SportsCrack

Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings: Opposing Pass Defense

For the tiered opposing run defense rankings: CLICK HERE

Welcome to the second part of the Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings. If you haven’t read part one, these rankings will allow you to assign a filtered, position-specific value to a team based on the quality of the run or pass defenses they will be playing that year. Then you can apply it to all of the applicable players and viola, you have yet another statistic to give you an edge come draft day.

I took last seasons performance into account as well as off-season pickups, departures and rookie signings and then ranked the pass defenses into tiers. Once that was done I assigned a point value to each tier level and then plugged in that number into every team’s schedule. What I got, besides feeling like I was in elementary school again, were the rankings you will soon read. First off though, the tier rankings:


(No points) Tier 8 - The Tempurpedic Secondary Tier

Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons


(1 point) Tier 7 - The Tendency To Cause Pass Happiness Tier

New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals


(2 points) Tier 6 - The Works In Progress/Regress Tier

Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns


(3 points) Tier 5 - The Required To Be An Optimist Tier

Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers


(4 points) Tier 4 - The Solid Pass Defense But With Questions Tier

Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers


(6 points) Tier 3 - The Assuredly Pesky Tier

New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans


(8 points) Tier 2 - The Hazardous To Your Passing Game Tier

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets


(10 points) Tier 1 - The Shutdown Pass Defense Tier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers


Since we already started with tiers, I decided to take a left turn (to the run defense SOS’s right) and rank the difficulty of the schedules with tiers as well. The last article was extremely long so I tried to shorten the analysis a bit this time around. I’m afraid I wasn’t too successful, though.

The tiers are listed, followed by the teams within it and then a list of players that the schedule may affect the most in the real world and in turn the fantasy world. Players with question marks next to their names may prove to be controversial but remember it is all speculation. Capping everything off is a quick blurb about each team because I just couldn’t resist.

Enough jibber-jabber. The schedule rankings (from difficult to easy):

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Tier 6 - Incredibly difficult

Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans

Players the schedule may affect the most: Derek Anderson, everyone in the Ravens passing attack, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates (?)


Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense is just too potent to warrant downgrading any of them. Besides, they had one of the toughest passing defense schedule’s last year and ended up just fine.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s highly likely that whoever starts for the Ravens between Kyle Boller and Troy Smith will not end up doing to well considering the teams schedule. Although, many were leaning towards that conclusion before taking the schedule into account.

San Diego Chargers

Say what you want about Philip Rivers (I sure have), but he had one of the toughest schedules last year in regards to the passing defenses he faced.

Cleveland Browns

Derek Anderson shrunk in the spotlight at the end of last year and failed to impress when facing teams with quality pass defenses. Luckily for us (and maybe Brady Quinn), we’ll see his true colors in the first two games of the year which are against the Cowboys and Steelers, respectively.

Houston Texans

The Texans were another team with one of the toughest pass defense schedules in the NFL last year. Three of Matt Schaub’s nine starts came against top passing defenses. Taking that into account along with the fact it was his first full year as a starting QB helps put things into a better perspective. Trying to throw in the running game into the equation? Not as much success.

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Tier 5 - Above average difficulty

Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers

Players the schedule may affect the most: Tony Romo (?), Jason Witten, Brodie Croyle, everyone in the Falcons passing attack, whoever wins the Patriots WR3 job


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had one of the easiest pass defense schedules in the league last year yet Tony Romo still managed to throw 19 interceptions. How much of his 4000+ yards and 36 TD’s were influenced by the secondary’s he faced? Note: There isn’t an actual answer to that question.

Kansas City Chiefs

An incredibly interesting thing to note about Brodie Croyle: All of his six starts that he lost came against a top-tier passing defense. The Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Broncos, Titans and Jets. Maybe we should cut the kid a break? Who’s with me?

New England Patriots

The Patriots had a marginally difficult schedule against passing defenses last year, although you wouldn’t have known it by watching them play. The only teams that were able to stay on close to the same level with them were the Jets and Dolphins, both late in the season. With Jason Taylor’s departure likely to send ripples through the secondary, the Jets pass defense stands as the only one in the division that can challenge the Patriots passing attack.

Tennessee Titans

Fact: Vince Young didn’t have a very good year last year. Fact: Seven of his fifteen starts came against top 10 passing defenses. Fiction: Young had a suitable group of receivers to throw to during the aforementioned starts. Fact: I love fact and fiction breakdowns. Hmm, interesting.

Atlanta Falcons

Reports out of Atlanta suggest that the Falcons are planning on throwing Matt Ryan to the dogs his rookie season a la Peyton Manning. Barring a rookie season for the ages, expect a steep learning curve for Matty Ice.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers find themselves with a few more games against high quality passing defenses this year than in the last. However they also find themselves with a more balanced and well-rounded offense heading into the season. As long as Ben Roethlisberger can stay off his motorcycle, the Steelers passing offense should be just fine.

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Tier 4 - Not too bad/Average schedule

New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks

Players the schedule may affect or benefit the most: Eli Manning (affect), Trent Edwards (benefit), Lee Evans (benefit), David Garrard (benefit), Jay Cutler (benefit)


New York Giants

Believe it or not, Eli Manning actually had one of the easiest passing defense schedules last year. You wouldn’t have known it by looking at his 23/20 TD’s to interceptions ratio from last year however. To be fair, brother Peyton didn’t improve in the aforementioned ratio until his sixth year in the league. I guess the Manning’s see no uniforms, just football players early on in their career. That is until they finally come to the realization that it would behoove them not to do that. I guess we’ll see if Eli makes the leap in that department this year.

Buffalo Bills

Not only did then-rookie-QB Trent Edwards impress the Bills enough to get a firm grip on the franchise QB role, he also did so against a pretty difficult schedule. Four of his ten starts were against a top 10 passing defense and the remaining six weren’t what you could call a cakewalk either. Going into his second year and now well established in his offense, we could see Trent Edwards have a very successful year against what appears to be a glass-half-full type schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A strong case could be made for the Jaguars possession of the single toughest schedule last year passing wise. Nine of the team’s sixteen games were against top pass-stopping units and seven of those were started by breakout QB David Garrard. Unless last season was a complete mirage, Garrard’s impressive performance last year has solidified his role as the Jaguars new leader and an ultra-safe fantasy selection.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints didn’t get off to a very good start last year but eventually finished strong in vintage 2006 Saints fashion. With everyone all healed and the exciting, if a bit enigmatic Jeremy Shockey now at tight end, the Saints are primed to strike fear in the hearts of opposing defenses yet again this year. The glue that holds it all together could easily be stripped should the team be bit by the pesky injury bug yet again this season.

Denver Broncos

Not only did Jay Cutler progress leaps and bounds in 2007, he did so while being challenged by one of the ten toughest passing defense schedules of last year. While there are still some tough games on tap for the offense this year, Cutler has proven that he has the skills and intelligence to prepare and execute his offense despite facing such challenging opposition.

Detroit Lions

The Lions find themselves in a similar boat as they were in last year with the yearly schedule. With everyone and their plumber agreeing the Lions will drop-off in the wake of Mike Martz’s departure, the passing game remains largely the same. Although the offense thrived under Martz, Kitna surely believes he can keep it going. Hey at least the guy shoots for the moon. Fore if you miss then you shall end up in the stars, drifting through space with minimal oxygen.

Seattle Seahawks

The fact that they have a favorable passing schedule in 2008 is probably the only good thing to happen to the Seahawks all year long. Poor things. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, arguably the teams top two receivers are out for significant periods of time with injuries. Shaun Alexander is gone with his better days eclipsed by his sudden and unexpected falloff. Luckily for the Seahawks, they have a promising young group of wide receivers ready to step up and fill the Seahawks (and perhaps your fantasy teams?) needs.

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Tier 3 - Fairly easy

Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Whoever wins the Bears starting QB job (?), JaMarcus Russell, Javon Walker, Jason Campbell, Redskins coach Jim Zorn, Matt Leinart, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning


Chicago Bears

An easy schedule against passing defenses is far outweighed by the fact that the Bears don’t have anyone to cash in on it. Weird, that hasn’t happened before. Oh wait..

Oakland Raiders

With the biggest knock against the Raiders offense being JaMarcus Russell’s learning curve, the fact that the team has an easy schedule for him to learn to throw against is definitely a plus. If Javon Walker can bounce back and Justin Fargas was indeed the real deal, then this could be a half-way decent offense. Please note the term half-way decent and apply it to your fantasy team as you wish.

Washington Redskins

It’s common sense to say that an easy schedule is a good thing when a team is learning a new offense. It’s also a good thing when the QB that runs the offense is in a make or break year that will help determine whether or not the team will move in a different direction. Players have a tendency to play to the best of their ability when their career is on the line. Funny how that works..

Arizona Cardinals

While I wouldn’t recommend drafting him unless you were in a dynasty/keeper league or a sociopath risk-taker , Matt Leinart is in the best possible position to succeed. Never mind that his receivers are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin but the schedule is the best it may ever be for him. Also, Edgerrin James likely won’t be around and/or productive for much longer after this year.

Indianapolis Colts

With questions being posed of Marvin Harrison’s status everywhere but Indiana, the fact that the Colts have such a favorable schedule can only help what many are predicting will be Harrison’s imminent demise. If he can stay healthy there’s really no reason that he can’t play close to his former form. Don’t fall into the traps of all the doomsayers. For the obligatory Peyton Manning reference, Manning will have more time to kill with a softer schedule which will leave him with more free time. He can then use that to make the commercials we all know and love to curse aloud for. That’s my last Peyton/commercial joke for a while, I promise.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles will have a similar schedule to last year which was of course Brian Westbrook’s season for the ages. It also saw a healthy bounce back year from Donovan McNabb. All in all it’s good news for all involved as long as they can all fend off the injury bug.

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Tier 2 - Incredibly easy

Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Pennington, Marc Bulger’s ribs, Aaron Rodgers


Carolina Panthers

It always helps to have an easy schedule when your passing attack is going to be lead by a QB who just had off-season surgery on his elbow. With Delhomme getting up there in years and his elbow certain to play a major role in his ability to throw the ball, many have been iffy about him due to the health concerns. However with the easy schedule, the return of Muhsin Muhammed and the mere presence of Steve Smith, the Panthers are a successful Tommy-John surgery away from returning to 2004 status.

Minnesota Vikings

With Bernard Berrian giving the Vikings offense a threat to take a bit of attention off of Adrian Peterson, the team is perhaps a Tarvaris Jackson learning curve away from the Super Bowl. The schedule isn’t likely to hinder his progression and if he can improve upon his game like he’s shown he could then 2008 might be the year that the Vikings become a serious contender. Then again, the trendy off-season sleeper picks always seem to find a way to underachieve in spite of all the hype. So there’s that.

Miami Dolphins

Chad Pennington won’t be near the top of any QB ranking lists. That much is certain. But I can’t help but shake the feeling that the Brett Favre saga has severely overshadowed the fact that Chad Pennington is perfectly capable of being an effective QB when he’s healthy. Facing such an easy bunch of pass defense teams this year (especially when compared with what he faced last year), Pennington very well could go on and have a surprisingly good year. Never underestimate a man with something to prove.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams had a tremendously easy schedule last year but it didn’t really matter. Marc Bulger didn’t have his starting RB or a serviceable-at-best offensive line for nearly all of 2007. With nothing but his arm and quick judgment to rely on, Bulger could have been playing against the Little Giants and still probably had some trouble. With everyone now healthy and Stephen Jackson sure to return eventually (seriously, what is the Rams front office trying to accomplish exactly?), Bulger will be able to take advantage of the cupcake of a schedule the team has this year.

Green Bay Packers

With all of the hubbub of the Brett Favre soap opera and all of the parties involved, not a lot of people have noted that Aaron Rodgers finds himself with quite a first year schedule to play through. Even if it was brought up, it would likely be replaced with breaking news detailing what Favre had for lunch at Camp Mangini that day. Ew, Tuna fish?

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Tier 1 - Creampuff

New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players that may benefit the most from the schedule: Brett Favre, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Mike Martz’s offense, Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway


New York Jets

Is it a coincidence that the two teams Brett Favre was choosing between had the easiest and third easiest schedules against passing defenses in the NFL? Maybe I’m over thinking things here, but it’s worth throwing out there.

San Francisco 49ers

Mike Martz finds himself in charge of the NFL’s worst offense of last year. On the other side of things they have the easiest passing defense schedule, second only to our final team. It will be interesting to see which extreme will prevail over the other. Perhaps somewhere in the middle?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who cares if Jeff Garcia is 62 years old? With a creampuff schedule for the second year in a row, Garcia will have every opportunity to exhibit his fountain of youth yet again this coming year. Fantasy wise though, I’d say it’s maybe best to admire such an event from afar rather than banking on it for the sake of your team. Such a decision could result in several broken appliances.

Fantasy Extravaganza: Top 25 WR’s Not In The Overall Top 25

If you think about it, you could put a monkey in front of a computer, tell it to pick many people near the top of the screen all the time and that monkey would likely have some impressive players on it’s roster. It’s not very hard to draft the people your supposed to. But it’s after they’re all gone that drafts are won and the massive amount of time you spent researching players that were eventually cut at final cut-downs really pays off.

You can mix and match the top players all you want. If you take out the specific rankings, everyone’s Top 20’s will often have the same 20 players on it. Wouldn’t it behoove us to focus more on lists of players who aren’t on everyone’s lists? Who cares if we end up learning entirely too much about Hank Baskett to warrant utilizing during the season. Should he have a random breakout game during Week 7, you’ll know that it was just that and let some other lemming nearly break their leg trying to get the waiver claim in.

You will likely disagree with some of the rankings, but this list is the very definition of upside. My upside may be different from your upside. So there’s probably going to be some people on here that will make you tilt your head. But that’s okay, because what fun would it be to read a ‘bottom 25 WR’s’ list that didn’t offer some surprises and head-tilters? Correct! Not much fun at all.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my definition of upside in the replies.




25. Robert Meachem (NO)

Missing the entire 2008 season due to an injury and the team feeling he just wasn’t quite ready yet, Meachem had the opportunity to pick up all of the intricacies of the offense in his time on the sidelines last year. With the learning curve one of the big hurdles for rookie receivers, Meachem got that out of the way without ever stepping on the field. Still, he’ll need to get used to actual game speed but on a team that passes as much as the Saints do, Meachem has a huge opportunity to put up some decent numbers this season.

24. James Jones (GB)

Everyone upgraded the Jets receiving corps with Brett Favre’s arrival, will we wish we had done the same with the Packers unit if Aaron Rodgers stays afloat and ends up being a competent QB? Probably not as much. But James Jones would benefit greatly if Aaron Rodgers proves capable of getting the ball to his WR’s and doing it accurately.


23. Limas Sweed (PIT)

Limas Sweed was my favorite receiver coming out of a draft stocked with them. Come draft day, I eagerly awaited to see if he would go to Eagles or Buccaneers as I had predicted. He didn’t. In fact it wasn’t even close. In what felt like some weird Outer-Limits type scenario, no WR’s were taken in the first round. Not a one. So I was pretty amazed when Sweed fell all the way to round two, pick twenty-two before he was finally selected by the Steelers. Even though he’s a rookie, he should be a favorite end zone target of Ben Roethlisberger and that’s really all that needs to be said, I think.

22. Ben Obomanu (SEA)

With news that Bobby Engram would miss 6-8 weeks with an injury, Seattle’s WR situation just got a lot scarier. At least for fans of the team. If you just care about fantasy potential, it bumped up a bunch of possible sleepers that needed something just like this to happen. Ben Obomanu is young, talented and has the opportunity to become the slot receiver to start off the season. With Matt Hasselbeck always a sure bet to share his throws with his receivers, I’ll take it.


21. Ted Ginn Jr. (MIA)

Surrounded by lackluster wide receiving talent, Ted Ginn Jr. will be the Dolphins WR1 despite probably not making WR4 on most other teams. These are the Dolphins, after all. Although his rookie season wasn’t fantastic, it also wasn’t very bad either. The addition of Chad Pennington is a huge upgrade over who would have eventually been throwing to him and even though Pennington was kicked out of New York in favor of Brett Favre, he’s no wash-up. He can get his receivers the ball and with Ginn being the best receiver on the team, he’ll likely benefit the most.


20. Jabar Gaffney (NE)

After Chad Jackson’s failure of the first part of his entrance exam that would decide whether or not he was ready to be in the starting lineup, Jabar Gaffney appears primed to be New England’s WR3 (Or WR2 if you want to get technical since Welker is essentially the WR3 at the slot). Not many people believe he can put up quality fantasy numbers but if you were going to take a risk on someone you were drafting, wouldn’t you want Tom Brady throwing to him and Randy Moss and Wes Welker occupying most of the defenses attention? Uh, I would!


19. Antwaan Randle El (WAS)

Many people wrote off Antwaan Randle El when the Redskins drafted two rookie WR’s in the 2008 Draft. What they failed to take into account was that both rookies would get injured and Randle El may not take too kindly to reports that he’d be off the field soon. In a West Coast offense that will throw more, Randle El should be able to build upon his 728 yards and 1 TD from last season. Plus, there’s really no where to go for him but up in the TD department.


18. Vincent Jackson (SD)

Despite being the WR2 on a potent San Diego offense, Vincent Jackson isn’t getting much attention. This is probably due to the fact that Philip Rivers throws Antonio Gates the ball 75% of the time. Still, he’s gotten progressively better over the past two seasons and will only stand to benefit from having a full season with Chris Chambers starting opposite him. Having gained 623 yards receiving and 3 TD’s last season, he’s worth a gamble if you think he’s going to continue to progress.


17. Derrick Mason (BAL)

Despite getting up there in age, Derrick Mason put up his best year since 2004 last year. He ended up with 1,087 yards and 5 TD’s despite being thrown to by a rag-tag crew of perennial backup Kyle Boller, a past-his-prime Steve McNair and rookie 5th round pick Troy Smith. Not too bad when you put it in that perspective, I say. With just Boller and Smith likely to throw to him this year, and with both looking a lot better, Mason could very well put up similar numbers to last year yet again. Or dare I say it, improve upon them? He’s only 34 remember, which is precisely 27 years before Jerry Rice ended up retiring.


16. Justin Gage (TEN)

Ah, how we love to refuse to admit that someone who had played poorly in the past year may well end up doing the opposite the next. I for one think Vince Young is going to vastly improve upon last years performance. As the clear cut WR1 Justin Gage would benefit greatly if this proved to be the case. With 750 yards and 2 TD’s in the books for last year, Gage’s stats may grow even more as his rapport with his QB grows. Besides, since when has anyone won a fantasy league without taking some risks?


15. Donte Stallworth (CLE)

Just because he’s never topped 1,000 yards receiving doesn’t mean he never will. Donte Stallworth may also find his presence in Cleveland even more favorable then when he was in New England. In Foxboro Stallworth was essentially the teams third receiver, with Brady’s favorite targets being Randy Moss and Wes Welker. In Cleveland, he’s starting directly opposite Braylon Edwards and could turn out to be a favorite target of Derek Anderson. If Joe Jurevicius can rack up 614 yards and 3 TD’s in the Browns offense then is it out of the question to think Stallworth could have an 800 yard 6 TD season?


14. Bernard Berrian (MIN)

Some have been scared off by Berrian’s football’s being thrown to him by Tarvaris Jackson, but look where he was last year. Bernard Berrian had 951 yards and 5 TD’s last season in Chicago. In Chicago. A la, the team in Illinois who doesn’t seem to mind at all that the entire world thinks there QB’s suck every year. Even their own diehard fans. If Berrian can put up those numbers with Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton throwing to him, I say we have nothing to worry about his situation in Minnesota. Plus, Tarvaris Jackson could very well improve. We’ve only seen him start 16 total games.


13. Ronald Curry (OAK)

Ronald Curry may find himself on a poor offense, but he’s put up at least 700 yards and 1 TD in each of the last two seasons. It’s worth mentioning that those two seasons saw him on two offenses that were also poor. So poor that sometimes people would ask themselves if it was the worst offense they had ever seen (more so in 2006). With the offense with nowhere to go but up, Ronald Curry might just prove to be the best receiver on the Raiders come years end despite Javon Walker being the actual WR1. And although Walker is believed to have lost a step, his presence on the field can only help Curry.

12. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)

With Marvin Harrison’s 2008 a complete mystery to everyone, Anthony Gonzalez showed last year that he could try and fill the role with 576 receiving yards and 3 TD’s. Even if Harrison ends up being healthy and productive this year, Gonzalez has one NFL year under his belt and can begin to focus on taking advantage of the perks that come with being on the field with so many talented players. Also, Peyton Manning is his QB. Which means he‘s probably taught plays and kept in the loop of Peyton‘s acting career while in the showers.


11. Nate Burleson (SEA)

After a fantastic 2004 season that saw him amass 1006 yards and haul in 9 TD’s, Nate Burleson was just never the same. He took a step in the right direction last year with 694 yards and just as many TD’s (9). With the likelihood of Bobby Engram being absent for the first half of the year due to an injury, Burleson has seen his spot in the starting lineup officially set in stone. He’ll also be the only WR that has chemistry and rapport with Matt Hasselbeck. When all‘s said and done, it’s too crazy to imagine Burleson continuing his move back towards 2004 form.


10. Jerry Porter (JAX)

In Oakland last year, with a quality QB to throw to him nowhere in sight, Jerry Porter had 705 receiving yards and 6 TD’s. In fact, his most impressive year came in 2004 when he finished two yards shy of 1000 receiving yards and had 9 TD’s. His QB for much of that year was Kerry Collins. Yes, the very same Kerry Collins with a career 73.3 QB rating. Porter may very well find his time in Jacksonville his best yet, with a quality QB in David Garrard who is looking for a WR to mark his legacy with in return.


9. Joey Galloway (TB)

Joey Galloway has been consistently solid the past three years, putting up at least 1000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s in each. The only real downside is that he’ll be turning 37 during the season and no one likes to take chances on anyone in their late 30’s in fantasy football. Unless there’s a good reason of course and/or the first name is Brett. Even if Galloway regresses this year, it’s hard to imagine him doing it so suddenly and drastically. If he can stay healthy, Galloway could go ahead and put up his fourth solid year in a row. Hey, he’s a lot safer a pick then some other people taken in the 7th round.


8. Reggie Brown (PHI)

Even though Reggie Brown took a step back in 2007, it wasn’t so drastic and extreme to throw expectations of a turnaround out the window. He was playing on the same field as football machine Brian Westbrook after all. With the Eagles locked into Brian Westbrook for three more years, is it out of the question to think that they may not want to involve him in the offense 80 percent of the time anymore? Unless Westbrook puts up another career-year in 2008, the Eagles may very well focus a bit more on the passing game. Can you see where that was going?


7. Donald Driver (GB)

Even though Brett Favre’s departure has left many unsure about how Donald Driver will respond, he has been so consistent the past six years it’s hard to imagine him just becoming insignificant so suddenly. Barring an Aaron Rodgers busterpiece, Driver should be able to increase his TD total that dipped last year as well as come close to the 1000 yards he’s tallied minimum in each of his last 4 years.


6. Patrick Crayton (DAL)

Patrick Crayton improved in both yards and TD’s last year, finishing with 697 receiving yards and 7 TD’s. Call me crazy but with Tony Romo throwing to him and Terrell Owens starting on the other side of the field, I think he can fill Terry Glenn’s former role and put up at least 1000 this year with just as many TD’s as in 2007. His breakout year if you will. Write it down.


5. Laveranues Coles (NYJ)

Laveranues Coles was one of eleven players on the NYJ offense that benefited from Brett Favre choosing New York. Although Coles yardage numbers went down last year, his TD’s remained the same. With Brett Favre now throwing him the ball and running the offense, it wouldn’t be very surprising if both his receiving yards went back up as well as a couple more TD’s were tacked on. Jerricho Cotchery and Thomas Jones have been getting most of the hype with Favre’s arrival, but Coles could very well turn out to be the gunslingers favorite target on the team.


4. Hines Ward (PIT)

Playing a season injured would naturally cause a decline in your stats for the year and this is what we saw with Hines Ward in 2007. Still, in only thirteen games and with pain surely present many of them, Ward put up 732 receiving yards with 7 TD’s. With an off-season surgery in the books, Ward could very well bounce back healthy and return to sub-1000 receiving yards and 7 TD’s. Or he can fall by the wayside and get injured once again. I just can’t see Hines Ward falling by the wayside.


3. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)

Jerricho Cotchery’s value increase was second only to Thomas Jones due to number 4’s arrival. Cotchery broke 1000 yards receiving for the first time in his career despite seeing his TD total drop from 6 to 2 last year. It could even be argued that Cotchery should even be included in the actual top 25 rankings had the author not been skeptical of how well Brett Favre’s 2008 season would go. With the general consensus that Brett Favre > Chad Pennington, it’s safe to assume that Cotchery should put up close to the same numbers even if Favre does indeed have a bad year which would then effectively trigger the end of the world.


2. Santana Moss (WAS)

Santana Moss numbers have fluxuated up and down consistently since 2003 with his TD total finishing at an all-time low in 2007. Depending on how well Jason Campbell reacts to the West Coast offense, Moss could either be a huge beneficiary or a hopeless bystander. Even if it’s a bad year, Moss should still finish with at least 800 yards and an optimistic 5 TD’s. Best case scenario? Well, let’s just say it would be a lot more than that.



1. Roddy White (ATL)

Roddy White put his mark on the league last year, finishing with an impressive 1202 yards and 6 TD’s on what was otherwise an anemic offense. Heading into 2008 White’s QB concerns haven’t changed much, with either a rookie, under-achiever or head-scratcher set to throw him the football. White proved last year though that it didn’t really matter who was throwing to him, he could still put up the numbers. With what hopes to be the real deal in Michael Turner, White should benefit from having an actual threat on the field with him which is something he did not get to enjoy very much last year.

Shanahan Running Back Syndrome: An Explanation?

Presently, fantasy owners tend to stay away from Denver running backs as if they had Ebola. You know, the disease where you bleed from every orifice? Yeah, that one.

This is because in the past few years Mike Shanahan has decided that his team shall use a running back by committee, even when it does not make sense in the way it is being used. To be fair, Shanahan was the trend-setter in regards to the current committee running back situations we’re now faced with. Or shall I say, burdened with. Not that knowing the running back’s backup and backup’s backup is a bad thing. It’s just that if we didn’t need to, we could be spending that research time on other things like you know, our families.

Most of all that is common knowledge. What isn’t, is why it’s all happened in the first place. I’ve never heard an explanation, nor could I find one with specifically phrased searches through Google. So in the interests of fantasy owners who have been met their downfall thanks to a committee backfield in Denver, I embarked on a quest. I did not know where it would take me nor did I know what I would find. I just knew that it was a quest worth taking. I’m not promising an answer to the whole thing but as you’ll find at the end, a logical suggestion.





THE MILE HIGH RUNNING BACK FACTORY

In the wake of Terrell Davis’ retirement right before the 2002 season, the Denver Broncos became known as a running back factory. It seemed that no matter who the running back was, they would rack up at least 1200 yards and a half dozen TD’s. That stat mark, surprisingly was the minimum for that time and was set by Reuben Droughns in 2004. Yes, you read that correctly. Had you forgotten that Droughns was actually relevant once upon a time? It’s understandable.

Clinton Portis would alter Broncos fans‘ opinions that Davis could not be replaced rather quickly in 2002. At least the opinion that 1508 rushing yards 15 TD’s was a suitable replacement. Portis would follow his breakout rookie season with an even better one in 2003. He would rush for more yards (1591), but one less touchdown (14). Oh yeah, Portis also played in only 13 games in 2003 compared with all 16 the previous year. It puts the whole thing into better perspective, I think.

Following (what would soon come to be) an annual decimation of the team by the Indianapolis Colts 41-10 in the Wild Card round, Portis would be traded to the Washington Redskins straight-up for shut down corner Champ Bailey. The trade made sense because the passing game had needed help, but many wondered how the running game would fare now that Terrell Davis’ worthy successor had been traded away.

The answer to that question would lie in a Broncos fullback named Reuben Droughns. After rushing for 1240 yards and 6 TD’s, many declared Shanahan a genius in his scouting of running backs. Droughns would go onto Cleveland after just one year as a starter in Denver. There, he would put up another respectable season (1232 yards and 2 TD’s) in 2005 and then fall off the face of the earth. At least in terms of being a starting RB.

Once Droughns was shipped to Cleveland, that was it in terms of having just one starting RB. Over the next three years Shanahan’s approach to the running game would shift dramatically. He would use at least two but sometimes three different RB’s throughout the season.


A NEW PHILOSOPHY

While it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where Shanahan shifted towards this new mentality, my best guess is Week 1 in 2005 at Dolphins Stadium. Anderson had gotten the start and was likely primed to be the starter for the rest of the year except that he got roughed up, bruised his ribs and effectively changed the landscape of fantasy football for the remainder of time. Way to go, Mike.

Into the game stepped Tatum Bell a rookie out of Oklahoma State. Although the team was shellacked 34-10 by the Dolphins and Bell only rushed for 47 yards on 13 carries with no TD’s, the teams backfield was never quite the same. Bell had to have done something.

Opinions here can vary. Either you can think Shanahan was going to use both Anderson and Bell from the get go or you can think Anderson’s injury and something about Bell’s performance in that game changed his perception somehow. One would make sense while the other would not. At least not as much.

Take into account the rest of what happened. In 2006, with Anderson gone and Bell poised to be the starter, Shanahan would give more than half of Tatum’s carries to an un-drafted rookie free agent named Mike Bell. The fact they both had the last name Bell only proved to further frustrate fantasy owners who had banked on Tatum, but not on this un-drafted Mike character. It was here that the legend of Mike Shanahan not being a big a fan of fantasy football would begin. It would only multiply exponentially in 2007.

With Tatum Bell gone, Mike Shanahan decided not to give his only remaining Bell any shot at the starting job at all. This is because the team had signed free agent Travis Henry and two more un-drafted rookie FA’s Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Hey, I never said this whole thing was going to make sense.

Although Henry and Young would split the majority of the carries, Shanahan designated Hall worthy of his own 44 carries. The ordeal was so traumatizing for some fantasy owners that many swore off Denver Broncos RB’s for the rest of their lives. Many have stayed true to that claim to this very day.


WHERE WE STAND CURRENTLY

With both Selvin Young and Andre Hall still on the team, Shanahan went ahead and gave the go-ahead to draft another rookie RB in the fifth round of the draft. He was out of Arizona State and his name is Ryan Torain.

Unfortunately for Ryan, he dislocated his elbow, did some ligament damage to it and will likely miss three months minimum. While I would not even think about suggesting that this injury was incurred due to the mass amount of karma directed at the Broncos RB situation from fantasy football owners who had put stake in them, I could go ahead and say that it may have opened up an opportunity for Shanahan to go back to a one-back system.

Or if you’ve already solved the mystery, will realize that 2008 will just become another chapter in the wondrous story that is Mike Shanahan’s running back depth chart management. Here’s a Scooby Snack for you.


THE THEORY THAT EXPLAINS IT ALL

When you read the history of the whole ordeal as I have so succinctly put it and then sit back and think about it, it will likely just dawn on you. It’s really the only thing that would make sense next to Mike Shanahan actually trying and enjoying his toying with the game of fantasy football. Since that reason has never really sat right with me, the new one I’ve come up with makes a lot more sense.

Think about it. What other possibility could there be for someone to go all-in on not one, but TWO un-drafted rookie RB’s? And then have it work for them? And THEN proceed to draft another rookie in the fifth round of the very next draft? Why on earth would someone do that? I don’t care how much he dislikes fantasy football, I don’t think he’s going to involve a whole draft selection in order to mess give in to his hatred.

We’ve all come to the conclusion that Mike Shanahan is a supreme evaluator of RB talent. That much is certain. But why would he just not use one back? Why use multiple ones year after year, especially after having had so many successful years with just one starting RB? The answer?

The can of Coke is always hall-full for Mike Shanahan.

He’s an optimist.

An optimist with a Hall of Fame eye for RB talent, but an optimist none-the-less.

Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings: Opposing Run Defense

So there I was yesterday morning, thinking about strength of schedule in regards to fantasy football while enjoying my breakfast (a bologna sandwich) at work. Sure, it’s worth taking into account. But strength of schedule is too broad and doesn’t really give you anything to cue in on that’s too specific. Take the Kansas City Chiefs last year for instance. Although it’s hard to imagine them being good at anything, they actually had the fifth best pass defense in the league. They also had the fifth worst rushing defense. Don’t ask me how that happened, but it did.

It was after these breakfast ponderings that I had an idea. Completely oblivious to the fact that I already should have begun to take calls for the day, I sketched out a brief synopsis of my plan. Now I’m absolutely positive this has been done to some extent before, so I’m not saying this is some revolutionary idea or anything. I did however create my own calculation and ranking system. For better or worse.

Getting to the point, since most of you are probably wishing I would just hurry up and get on with it, I have dubbed these calculations “Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings”. It allows you to assign a filtered, position-specific value to a team and thus it’s players based on the defenses they will be playing that year. Get it? Got it? I hope so, because we’re moving on.

Naturally, rushing defense will be featured first since the running back is the Godfather of all fantasy football positions. Even if we are becoming more immune to that fact thanks to the new RB-by-committee trend and an unbiased look at the other positions.

When ranking the rushing defenses, I took last year’s results into account but also, obviously, factored free agent acquisitions, departures, rookies -- pretty much all off-season activity. Then having ranked them from best to sickeningly worst, I busted out my old friend the tier system. I grouped the rushing defenses into these tiers and then assigned a point value to all teams in each given tier. The goal was to take a team, go through the schedule and end up with the team’s overall point value for the difficulty of rushing defenses faced. You could then apply that to every running back on the team.

It’s not perfect and likely needs tweaking, but I think it’s a good start. But first things first. Cue the tier rankings!

Tier 8 (0 points) - The better off just not even playing a defense at all tier.

Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins

Tier 7 (1 point) - The not a good role model for other rushing defenses tier.

Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions

Tier 6 (2 points) - The glass is half empty tier.

Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs

Tier 5 (3 points) - The headed in the right direction at least tier.

Houston Texans, St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets

Tier 4 (4 points) - The orange starburst middle of the pack tier.

Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tier 3 (6 points) - The better than your average D, eh ah Boo-Boo tier.

Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots

Tier 2 (8 points) - The not on any running backs favorite list of defenses to play tier.

Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tier 1 (10 points) - The better have a good quarterback tier.

Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens


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Now we just need to apply these points to each teams schedule. What’s that? You don’t like math you say? Well, luckily for you my four month old daughter’s nap lasted just long enough for me to pound out all the calculations with the help of the wondrous calculator. Sorry Ms. Shea, I’m aware I could have done it out longhand but I’m also no longer in second grade. I also included some information on who the ranking will benefit/decrement. It’s incredibly long but I couldn’t go anywhere today anyway so I figured why not? As always enjoy and feel free to question my vehemently disagree in the replies!


Note: Teams are ranked from difficult to easy.


32. Cincinnati Bengals

While I admit it’s not worth crossing players off of your draft board because of this type of info, it is worth taking it into account in the big scheme of things. Coming off of an injury-riddled, largely unimpressive 2007 campaign, Rudi Johnson is high on a lot of people’s draft boards. He’s only 28 after all and has had only one “bad” season. But the risk is there with his hamstring problems and it’s up to you on how you think having such a tough schedule will impact him.

31. Cleveland Browns

Jamal Lewis is a workhorse back and workhorse backs tend to fare a tad better against good rushing defenses. This is because they’ll keep getting carries, not get banged up and keep coming like a freight train despite not being able to feel many parts of their body. Lewis would make a good citation if there is ever a definition of the term workhorse back in the dictionary. Which there’ll never be but we can hope.

30. New York Giants

It always helps to have a variety of players to substitute when going against any strong defensive unit. Luckily for the Giants, they have Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward to mix it up with and interchange to keep the others fresh. Bad news for you, your not going to have all three of them on your team unless you’re an unabashed Giants homer. Or a questionable drafter.

29. Indianapolis Colts

Ah, the first team with an upper-echelon fantasy RB. The Colts play a lot of tough rushing defenses in 2008. Besides playing both the Titans and Jaguars twice, they will also have to face the Vikings, Ravens and Steelers. Does that mean you should let him slide into the third round on your draft projection sheet? No, you dumb ass. But it may behoove you to slide him behind other comparable RB’s with easier schedules. Just saying.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers brought Rashard Mendenhall in to help out the team in the wake of Willie Parkers fall-out with the end zone. Although Parker may have fallen in rank too much due to his injury last year and low TD total, his 2008 schedule is definitely a cause for concern. The Steelers only played against 4 respectable rushing defenses last year so it will be interesting to see if Parker can put up anything remotely close to 1,300 yards. Especially considering the Steelers have 8 tough rushing defenses on tap for them this year. I’m gonna go ahead and predict against that and for the record.

27. Dallas Cowboys

Marion Barber proved last year that he doesn’t discriminate against a good rushing offense and a bad one. He just goes to town regardless. Playing half of his games last year against stout rushing defenses, Barber III racked up 975 yards and 10 TD’s on 204 attempts (4.8 yards per carry). So it appears another difficult season running against talented defenses will not hinder Barber’s production. I mean, would you expect anything less from someone who’s nicknamed “The Barbarian”?

26. Houston Texans

The only thing perhaps more horrifying than the Texans backfields fantasy potential is the fact that the team plays 7 total games against some of the top run stoppers in the game. If you add the two together than you’ll likely have all the information you need.

25. Washington Redskins

Opinions on Clinton Portis’ 2008 season vary. Some think he’s going to have another season similar to his impressive 2007 while the other side thinks he’s going to regress from last year due in large part to the West Coast offense. With half of his games in 2007 being against top rushing defenses, the only other reason you think he’ll decline is if you subscribe to the West Coast theory. If not, well then there’s really no reason to expect anything different from what he did last year.

24. Detroit Lions

With Mike Martz’s departure, the Lions are said to have finally remembered that the running game is a part of the game in addition to passing. With no logical resume to reference Kevin Smith’s success against top running defenses with, this one is up in the air. If your comfortable with taking a rookie running back solely on upside and the fact the team is going to be using a zone-blocking scheme, than go for it. It’s pretty risky, though.

23. Philadelphia Eagles

Yet another top RB prospect. Here’s where this all gets interesting. Despite the Eagles having a tough 2008 rushing defense schedule, the one that they had last year was actually tougher with Westbrook going against 8 tough units last year as opposed to just 5 this year. What does that mean exactly? Well, while it’s unlikely Westbrook will eclipse the mark he set last year and enter 2,500 total yards territory, it is safe to say that it will be a lot easier for him to put up similar stats again this year.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars

The farther we get away from the top ten teams with the toughest rushing defense schedules, the more forgiving the schedule becomes. Despite playing five total teams with vaunted rushing defenses, the Jaguars get a break in between them with some easier units. With the gap between Maurice Jones Drew and Fred Taylor likely to close fast, MJD likely benefits overall while Taylor may not. The more beatings Taylor takes the more he’s going to feel it. He may be in excellent physical shape but 32 years old is 32 years old no matter how you try and sell it.

21. Tennessee Titans

Although LenDale White facing only 4 rough and tumble defenses last year would be a cause for concern if that number were increasing dramatically this year, it’s not since he’s only facing 5 this year. Rookie Chris Johnson is a risk if only because he’s a rookie but reports are that he’s progressing well and should see a fair amount of reps this season. With White being an injury risk and Johnson being inexperienced, all you’ll need to do to sleep well at night is handcuff the two of them and you’ll be fine. The schedule isn’t too big of a concern.

20. Chicago Bears

Due to the Bears QB situation, this rushing defense S.O.S. projection should be all you need to know about the Bears offense. However the Bears organization seems content with two under-achievers battling it out to lead the team. And they plan on throwing with whoever wins! So let’s stop trying to make sense of it and just change the subject. Rookie Matt Forte is said to be the real deal but his path through the 2008 season is marginally difficult. He’s been named the starter since before the pre-season even started, which was actually pretty weird. All in all, it’s buyer beware.

19. Green Bay Packers

Having been given what he felt his 10 game 2008 season was worth monetarily, Ryan Grant is ready to pick up where things left off last season. Unfortunately for him, he only played against 2 top rushing defenses last year. He’ll face 6 this year. Shouldn’t there be rules in place in regards to how long you have to play before you can demand money based on your skill? If Grant busts this year, expect the Packers to assure it will be turned into one. As for you, just snag the rookie Brandon Jackson as a handcuff. He’s been impressive.

18. San Francisco 49ers

Even though Frank Gore’s rushes should decline with Mike Martz’s arrival, he’s still going to get the ball. At least let’s hope so. Never say never with Mike Martz. When he does run, Gore will only face 1 elite rushing defense the whole year. While the rest of the schedule is consistently littered with solid units, Gore has already proved he can run no matter who he’s doing it against.

17. Seattle Seahawks

With some question marks hovering over much of the Seattle running game, the fact that the team essentially has an average run defense S.O.S. only further frustrates matters. Either you think Julius Jones will thrive and improve in Seattle or you don’t. Try just putting it that way.

16. Baltimore Ravens

Now that we’re about halfway through the list, let’s focus on the positives, shall we? First off, the Ravens run defense S.O.S. isn’t too tough. They’ll have their fair share of tough games ahead of them, but nothing Willis McGahee can’t run through. The most important thing to take into account is Cam Cameron is now running the offensive show. As LaDainian Tomlinson and the first 7 games of Ronnie Brown’s 2007 have shown, the man knows a thing or two about how to run the ball.

15. Arizona Cardinals

If you’ve been attempting to talk-up Edgerrin James to everyone, you’ve likely been told to stop kidding yourself. Or to stop talking to them because they don’t know you. What these people fail to realize, besides that your not a convicted felon, is that Edge has a favorable road ahead of him in 2008. With the still inexperienced, wee-hour loving Matt Leinart at QB, Edge may see even more carries then he did last year. He’s been there, he’s done that. He just might not do it all as well as he once did anymore.

14. St. Louis Rams

Speaking of holdouts, the Rams currently find themselves in one with Stephen Jackson. Unlike Ryan Grant however, Jackson actually deserves what he’s holding out for. Once the Rams eventually come to their senses and realize they are dealing with one of the best running backs in the franchises history, Jackson will find himself with a favorable 2008 schedule. Everything will turn out fine, it always does. That makes 3 top RB’s down, 2 to go (in case you weren’t counting).

13. Miami Dolphins

Three of Ronnie Brown’s impressive seven game 2007 campaign were against quality rushing defenses. Normally, an ACL tear would be a major concern heading into the next season. But with nearly a year to rehabilitate it, Brown should have no problem running at through and around his 2008 opponents. Especially with an easier overall schedule and another RB to help carry a bit of the load which is something that he hasn’t had in previous seasons.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Despite running his way to one of the best rookie rushing seasons in the history of the game, Adrian Peterson’s rookie season has it’s downside. Unfortunately it will ensure that at least one rookie per draft will be projected as a future Hall of Famer. And as the next ‘Adrian Peterson’. Not that it wasn’t happening before last year, but it’s going to get even worse now. Peterson enters his second season with the hopes and dreams of a bandwagon so packed, they’ve named it a double-decker bandbus. What, not funny? Peterson projects to surpass LaDainian Tomlinson as the overall #1 RB of fantasy addicts everywhere this year and he has a schedule that may help him do so. I wonder where Tomlinson will end up ranking..

11. Atlanta Falcons

L.T. backup and garbage time Hall of Famer Michael Turner has finally got his shot at a starting gig. It’s probably not the ideal situation that he envisioned but he’s still the starter none-the-less. The Falcons are in a rebuilding year this year, which is a polite way of saying that all three aspects of their team suck and need to be done over. Luckily for Turner, the Falcons are going to be playing a lot of questionable run defenses throughout the year. So even though they’ll likely finish 5-11, Turner will have a shot at 1200 or so yards. He’s a gamble, though. Don’t bank on him being one of your prominent starters unless you’re a glutton for punishment.

10. Carolina Panthers

With the Williams/Stewart 2008 debate still going in full force, I haven’t heard anyone mention that the Panthers have a very nice schedule in terms of running the ball this year. No matter who wins the starting job, he and the backup will likely both be productive. Stewart has the clear edge, but reports have been trickling out of Carolina that rejuvenate the Williams backers (myself included) all over again. So we’ll likely have to wait and see whether there will be one starter who gets 80% of the snaps or if the Panthers will take more of a 60/40 approach in favor of the starter. Probably the latter.

9. Oakland Raiders

With Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden likely to split carries until someone pulls away with the starting job, both should excel since many of the Raiders games will be against creampuff run defenses. In fact, they don’t face a respectable unit until Week 6. Even though many believe Darren McFadden will have a similar if not better season than Adrian Peterson’s rookie year, these people probably couldn’t tell you what college he went to and/or who his backup was. As I’m sure you know, both of those questions are very easy so just ignore those people since there the types of people who say things just to say they said them even when they know they’re blatantly and ridiculously wrong. Could McFadden have a great season? Yes. Will it surpass Adrian Petersons rookie year? Absolutely not. Do I like to ask myself questions? You bet!

8. Buffalo Bills

Marshawn Lynch emerged last year as a legit fantasy RB. As well as just a great RB for the select few who still don’t play fantasy football. He did this all while facing 9 very talented rushing defenses throughout the year. Not bad, especially considering he was playing on a Bills offense that wasn’t much of a threat to beat you with the passing game. Heading into 2008, Lynch finds himself with nearly opposite the schedule from last year. With many reports stating he’ll be even more involved in the passing game, I don’t think I need to tell you that these are all very good things. Especially if you have Lynch on your team. Cha-ching!

7. New York Jets

It is highly likely that Thomas Jones now believes in karma. After a 2007 season that saw him scoring only 1 rushing TD and running behind one of the worst offensive lines the Jets have ever seen, Jones must have been downtrodden. Fast forward seven months to the present and now look at the position he’s in. He has Alan Faneca and Damien Woody blocking for him, tons of people finally decided he was a legit RB due to the stats he put up in such a horrid situation and he has Brett Favre running his offense. Complete 180 turn around, right there. Plus, karma decided to throw in one of the easiest run defense S.O.S. in the league as an extra treat. It would behoove you to try and get Jones on your team especially if you had him last year.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Cadillac Williams broken down and Warrick Dunn not getting any younger, Earnest Graham is poised to be the starter in Tampa. Although the teams he faced in his breakout party last year weren’t too tough as a whole, who are we to judge? He finds himself with another great schedule for running so expect him to do so and for the Buccaneers to keep telling him to.

5. New England Patriots

It’s common knowledge that the Patriots had the easiest overall schedule in the NFL this year, so I was interested to see just how cupcake the rushing side would be. As you can see, pretty cupcake. Lawrence Maroney is poised to have a breakout year, being healthy and participating in all of training camp and pre-season and all. Although I don’t see why the Patriots will stop throwing so much until they have to, a lot of people are saying the Patriots will run a bit more this year. Who knows, since you can never accurately predict anything Bill Belichick does, but everything is in place for Maroney to finally be the running back the Patriots wanted him to be.

4. Denver Broncos

Normally one would roll their eyes at this ranking since the way Mike Shanahan uses his RB’s makes about as much sense as a eating a brownie with cranberry juice. However Ryan Torain has dislocated his elbow and damaged some ligaments. Recovery time is expected to take about three months and by then he likely won’t be able to contribute very much. That leaves the Broncos backfield with Selvin Young, Michael Pittman and Cecil Sapp. If there was ever, ever a year to take a Denver RB than this is the year. Young showed last year he’s a talented runner who can break one at anytime. Unless Mike Shanahan really likes to mess with fantasy football than Young should be the main RB this year. Never say never, though.

3. New Orleans Saints

With Deuce McAllister’s health in question and Reggie Bush’s ability to be a feature RB himself in doubt, the Saints at least find themselves with the third easiest schedule in terms of running against their opponent. If McAllister can stay healthy than Bush may have the season everyone expected of him his rookie year. If he can’t then Bush will have to split and prove he’s better than Pierre Thomas. No matter what happens, there’s a very good chance they’ll have a lot of success running the ball this year.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Too bad there’s major concern surrounding the Chiefs offensive line this year. Larry Johnson could have probably had a pre-2007 type year. With QB Brodie Croyle not fooling anyone into defending against the pass, Johnson will have to overcome poor blocking and the opposing defenses full attention in order to run successfully. He’s going to get a lot of carries and may get his fair share of yardage, but nothing like what he once was. Too bad, because they have the second easiest run defense schedule in the NFL. And that leaves..

1. San Diego Chargers

Yes, seriously.

Fantasy Extravaganza: The Top 20 QB's

I was going to make this a top 30 like the running back edition but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s QB’s in order to rank the late twenties. Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!


20. Matt Leinart (ARI)

Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at QB, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed. All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest profile bust of the 2006 draft.

19. Vince Young (TEN)

Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore. With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone and his rapport with his promising WR duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.

18. Jason Campbell (WAS)

Apparently realizing their WR corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins organization attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected 2 WR’s and 1 TE in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal. If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.

17. Jon Kitna (DET)

With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supports have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get less attempts than last year, but not dramatically so due to the mix of inexperience and under-achievement that makes up the backfield. If the offensive line can manage not to give up the league lead in sacks again, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust easier than you may think. Let’s hope he shoots for fourteen wins this year.

16. Philip Rivers (SD)

Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30% of Philip Rivers career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him. Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off of off-season ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in take in fantasy football, friend.

15. Eli Manning (NYG)

Unless your in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that despite being a Super Bowl champion QB, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season. A Super Bowl win very well could have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the post-season. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as TD’s and appear perfectly okay that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes even though he was the one who fudged the route. Only time will tell but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!

14. Matt Schaub (HOU)

The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the ass when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had actually shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing! Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are “when” and “healthy”. If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.

13. Marc Bulger (STL)

To the poorly-rounded fan, Marc Bulger’s 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TD’s, 15 INT’s). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket those stats are actually quite impressive. Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact that the Rams offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit. You see, for those of us who watched most of his games -- the fact that he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completely passed instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.

12. Jay Cutler (DEN)

Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine -- causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense. Cutler has proven after last years performance that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 QB draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket! With potential question marks at receiver besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up and coming TE Tony Scheffler (and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and he has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.

11. Derek Anderson (CLE)

Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007 and if you claim otherwise, than you sir are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation. Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.

10. David Garrard (JAC)

Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move, telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich eventually imploded in Atlanta. Although many people describe a conservative QB like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.

9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)

Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proved to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proved to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with throwing once again to a question group of WR. At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many RB’s are a part of it. If it were a lesser QB, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few QB’s who no one really doubts despite not having a clear number 1 option.

8. Brett Favre (NYJ)

Although we’d like to believe otherwise now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show -- and people are taking the over! Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regards to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I for one say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.

7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)

All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis. The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of a idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games -- with anything more just being extra. Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game -- especially one coming off of a 2,000+ yards from scrimmage season. It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting QB injury risk this year -- however it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP type numbers. Ah -- decisions, decisions.

6. Carson Palmer (CIN)

Despite being on the team who’s nickname is often associated with being arrested and going to jail, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 TD’s. Yes, he had 20 INT’s which obviously isn’t good but the guy is only human. Now with Ben Utecht as the starting TE, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball! While all signs point towards another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson realized he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho Cinco fashion (1400 yards, 8 TD’s). On the other hand, you would have The Terrell Owens Saga 2: Now Featuring Chad Johnson occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Although he threw for less yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger improved upon his TD total tenfold (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps help increase Ben’s touchdown total. Of course, that would mean he would have to stay on par with his performance from last year and since his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006 and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.

4. Drew Brees (NO)

After a horrendous start to the year in which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006 -- albeit with seven more interceptions. It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy and Devery Henderson can step it up then we may again see the offensive firepower that the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl. And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.

3. Peyton Manning (IND)

It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying that there’s a chance that the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime. Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think that the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning as well? Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Marvin should he continue to have a decreased role -- but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo. While Anthony Gonzalez shows some promise, he’s no Reggie Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game which would mean a decreased role for Manning and thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.

2. Tony Romo (DAL)

Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when your out somewhere and you can nudge whoever your with and say, “Hey, he’s on my fantasy team.” Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don’t really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy. Back on topic, Romo has got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some. T.O. is getting up there in age but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or another the past few years. Although he is approaching 35 years old, in Terrell Owens fitness years that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet. It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.



1. Tom Brady (NE)

I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s number one, well then -- just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything period.