Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Fantasy Extravaganza: The Top 20 QB's
I was going to make this a top 30 like the running back edition but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s QB’s in order to rank the late twenties. Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!
20. Matt Leinart (ARI)
Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at QB, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed. All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest profile bust of the 2006 draft.
19. Vince Young (TEN)
Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore. With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone and his rapport with his promising WR duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.
18. Jason Campbell (WAS)
Apparently realizing their WR corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins organization attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected 2 WR’s and 1 TE in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal. If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.
17. Jon Kitna (DET)
With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supports have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get less attempts than last year, but not dramatically so due to the mix of inexperience and under-achievement that makes up the backfield. If the offensive line can manage not to give up the league lead in sacks again, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust easier than you may think. Let’s hope he shoots for fourteen wins this year.
16. Philip Rivers (SD)
Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30% of Philip Rivers career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him. Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off of off-season ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in take in fantasy football, friend.
15. Eli Manning (NYG)
Unless your in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that despite being a Super Bowl champion QB, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season. A Super Bowl win very well could have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the post-season. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as TD’s and appear perfectly okay that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes even though he was the one who fudged the route. Only time will tell but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!
14. Matt Schaub (HOU)
The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the ass when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had actually shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing! Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are “when” and “healthy”. If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.
13. Marc Bulger (STL)
To the poorly-rounded fan, Marc Bulger’s 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TD’s, 15 INT’s). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket those stats are actually quite impressive. Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact that the Rams offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit. You see, for those of us who watched most of his games -- the fact that he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completely passed instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.
12. Jay Cutler (DEN)
Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine -- causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense. Cutler has proven after last years performance that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 QB draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket! With potential question marks at receiver besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up and coming TE Tony Scheffler (and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and he has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.
11. Derek Anderson (CLE)
Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007 and if you claim otherwise, than you sir are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation. Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.
10. David Garrard (JAC)
Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move, telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich eventually imploded in Atlanta. Although many people describe a conservative QB like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.
9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proved to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proved to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with throwing once again to a question group of WR. At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many RB’s are a part of it. If it were a lesser QB, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few QB’s who no one really doubts despite not having a clear number 1 option.
8. Brett Favre (NYJ)
Although we’d like to believe otherwise now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show -- and people are taking the over! Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regards to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I for one say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.
7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis. The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of a idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games -- with anything more just being extra. Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game -- especially one coming off of a 2,000+ yards from scrimmage season. It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting QB injury risk this year -- however it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP type numbers. Ah -- decisions, decisions.
6. Carson Palmer (CIN)
Despite being on the team who’s nickname is often associated with being arrested and going to jail, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 TD’s. Yes, he had 20 INT’s which obviously isn’t good but the guy is only human. Now with Ben Utecht as the starting TE, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball! While all signs point towards another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson realized he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho Cinco fashion (1400 yards, 8 TD’s). On the other hand, you would have The Terrell Owens Saga 2: Now Featuring Chad Johnson occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.
5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Although he threw for less yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger improved upon his TD total tenfold (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps help increase Ben’s touchdown total. Of course, that would mean he would have to stay on par with his performance from last year and since his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006 and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.
4. Drew Brees (NO)
After a horrendous start to the year in which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006 -- albeit with seven more interceptions. It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy and Devery Henderson can step it up then we may again see the offensive firepower that the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl. And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.
3. Peyton Manning (IND)
It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying that there’s a chance that the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime. Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think that the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning as well? Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Marvin should he continue to have a decreased role -- but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo. While Anthony Gonzalez shows some promise, he’s no Reggie Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game which would mean a decreased role for Manning and thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.
2. Tony Romo (DAL)
Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when your out somewhere and you can nudge whoever your with and say, “Hey, he’s on my fantasy team.” Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don’t really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy. Back on topic, Romo has got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some. T.O. is getting up there in age but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or another the past few years. Although he is approaching 35 years old, in Terrell Owens fitness years that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet. It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.
1. Tom Brady (NE)
I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s number one, well then -- just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything period.
Monday, August 4, 2008
A Case For DeAngelo Williams
Since the middle of last year, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen about how 2008 will be DeAngelo Williams’ breakout year. I sincerely believed it and still do, but it's gotten progressively harder with each passing month. He has things to work on, he has fundamentals to learn and now has a talented young rookie ready to take the starting job. If Williams can clear up the problems he has with blocking and picking up the blitz, he has the talent to not only keep the majority of carries, but keep them for a long time.Word out of Panthers camp is that they’ve more or less given up on him as the starter due to his pass protection issues and view him mainly as a supplementary, third-down back. Never one to go back on a prediction unless there’s blatant evidence to the contrary staring me in the face, I decided to try and go into some of the reasons the Panthers shouldn’t give up on Williams just yet. Plus, it keeps the hope alive since there may or may not have been some money wagered on this very topic.
Williams has seen some injuries both in college and the pros and many believe that at 5’9” and 217 pounds he doesn’t have what it takes to withstand the vigor’s that come with being a starting running back. Coming to this conclusion years from now would be okay, but Williams is going into his third NFL season. Third. There's plenty of evidence to support that it just takes some players a couple of years to get their bodies and minds on the NFL level. Late bloomers, if you will. But just because may bloom late doesn't mean that they can't bloom at all.
The perfect example? Brian Westbrook. Westbrook had a similar rep for getting injured from time to time and at 5’10” and 203 pounds he is almost anatomically identical to Williams. Early on in his career he too wasn’t considered a starting running back but over time he has proven to be fully capable and a dual threat weapon that gives defenses and opposing fantasy owners alike fits.
Westbrook and Williams’ receiving stats from their first two years are nearly identical (418 and 488 yards respectably), with Williams rushing for around 400 more yards than Westbrook (1,218 compared to 806 yards).
It’s hard to believe that Williams isn’t working as hard as he can on his blocking deficiencies if that’s the major reason the organization is weary of him becoming the starter. He’s only been in the league two years, playing the third down back/speedster with good hands role the entire time. Either he hasn’t had enough solid in game experience to become proficient at it or maybe he was trying to do too much and hit a home run with every carry.
The Panthers have gone 15-17 the past two years and for most of 2007 didn’t have a competent quarterback under center. With the QB not really a threat, defenses had no problems using different blitzing packages to counter-attack the run and rush the passer. Is it that much of a stretch to think that maybe the different combinations of blitzes the Panthers offense faced last year had a tad to do with Williams’ inability to pick them up? Either that, or maybe he didn't really take blocking too seriously in his early years. With age, perhaps he realizes that although he's got the rushing skills, he needs to have the blocking skills as well. I get epiphanies like this every day. There along the lines of realizing I actually need to budget my money and the like, but there epiphanies none-the-less.
Although Williams may have been partially to blame, the offensive line should be taking some heat, especially considering the Panthers QB’s were sacked once every 15.3 plays last season. Assuming Delhomme returns to a healthy form, some solid studying of blitz packages and a better understanding of who to block when under assignment in the backfield, Williams should be just fine. There's no question he has the rushing skills to be successful, at least not in my mind.
Williams has more rushing yards than all but four of the running backs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft and he’s had 50-200 less carries than the top five. He also has the fourth highest receiving yards out of all of the 2006 rookie running backs and considering that everyone who has ahead of him in rushing and reception yards are starters, it’s safe to assume that Williams could be an feature back if he was just given more snaps.
With nearly every team drifting towards a running back by committee, the Panthers already have one set up for the future. If Williams can fix his affinity for blocking, picking up the blitz and getting the occasional injury, the Panthers organization would be crazy not to give him a chance to be the starter out of this young committee.
JG8D69D
A Fantasy Extravaganza: Top 30 Running Backs
With approximately 75 fantasy football magazines currently available at any given supermarket, it is safe to assume that the fantasy football season has officially begun. In order to get myself ready, and because I’m so nice I have ranked the top 30 skill position players and then provided the in-depth commentary on why I have done so. Will my rankings differ from yours or many of the other rankings out there? Uh, is an apple different than a stapler? YES! Opinions on all rankings will vary, but just remember that all of the rankings out there are just that, opinion and speculation. My intention is for these rankings to get your mental, fantasy-sports-related juices flowing if they haven't already. Also, due to possible fantasy league spies these rankings may be slightly different from my actual rankings. Or they may not. Only I will know and that’s just the way I’m going to keep it!
As always, enjoy and feel free to disagree vehemently while calling for my head in the comments.
WARNING: This whole thing is pretty long, so you better have some free time to read it or at least be bored at work. Either that or print it out -- it makes excellent bathroom reading, I've heard.
TOP 30 FANTASY RUNNING BACKS
30. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Although my support for DeAngelo Williams is well documented, even I can’t deny that the talented rookie Jonathan Stewart will win the Panthers starting job. He has power, he has speed and he apparently has the support of nearly every single person in the Panthers organization save for Williams himself. Barring a major setback in his recovery from a turf toe injury, Stewart should be the new rusher in town as well as provide your team with a decent amount of fantasy points.
29. Julius Jones (SEA) - Even though Jones never did stand out in the Cowboys offense, playing second fiddle to Marion “The Barbarian” Barber and all, a change of scenery and a new offense that will favor the running game might be just what Julius needs. T.J. Duckett will take much of the goal lines carries away, but Jones should be given the bulk of the overall workload. He’s definitely an upside pick, so don’t put too much stake in him or you may regret it when he puts up similar stats from when he was in Dallas.
28. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) - Regardless of Willie Parker’s rankings free fall due to his broken leg and low 2007 TD total, he will still be the go to guy in Pittsburgh. Mendenhall on the other hand is an upside pick with not a lot of risk since he’s going to be getting most of the goal line carries and spelling an often fragile Parker, anyway.
27. LenDale White (TEN) - Despite playing in an offense with hardly any passing game, White sprung upon the scene last year with 1,108 yards and 7 TD’s. With this being Vince Young’s second year with his primary receivers, White should enjoy an increased amount of defenses dropping more people back to defend the pass. Or at least that’s what the Titans organization hopes. Regardless, even though rookie Chris Johnson may spell him, White should see the majority of carries and goal line attempts.
26. Thomas Jones (NYJ) - The fact that T.J. had a total of two TD’s last year has overshadowed that he managed to rack up 1,119 yards behind one of the worst lines in the league. The off-season signings of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should ensure that he will at least have a competent offensive line. It’s a risky pick because he’s either going to excel with his improved blockers or flop and show everyone that he just doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter. That decision is up to you.
25. Darren McFadden (OAK) - Despite being touted as the best back in the NFL draft, McFadden is not the top back in most running back rankings. This is likely due to the fact that McFadden will be lining up behind JaMarcus Russell, who is still technically a rookie himself. Since it takes inexperienced quarterbacks a lot longer to get acquainted with the game than their running back counterparts, McFadden will get a plethora of carries and an official diploma from the NFL’s rookie running back university.
24. Fred Taylor (JAX) - The past couple years has seen Fred Taylor do the exact opposite of what everyone had predicted him to do, with that opposite being him producing. Taylor has had more than 1100 yards and at least 5 TD’s in each of his last two seasons. While it’s hard to imagine him just suddenly dropping off, he is 32 years old and it is going to happen eventually. The question is, when? With Maurice Jones Drew entering his third season and maturing all the while, Taylor may still be productive this year but not enough to warrant a key RB spot on your roster. Although he is a solid and safe late round pick. Do with it what you will.
23. Matt Forte (CHI) - With news of the release of team castoff and Ricky Williams-esque Cedric Benson, Forte’s stock has soared. Even before he was the unanimous number one back on the roster, Forte had created a buzz that was not heard during the Draft due to his emergence from Conference USA. Although the Bears themselves have proclaimed the rookie as their starter, he still finds himself on the Bears offense which has question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and pretty much ever single position except for running back. So despite him getting the majority of all the carries, don’t expect his rookie year to be Adrian Peterson-esque. Think more along the lines of a poor mans, rookie Marshawn Lynch.
22. Michael Turner (ATL) - How Michael Turner will turn out can likely be put in a better perspective when you take into account his performance last year when he filled in for an injured L.T. in the playoffs. Although 3.8 yards per carry isn’t necessarily bad, it was a bit worse than his career average that he’d racked up shredding fatigued defenses as Tomlinson’s backup until that point. That was then. Now, Turner finds himself on a Falcons team that is in the process of rebuilding with inexperience at many key parts of the offense. Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his contract, Turner’s quarterback Matt Ryan is actually a rookie, who will go through the learning curves that plague all rookie signal callers.
21. Edgerrin James (ARI) - Edge has officially turned the magical yet dreadful age of 30, which is the benchmark age for when running backs will begin to decline. After a largely disappointing 2006 considering his success in Indianapolis, Edge improved slightly in 2007 in yards, average and TD’s. Although 1,224 yards and 7 TD’s isn’t necessarily bad, it is safe to say that it may be very close to his ceiling now that he’s turned the big three-oh. Even with promise of a more balanced attack, the Cardinals offensive line is still unfortunately the same and it is likely Edgerrin’s stats will stay that way as well.
20. Willie Parker (PIT) - With Parker’s 11 TD decline from 2006 into 2007, breaking his leg late in the season didn’t help his fantasy stock. The arrival of rookie Rashard Mendenhall also didn’t bode well for his future TD total either. What Parker does bring to the table is the yardage that he racks up. He is still an incredibly skilled rusher that can put up big numbers on the ground no matter how TD-less or injury prone his season may be.
19. Brandon Jacobs (N.Y.G.) - The heir to Tiki Barber’s throne after his retirement, Jacobs proved he could handle the job when healthy. Unfortunately for Jacobs, so did Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s recent court troubles could get him suspended if the event in question happened post-draft. A Bradshaw suspension could be all Jacobs needs to claim the starters spot once and for all so it would behoove you to keep an eye on the situation.
18. Jamal Lewis (CLE) - Even though the Browns offense and more importantly offensive line have largely remained the same, many are still doubting Lewis can repeat his 2007 success. Without a suitable backup or a threat to steal some of his goal line carries, the only thing that could stop Lewis from continuing upon last year’s success is either injury or age. Lewis is approaching 30 and the enormous amount of carries he has on his odometer has to take it’s toll at some point. It’s hard to imagine his decline happening so quickly and suddenly without some type of injury, though.
17. Lawrence Maroney (N.E.) - Being the RB on one of the best passing games of all time doesn’t leave you in a position to get tons of carries. Nor does it help having a coach who likes to spell his backfield every two downs or so. Entering his 3rd season and with Kevin Faulk likely to see a decreased role, Maroney is a prime candidate to breakout this year. Unfortunately, “breaking out” for a running back on the Patriots offense means about 1,100 yards and 8 TD’s. On the bright side, that’s still better than Rudi Johnson who you targeted last year.
16. Reggie Bush (N.O.) - Reggie Bush is a classic case of too much hype due to college performance. Although Bush has proven he is a worthy complimentary rusher and a skilled receiving back, the Barry Sanders like expectations have left many disappointed after his first two seasons in the league. With his rushing skills likely to improve over time, it may just take him a few more years until he’s a suitable starter. Even in his current complimentary situation, his rushing yards and receiving yards combined equal enough points to make him a worthy target in your draft. Not to mention his ceiling would have him turning into a Brian Westbrook type back. Not bad. I we think we can finally chill out with comparing Hall of Fame players to rookies that are being drafted, though. No?
15. Earnest Graham (T.B.) - Graham proved to be one of the most valuable, out-of-the-blue waiver wire pickups of the 2008 season. The only option after injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, Graham nearly rumbled himself to 1,000 yards, finishing instead with 898 and 10TD’s. With Warrick Dunn’s return to Tampa, Graham will likely lose some carries, but he can easily claim the starting spot if he can prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. 175 fantasy points if you can guess correctly!
14. Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Although his recovery from an ACL tear is a major concern, Brown benefits from sustaining the injury early in the season last year as well as returning to a vastly improved Dolphins offense. With Ricky Williams back in town, he likely won’t need to carry all of the load immediately as long as Williams stays away from the reefer. Brown is still a risky pick, but as 602 yards and 7 TD’s in 7 games last year showed, not one without a potential hefty reward.
13. Willis McGahee (BAL) - Even though the Ravens have major question marks on offense, the rushing game is not one of them. A top notch rusher and capable receiver, McGahee should top 300 carries for the first time since 2005 due to the sub-par and inexperienced options at quarterback. Although his new and improved ACL will be tested under such a workload, if he can handle the strain and put up his usual numbers than his fantasy numbers will be just fine. Even if he is in on one of the worst offensive units in the game.
12. Larry Johnson (K.C.) - A slow start, poor passing game and foot injury all contributed to Johnson’s worst season as a starter last year. Even if he can avoid the slow start and injuries this year, the Chiefs still have no passing attack and the shoddy offensive line remains the same. Although he‘ll get his carries, he will also be the focal point of every defense the team plays. Good thing we’ve seen what he can do before so you can educated decision on whether or not to take the gamble. The upside is high, although the downside is low. Take your pick.
11. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) - Even with Fred Taylor still going strong, Jones-Drew should slowly but surely take over primary back duties. With a rushing average of a bit more than 5 yards per carry average in his first two years, superb hands out of the backfield and game breaking ability, Jones-Drew’s low touches are overshadowed by his supreme upside. Whenever he takes over the reigns in Jacksonville and gets more time on the field, expect his value to skyrocket up the charts. Even if this year is not his year, he still pumps out a solid amount of fantasy points and presents upside that is hard to pass up on.
10. Ryan Grant (G.B.) - Grant won biggest out-of-the-blue honors in 2007 and helped many teams win championships had they had the clarity to pick him. I for one ended up taking Priest Holmes over Grant with my last waiver wire pick up in my keeper league. Suffice to say, I did not make the playoffs and will probably never forgive myself. Grant placed a firm hold on the starter position with his end of the season performances last year and isn’t realistically threatened by anyone as long as he can continue production and stay away from injuries. Therein lies the catch, however. The question is if Grant will be able to continue his break-out year last year and stay away from the injuries that can plague a starting RB. All aren’t huge concerns but worth taking into account should you find yourself about to draft him.
9. Marion Barber (DAL) - Anyone with the nickname “The Barbarian” had to have earned it somewhere down the line and it’s no surprise if you’ve seen Barber run. He is a powerful, agile back who doesn’t stop running until the whistle blows. He has a wreck less abandon for anything but positive yardage and ultimately the end zone. Even with Jerry Jones favorite Felix Jones being plugged into the offense and taking some carries away, Barber will be the goal line back and Barber will get the majority of the carries. You can’t be the best back on one of the best offenses in the league for nothing, you know.
8. Frank Gore (S.F.) - Gore’s 1,102 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards and 6 total TD’s isn’t very impressive at first glance, but take into account that he did it all on the worst offense and the league and you’ve got yourself a better picture. Gore was the only bright spot on an otherwise anemic 49ers offense last year. Having brought in Mike Martz to fix the offense has caused many people to declare Gore a sleeper for next year. Since I still don’t know the correct definition of sleeper, all I will say is that if Martz can turn Alex Smith into a competent QB than Gore has the talent to reap all of the rushing and receiving rewards a Martz system has to offer the starting RB. His rushing total may go down, but his receptions, receiving yards and total TD’s should all go up. Cha-ching!
7. Marshawn Lynch (BUF) - Lynch is another RB who put up impressive stats on a not-so-impressive offense. In 13 games last year he ran for 1,115 yards and 7 TD’s. With Trent Edwards looking to be everything J.P. Losman was not, Lynch at least has a suitable and blossoming passing game to take some attention away from him. Rumor has it that the Bills will also be utilizing Lynch’s pass catching skills a lot more this year which in layman‘s terms means he‘ll be on the field even more. An injury last year is a small concern as to his dependability, but a year through the gauntlet should have taught him what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.
6. Clinton Portis (DEN) - Portis returned to pre-2006 form last year, finishing in the Top 5 for fantasy points accrued. A new system has turned some people off as to Portis’ 2008 potential, but he is too talented a player not to utilize half of the offensive play calling on. Though he’ll likely see less carries, Portis should still fare just fine, especially considering his pass catching skills. Portis caught 47 balls for 389 yards last year and although he’ll get less carries, he’ll get more receptions. It all evens out. Trust me.
5. Joseph Addai (IND) - Although Addai didn’t get as many yards as the top RB’s last year, he more than compensated with his end zone trips. Addai had 15 total TD’s last year to pair with a solid 1,072 rushing yards and 364 reception yards. He’s the top back on one of the most prolific offenses in the game, but his total upside keeps him out of the upper-echelon. If your looking for a safe pick who will have plenty of opportunities to score TD’s than Addai is your guy. Although enjoying Peyton Manning’s commercials also helps.
4. Stephen Jackson (STL) - In only twelve games and behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game, Jackson still managed to amass just over 1,000 yards and tack on 6 total TD’s. With a healthy offensive line and a more run-heavy offense, Jackson could very well return to pre-2007 form, where he was in the conversation for top running back overall. He gives you rushing yards, he gives you reception yards and he scores TD’s. Injuries are a problem due to last year, but should his offensive line remain healthy, he should cruise through the season with little to no problems.
3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) - As fantastic as Peterson was last year and as much hype as he caused, I still find it hard to rank a back who’s had one fantastic year over a back who’s had them for his entire seven-year career. Peterson very well could prove that he’s the top running back in the game this year, however his quarterback is questionable and his backup running back proved he could do a suitable job if given spell-carries. If A.P. can have an equally impressive Year 2, he’ll not only win over just me, he’ll likely win over the entire game of professional football. We’ll be watching!
2. LaDainian Tomlinson (S.D.) - Tomlinson has basically been a machine until he showed us his mortality with an MCL injury in the playoffs. He has been the face of fantasy football since he stormed upon the league in 2001 and with good reason: He can run, he can catch, he can score and if you haven’t heard -- he’s awfully classy! With the birthday cake reading 29 this year, L.T. may finally see the decline we thought impossible for so many years. Even so, he’ll still likely put up top-notch numbers this year and many years down the road. His upside is way too high to not warrant him at least a number 2 ranking.
1. Brian Westbrook (PHI) - After gaining sole control of the Eagles RB spot sometime in 2005, Brian Westbrook has made a steady improvement in his game and more importantly, his fantasy points. The year 2006 saw the biggest jump while Westbrook showed us in 2007 then he can run for more yards as well as improve on his already ridiculous reception numbers. Going into 2008 he is the whole package. He does everything you could want from your featured fantasy running back and he does it while proving his injury critics incorrect. Having played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons, Westbrook is slated for perhaps the finest season of his career in 2008. At age 28, he could very well have his peak season this year. Even if he has peaked and he backpedals a bit, 240 fantasy points isn’t too bad for a RB’s low side is it? Is it? Hello? Is anyone still reading this?
Public Service Announcement: Sport Crack is now Fantasy Football Crack
With my writing services now spanning many different web sites, I've decided it is physically impossible to continue and focus this site on every single sport. Instead, it will turn back into it's roots and be strictly about football -- primarily, fantasy football.Plus, now the name of the site makes even MORE sense since everyone knows that fantasy football is a common synonym for crack.
Expect all sorts of different fantasy articles -- ranging from pre-draft rankings, player updates, weekly analysis and all sorts of other goodies that I can't think of right now. So stay tuned!
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Brett Favre's Potential Destination Odds
With a new rumor in regards to Brett Favre being broken just about every hour, I think it’s safe to assume that he might not stay retired. Wait a second, you knew that when he retired? Oh, well since it’s looking less and less likely he’s going to end up with the Packers, and with the potential of Aaron Rodgers attempting to kill him and all, I figured we should take a look at the potential places Favre might end up. You know, because there’s not enough stories about the whole thing already.

Odds: Likely
The Redskins are a likely landing spot if only because Daniel Snyder won’t hesitate to offer Favre a 1 year 45 million dollar contract.
Odds: Highly unlikely
This isn’t going to happen unless Favre is very, very pissed with the Packers organization for some reason. There’s no way he'd do this to the Packer fans, although it would make for an interesting Packers/Vikings Week 1 primetime match up.
Odds: Likely
No matter how legendary a career he had in Green Bay, Packer fans are going to be none to happy about seeing him play in another NFL uniform.
Odds: Unlikely
No real reason for Favre to end up here, unless the Buccaneer organization wants to break the most active quarterbacks on a depth chart record.
Odds: Likely
Assuming he doesn’t return to the NFL, ESPN has the dough to sign him and he could be their NFL Life retirement expert. He’ll be able to tell us which of the players that have retired will stay retired.
Odds: Unfortunately unlikely
The Falcons need a veteran quarterback and they need one badly. Unfortunately for them, they spent a small fortune on a rookie QB who has yet to play an NFL down. The future's looking bright for the Falcons!
Odds: Impossible
Impossible, but hilarious none-the-less. Imagine Rodgers coming home for dinner and walking in the front door and finding Brett stuffing his mouth with mashed potatoes. He very well could go insane.
Odds: Sort of likely
This is actually a legit, circulating rumor. It would make sense for them to sign him, but only if they’ve given up on or don’t rust the health of Jake Delhomme.
Odds: Not very likely
This is another circulating rumor, which is strange since Favre signing with the Bears would be nearly as traitorous as signing with the Vikings.
Odds: Very likely
If he's going to go somewhere, it looks like it's not going to be with the Packers.
If you told me this would be the most likely route in the Favre drama a couple months ago, I would have called you insane. But it seems that if Favre does come back, signing with the Packers would involve a lot of complications and by all accounts, the organization wants to move on.