Even though this is one of the less likely situations to be a controversy since Jason Campbell is young and Todd Collins is… uh, not -- Collins still showed he could win last year. Whether or not it was a fluke or not remains to be seen, perhaps defenses didn’t have enough game tape on him -- he certainly didn’t take the Seahawks by surprise (the Seahawks romped them, 35-14). Barring a Campbell injury or a horrible, horrible span of games, Todd Collins looks to be a backup once more.
Projected victor: Jason Campbell
The battle: Matt Leinart vs. Kurt Warner
In the five games before breaking his collarbone, Matt Leinart failed to play anywhere near a franchise QB level. A 53.6 completion percentage with 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s just wasn’t what the front office (and the fans) expected of him. His five games were actually bogged down by him being replaced by Warner multiple times, who by all accounts gave them a better chance to win despite his age. While it’s anyone’s guess as to how Leinart would have done for the whole year had he not gotten injured, he likely wouldn’t have led the Cardinals to a winning record. Still, he’s only 25 and has the potential to lead the team to the promised land that is the NFL playoffs. Kurt Warner is 36.
Projected victor: Matt Leinart
The battle: Alex Smith vs. Shaun Hill
Granted Alex Smith battled an injury bug last year, but the games he did play in were anemic at best (and I should know, I had the misfortune of starting him on my fantasy team for the first 5 games). Through six, he “led” the team to a 2-4 record, throwing for 914 yards, 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. His completion percentage was not great either, clocking in at 48.7% for the year. Meanwhile, Shaun Hill would throw for 501 yards, 5 TD’s, 1 INT and an impressive 68.4% completion percentage. Granted, the three games he played in were near the end of the year and they went 2-1 during his tenure, but he still showed he could play if given the chance. The 49ers may just have to come to terms with the fact that they struck out with their 2005 #1 draft pick. Smith was the number one pick overall, and if he hasn’t done anything by now, he’s not going to. End of story.
Projected victor: Shaun Hill
The battle: Rex Grossman vs. Kyle Orton
How the Bears brass was okay with these two players battling for the starting job for the upcoming season will never, ever make sense to me. Ever. Don’t bother trying to acquire a capable QB to run your offense, which was the sixth worst offense in the entire league. Why would you do that? While Grossman has had some success during his career, he is the quarterbacking equivalent of bipolar depression. He’s either going to throw for 2-3 TD’s and 250 yards, or he’s going to throw 4 picks and post a 38% completion percentage. I couldn’t deal with that from my quarterback if I were a coach… my head would explode. Kyle Orton on the other hand only played in 3 games last year but didn’t look much better. Although Orton did have a successful rookie year in 2005, he was demoted behind Brian Griese and Rex Grossman in 2006. The Bears apparently didn’t have too much faith in him. Out of the two, it would appear Orton is the lesser of two evils, although Grossman gives the offense a bigger upside. And hey, they still have him on the team so maybe they’re shooting for upside…
Projected victor: Rex Grossman
The battle: Josh McCown vs. John Beck vs. Chad Henne
It is worth noting that Josh McCown, who is listed as #1 on the Dolphins depth chart at the current moment, has never had a year in his six year career in which he threw more touchdowns than interceptions. That’s all you need to know about him. Highly touted rookie QB John Beck left much to be desired as well, putting up numbers that I will not go through the trouble to look up. He struggled, let’s just put it that way. Lastly, is rookie Chad Henne who when placed among the other two clearly stands out as the way to go. While the Dolphins may give Beck another chance, don’t expect McCown to start too much unless injuries demand it.
Projected victor: Chad Henne
The battle: Chad Pennington vs. Kellen Clemens
The new guard versus the old guard. Pennington, who had a resurgent year in 2006, regressed in 2007 due to injuries. At one point, Jets fans even cheered when he was injured and walking off the field because they were apparently ecstatic for the Kellen Clemens era to begin. At least that’s what I’m telling myself because it was such a classless thing to do. The team would go 3-4 under Clemens, who had some shining moments but generally looked like a first year quarterback should. The Jets can either go with Pennington, who likely gives them a better shot at the postseason, or thrust Pennington into the mentor role and throw Clemens back into the fire.
Projected victor: Chad Pennington
The battle: Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Brohm
Rodgers, whose finally gotten his chance to start in the wake of Brett Favre’s retirement will be constantly checking his rear view mirror for Brohm. Although Rodgers is entering his fourth year in the league, he is still technically a rookie QB. This puts Brohm on a level playing field with him and depending on how things turn out, the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay might never begin. If Rodgers succeeds, the Packers situation would be eerily similar to the Browns. A capable starting QB who will always have a talented younger player waiting in the wings. Not too much fun for the starter, but for the team -- not a bad place to be.
Projected victor: Aaron Rodgers
The battle: Chris Redman vs. Joey Harrington vs. Matt Ryan
Joey Harrington has proven over the years that he is a career service QB. He can put up numbers but he cannot win and is best used in pinch situations or if you have no where else to turn. Chris Redman, whose career in Baltimore is best described as a learning experience, actually looked very good last year. In four complete games, although the Falcons went 1-3, he threw for 2,147 yards, 10 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Whether or not that performance will win him favor over rookie Matt Ryan remains to be seen. The Falcons best bet would be to throw Matt Ryan into the starting role and give him some on the job experience. I doubt they can go to the playoffs with Chris Redman or Joey Harrington at QB, so 2008 might as well be used as the year that Matt Ryan is forged into a professional QB.
Projected victor: Matt Ryan
The battle: Kyle Boller vs. Joe Flacco
Kyle Boller, like Joey Harrington, has proven he cannot be a starting QB for an entire year (or at least not a winning one). Joe Flacco, who was highly praised of during the draft looks to be the one for the job. As with the other rookie QB situations, it will all hinge upon how the Ravens organization wants to approach Flacco’s indoctrination into the NFL. They may start out with Boller to begin the season, but quickly switch to Flacco when it goes sour.
Projected victor: Joe Flacco
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
NFL Draft Positional Breakdown: Quarterbacks
Yes, that’s right, it’s yet another NFL Draft article from yours truly. But since we’re less than a week away from the actual thing and with the AGM Mock Draft going on as we speak, I figured it would be okay. Let’s hope so.
The positional breakdown will break down the Top 5 players at each given position. It is not a list on how I think the quarterbacks will be drafted, just on what I think their skill level is and how successful of an NFL career they will have. And no, I’m not doing every single position (I’m not that crazy) so I’ll be breaking it down to rank the skill positions, defensive lineman, offensive lineman, linebackers, etc. As always, please enjoy.
Yeah, that’s right -- I did it. Matt Ryan is going to go ahead of Brohm in the draft, obviously, but I honestly believe in my heart that Brian Brohm is going to have a more successful career. Also, if I had to have one of the two quarterbacks for my own team (if I had one), it would be Brohm. I just think he is more talented. Don’t forget, Brohm was the unanimous number one last year if he had chosen to come out -- and he really didn’t take too much of a step backward this year other than having a less talented team. It puzzles me to no end how he isn’t the number one ranked quarterback.
2007 stats: 4,024 yards, 30 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 65.1% completion percentage
Not to say that I don’t think Ryan is talented. He’s very talented and I agree that he has some of the intangibles that make a great quarterback. All of last year, Ryan did more with less -- but that still doesn’t make him a better quarterback than Brohm. But please look at their stats before commencing with the bashing! Criticism aside, he still could save the Falcons franchise should they choose to take him. Or at least I hope so, for their sake.
2007 stats: 4,258 yards, 28 TD’s, 18 INT’s, 60.3% completion percentage
I’ve heard many people say that they believe that Joe Flacco will be the steal of the draft, quarterbacks wise. I haven’t seen enough of his game film to agree, but from what I have watched and from the stats I have studied, he certainly has what it takes. It’s hard to compare the stats from Flacco to someone else from such a stronger conference, but you have to admit they are still quite impressive.
2007 stats: 4,263 yards, 23 TD’s, 5 INT’s, 63.5% completion percentage
In my opinion, Woodson will be the steal of the draft. He’s going to go in the second to third round and is a great value pick for whoever gets him. Yes, he played for Kentucky whose schedule wasn’t the hardest in the country last year -- but the kid had a fantastic year. It makes you wonder about the whole recruiting process when it comes to quarterbacks. Some of the best quarterbacks in NFL history have come after the first two rounds. Yet we still swear by assuming anyone taken in the mid to late rounds just cannot be a superstar.
2007 stats: 3,709 yards, 40 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 63.1% completion percentage
Henne took a step back in 2007 but to be fair, so did his team. He has solid raw talent and if mentored under the right quarterback, could have a very respectable career. It’s also worth noting that he was a four year starter in the Big 10 and his senior year was riddled with various injuries. So, his stats are deceiving. Being essentially the fifth best quarterback in the entire draft makes this in my opinion, one of the most talented all around quarterback classes I have ever seen.
2007 stats: 1,938 yards, 17 TD’s, 9 INT’s, 58.3% completion percentage
Honorable mentions:
Colt Brennan - A lot of people think Brennan will be a good quarterback, and so do I -- but it will be interesting to see him on a level playing field when it comes to competition. Having played at Hawaii, he didn’t play too many elite teams every Saturday.
Dennis Dixon - Dixon is my sleeper of the entire draft. Had he not gotten injured at the end of the year, he very well could have led the Oregon Ducks charge for a national championship. He also has in my opinion, one of the best releases in the entire draft and can scramble with the best of them.
