SportsCrack

Shanahan Running Back Syndrome: An Explanation?

Presently, fantasy owners tend to stay away from Denver running backs as if they had Ebola. You know, the disease where you bleed from every orifice? Yeah, that one.

This is because in the past few years Mike Shanahan has decided that his team shall use a running back by committee, even when it does not make sense in the way it is being used. To be fair, Shanahan was the trend-setter in regards to the current committee running back situations we’re now faced with. Or shall I say, burdened with. Not that knowing the running back’s backup and backup’s backup is a bad thing. It’s just that if we didn’t need to, we could be spending that research time on other things like you know, our families.

Most of all that is common knowledge. What isn’t, is why it’s all happened in the first place. I’ve never heard an explanation, nor could I find one with specifically phrased searches through Google. So in the interests of fantasy owners who have been met their downfall thanks to a committee backfield in Denver, I embarked on a quest. I did not know where it would take me nor did I know what I would find. I just knew that it was a quest worth taking. I’m not promising an answer to the whole thing but as you’ll find at the end, a logical suggestion.





THE MILE HIGH RUNNING BACK FACTORY

In the wake of Terrell Davis’ retirement right before the 2002 season, the Denver Broncos became known as a running back factory. It seemed that no matter who the running back was, they would rack up at least 1200 yards and a half dozen TD’s. That stat mark, surprisingly was the minimum for that time and was set by Reuben Droughns in 2004. Yes, you read that correctly. Had you forgotten that Droughns was actually relevant once upon a time? It’s understandable.

Clinton Portis would alter Broncos fans‘ opinions that Davis could not be replaced rather quickly in 2002. At least the opinion that 1508 rushing yards 15 TD’s was a suitable replacement. Portis would follow his breakout rookie season with an even better one in 2003. He would rush for more yards (1591), but one less touchdown (14). Oh yeah, Portis also played in only 13 games in 2003 compared with all 16 the previous year. It puts the whole thing into better perspective, I think.

Following (what would soon come to be) an annual decimation of the team by the Indianapolis Colts 41-10 in the Wild Card round, Portis would be traded to the Washington Redskins straight-up for shut down corner Champ Bailey. The trade made sense because the passing game had needed help, but many wondered how the running game would fare now that Terrell Davis’ worthy successor had been traded away.

The answer to that question would lie in a Broncos fullback named Reuben Droughns. After rushing for 1240 yards and 6 TD’s, many declared Shanahan a genius in his scouting of running backs. Droughns would go onto Cleveland after just one year as a starter in Denver. There, he would put up another respectable season (1232 yards and 2 TD’s) in 2005 and then fall off the face of the earth. At least in terms of being a starting RB.

Once Droughns was shipped to Cleveland, that was it in terms of having just one starting RB. Over the next three years Shanahan’s approach to the running game would shift dramatically. He would use at least two but sometimes three different RB’s throughout the season.


A NEW PHILOSOPHY

While it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where Shanahan shifted towards this new mentality, my best guess is Week 1 in 2005 at Dolphins Stadium. Anderson had gotten the start and was likely primed to be the starter for the rest of the year except that he got roughed up, bruised his ribs and effectively changed the landscape of fantasy football for the remainder of time. Way to go, Mike.

Into the game stepped Tatum Bell a rookie out of Oklahoma State. Although the team was shellacked 34-10 by the Dolphins and Bell only rushed for 47 yards on 13 carries with no TD’s, the teams backfield was never quite the same. Bell had to have done something.

Opinions here can vary. Either you can think Shanahan was going to use both Anderson and Bell from the get go or you can think Anderson’s injury and something about Bell’s performance in that game changed his perception somehow. One would make sense while the other would not. At least not as much.

Take into account the rest of what happened. In 2006, with Anderson gone and Bell poised to be the starter, Shanahan would give more than half of Tatum’s carries to an un-drafted rookie free agent named Mike Bell. The fact they both had the last name Bell only proved to further frustrate fantasy owners who had banked on Tatum, but not on this un-drafted Mike character. It was here that the legend of Mike Shanahan not being a big a fan of fantasy football would begin. It would only multiply exponentially in 2007.

With Tatum Bell gone, Mike Shanahan decided not to give his only remaining Bell any shot at the starting job at all. This is because the team had signed free agent Travis Henry and two more un-drafted rookie FA’s Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Hey, I never said this whole thing was going to make sense.

Although Henry and Young would split the majority of the carries, Shanahan designated Hall worthy of his own 44 carries. The ordeal was so traumatizing for some fantasy owners that many swore off Denver Broncos RB’s for the rest of their lives. Many have stayed true to that claim to this very day.


WHERE WE STAND CURRENTLY

With both Selvin Young and Andre Hall still on the team, Shanahan went ahead and gave the go-ahead to draft another rookie RB in the fifth round of the draft. He was out of Arizona State and his name is Ryan Torain.

Unfortunately for Ryan, he dislocated his elbow, did some ligament damage to it and will likely miss three months minimum. While I would not even think about suggesting that this injury was incurred due to the mass amount of karma directed at the Broncos RB situation from fantasy football owners who had put stake in them, I could go ahead and say that it may have opened up an opportunity for Shanahan to go back to a one-back system.

Or if you’ve already solved the mystery, will realize that 2008 will just become another chapter in the wondrous story that is Mike Shanahan’s running back depth chart management. Here’s a Scooby Snack for you.


THE THEORY THAT EXPLAINS IT ALL

When you read the history of the whole ordeal as I have so succinctly put it and then sit back and think about it, it will likely just dawn on you. It’s really the only thing that would make sense next to Mike Shanahan actually trying and enjoying his toying with the game of fantasy football. Since that reason has never really sat right with me, the new one I’ve come up with makes a lot more sense.

Think about it. What other possibility could there be for someone to go all-in on not one, but TWO un-drafted rookie RB’s? And then have it work for them? And THEN proceed to draft another rookie in the fifth round of the very next draft? Why on earth would someone do that? I don’t care how much he dislikes fantasy football, I don’t think he’s going to involve a whole draft selection in order to mess give in to his hatred.

We’ve all come to the conclusion that Mike Shanahan is a supreme evaluator of RB talent. That much is certain. But why would he just not use one back? Why use multiple ones year after year, especially after having had so many successful years with just one starting RB? The answer?

The can of Coke is always hall-full for Mike Shanahan.

He’s an optimist.

An optimist with a Hall of Fame eye for RB talent, but an optimist none-the-less.

Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings: Opposing Run Defense

So there I was yesterday morning, thinking about strength of schedule in regards to fantasy football while enjoying my breakfast (a bologna sandwich) at work. Sure, it’s worth taking into account. But strength of schedule is too broad and doesn’t really give you anything to cue in on that’s too specific. Take the Kansas City Chiefs last year for instance. Although it’s hard to imagine them being good at anything, they actually had the fifth best pass defense in the league. They also had the fifth worst rushing defense. Don’t ask me how that happened, but it did.

It was after these breakfast ponderings that I had an idea. Completely oblivious to the fact that I already should have begun to take calls for the day, I sketched out a brief synopsis of my plan. Now I’m absolutely positive this has been done to some extent before, so I’m not saying this is some revolutionary idea or anything. I did however create my own calculation and ranking system. For better or worse.

Getting to the point, since most of you are probably wishing I would just hurry up and get on with it, I have dubbed these calculations “Filtered Strength of Schedule Rankings”. It allows you to assign a filtered, position-specific value to a team and thus it’s players based on the defenses they will be playing that year. Get it? Got it? I hope so, because we’re moving on.

Naturally, rushing defense will be featured first since the running back is the Godfather of all fantasy football positions. Even if we are becoming more immune to that fact thanks to the new RB-by-committee trend and an unbiased look at the other positions.

When ranking the rushing defenses, I took last year’s results into account but also, obviously, factored free agent acquisitions, departures, rookies -- pretty much all off-season activity. Then having ranked them from best to sickeningly worst, I busted out my old friend the tier system. I grouped the rushing defenses into these tiers and then assigned a point value to all teams in each given tier. The goal was to take a team, go through the schedule and end up with the team’s overall point value for the difficulty of rushing defenses faced. You could then apply that to every running back on the team.

It’s not perfect and likely needs tweaking, but I think it’s a good start. But first things first. Cue the tier rankings!

Tier 8 (0 points) - The better off just not even playing a defense at all tier.

Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins

Tier 7 (1 point) - The not a good role model for other rushing defenses tier.

Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions

Tier 6 (2 points) - The glass is half empty tier.

Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs

Tier 5 (3 points) - The headed in the right direction at least tier.

Houston Texans, St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets

Tier 4 (4 points) - The orange starburst middle of the pack tier.

Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tier 3 (6 points) - The better than your average D, eh ah Boo-Boo tier.

Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots

Tier 2 (8 points) - The not on any running backs favorite list of defenses to play tier.

Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tier 1 (10 points) - The better have a good quarterback tier.

Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens


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Now we just need to apply these points to each teams schedule. What’s that? You don’t like math you say? Well, luckily for you my four month old daughter’s nap lasted just long enough for me to pound out all the calculations with the help of the wondrous calculator. Sorry Ms. Shea, I’m aware I could have done it out longhand but I’m also no longer in second grade. I also included some information on who the ranking will benefit/decrement. It’s incredibly long but I couldn’t go anywhere today anyway so I figured why not? As always enjoy and feel free to question my vehemently disagree in the replies!


Note: Teams are ranked from difficult to easy.


32. Cincinnati Bengals

While I admit it’s not worth crossing players off of your draft board because of this type of info, it is worth taking it into account in the big scheme of things. Coming off of an injury-riddled, largely unimpressive 2007 campaign, Rudi Johnson is high on a lot of people’s draft boards. He’s only 28 after all and has had only one “bad” season. But the risk is there with his hamstring problems and it’s up to you on how you think having such a tough schedule will impact him.

31. Cleveland Browns

Jamal Lewis is a workhorse back and workhorse backs tend to fare a tad better against good rushing defenses. This is because they’ll keep getting carries, not get banged up and keep coming like a freight train despite not being able to feel many parts of their body. Lewis would make a good citation if there is ever a definition of the term workhorse back in the dictionary. Which there’ll never be but we can hope.

30. New York Giants

It always helps to have a variety of players to substitute when going against any strong defensive unit. Luckily for the Giants, they have Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward to mix it up with and interchange to keep the others fresh. Bad news for you, your not going to have all three of them on your team unless you’re an unabashed Giants homer. Or a questionable drafter.

29. Indianapolis Colts

Ah, the first team with an upper-echelon fantasy RB. The Colts play a lot of tough rushing defenses in 2008. Besides playing both the Titans and Jaguars twice, they will also have to face the Vikings, Ravens and Steelers. Does that mean you should let him slide into the third round on your draft projection sheet? No, you dumb ass. But it may behoove you to slide him behind other comparable RB’s with easier schedules. Just saying.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers brought Rashard Mendenhall in to help out the team in the wake of Willie Parkers fall-out with the end zone. Although Parker may have fallen in rank too much due to his injury last year and low TD total, his 2008 schedule is definitely a cause for concern. The Steelers only played against 4 respectable rushing defenses last year so it will be interesting to see if Parker can put up anything remotely close to 1,300 yards. Especially considering the Steelers have 8 tough rushing defenses on tap for them this year. I’m gonna go ahead and predict against that and for the record.

27. Dallas Cowboys

Marion Barber proved last year that he doesn’t discriminate against a good rushing offense and a bad one. He just goes to town regardless. Playing half of his games last year against stout rushing defenses, Barber III racked up 975 yards and 10 TD’s on 204 attempts (4.8 yards per carry). So it appears another difficult season running against talented defenses will not hinder Barber’s production. I mean, would you expect anything less from someone who’s nicknamed “The Barbarian”?

26. Houston Texans

The only thing perhaps more horrifying than the Texans backfields fantasy potential is the fact that the team plays 7 total games against some of the top run stoppers in the game. If you add the two together than you’ll likely have all the information you need.

25. Washington Redskins

Opinions on Clinton Portis’ 2008 season vary. Some think he’s going to have another season similar to his impressive 2007 while the other side thinks he’s going to regress from last year due in large part to the West Coast offense. With half of his games in 2007 being against top rushing defenses, the only other reason you think he’ll decline is if you subscribe to the West Coast theory. If not, well then there’s really no reason to expect anything different from what he did last year.

24. Detroit Lions

With Mike Martz’s departure, the Lions are said to have finally remembered that the running game is a part of the game in addition to passing. With no logical resume to reference Kevin Smith’s success against top running defenses with, this one is up in the air. If your comfortable with taking a rookie running back solely on upside and the fact the team is going to be using a zone-blocking scheme, than go for it. It’s pretty risky, though.

23. Philadelphia Eagles

Yet another top RB prospect. Here’s where this all gets interesting. Despite the Eagles having a tough 2008 rushing defense schedule, the one that they had last year was actually tougher with Westbrook going against 8 tough units last year as opposed to just 5 this year. What does that mean exactly? Well, while it’s unlikely Westbrook will eclipse the mark he set last year and enter 2,500 total yards territory, it is safe to say that it will be a lot easier for him to put up similar stats again this year.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars

The farther we get away from the top ten teams with the toughest rushing defense schedules, the more forgiving the schedule becomes. Despite playing five total teams with vaunted rushing defenses, the Jaguars get a break in between them with some easier units. With the gap between Maurice Jones Drew and Fred Taylor likely to close fast, MJD likely benefits overall while Taylor may not. The more beatings Taylor takes the more he’s going to feel it. He may be in excellent physical shape but 32 years old is 32 years old no matter how you try and sell it.

21. Tennessee Titans

Although LenDale White facing only 4 rough and tumble defenses last year would be a cause for concern if that number were increasing dramatically this year, it’s not since he’s only facing 5 this year. Rookie Chris Johnson is a risk if only because he’s a rookie but reports are that he’s progressing well and should see a fair amount of reps this season. With White being an injury risk and Johnson being inexperienced, all you’ll need to do to sleep well at night is handcuff the two of them and you’ll be fine. The schedule isn’t too big of a concern.

20. Chicago Bears

Due to the Bears QB situation, this rushing defense S.O.S. projection should be all you need to know about the Bears offense. However the Bears organization seems content with two under-achievers battling it out to lead the team. And they plan on throwing with whoever wins! So let’s stop trying to make sense of it and just change the subject. Rookie Matt Forte is said to be the real deal but his path through the 2008 season is marginally difficult. He’s been named the starter since before the pre-season even started, which was actually pretty weird. All in all, it’s buyer beware.

19. Green Bay Packers

Having been given what he felt his 10 game 2008 season was worth monetarily, Ryan Grant is ready to pick up where things left off last season. Unfortunately for him, he only played against 2 top rushing defenses last year. He’ll face 6 this year. Shouldn’t there be rules in place in regards to how long you have to play before you can demand money based on your skill? If Grant busts this year, expect the Packers to assure it will be turned into one. As for you, just snag the rookie Brandon Jackson as a handcuff. He’s been impressive.

18. San Francisco 49ers

Even though Frank Gore’s rushes should decline with Mike Martz’s arrival, he’s still going to get the ball. At least let’s hope so. Never say never with Mike Martz. When he does run, Gore will only face 1 elite rushing defense the whole year. While the rest of the schedule is consistently littered with solid units, Gore has already proved he can run no matter who he’s doing it against.

17. Seattle Seahawks

With some question marks hovering over much of the Seattle running game, the fact that the team essentially has an average run defense S.O.S. only further frustrates matters. Either you think Julius Jones will thrive and improve in Seattle or you don’t. Try just putting it that way.

16. Baltimore Ravens

Now that we’re about halfway through the list, let’s focus on the positives, shall we? First off, the Ravens run defense S.O.S. isn’t too tough. They’ll have their fair share of tough games ahead of them, but nothing Willis McGahee can’t run through. The most important thing to take into account is Cam Cameron is now running the offensive show. As LaDainian Tomlinson and the first 7 games of Ronnie Brown’s 2007 have shown, the man knows a thing or two about how to run the ball.

15. Arizona Cardinals

If you’ve been attempting to talk-up Edgerrin James to everyone, you’ve likely been told to stop kidding yourself. Or to stop talking to them because they don’t know you. What these people fail to realize, besides that your not a convicted felon, is that Edge has a favorable road ahead of him in 2008. With the still inexperienced, wee-hour loving Matt Leinart at QB, Edge may see even more carries then he did last year. He’s been there, he’s done that. He just might not do it all as well as he once did anymore.

14. St. Louis Rams

Speaking of holdouts, the Rams currently find themselves in one with Stephen Jackson. Unlike Ryan Grant however, Jackson actually deserves what he’s holding out for. Once the Rams eventually come to their senses and realize they are dealing with one of the best running backs in the franchises history, Jackson will find himself with a favorable 2008 schedule. Everything will turn out fine, it always does. That makes 3 top RB’s down, 2 to go (in case you weren’t counting).

13. Miami Dolphins

Three of Ronnie Brown’s impressive seven game 2007 campaign were against quality rushing defenses. Normally, an ACL tear would be a major concern heading into the next season. But with nearly a year to rehabilitate it, Brown should have no problem running at through and around his 2008 opponents. Especially with an easier overall schedule and another RB to help carry a bit of the load which is something that he hasn’t had in previous seasons.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Despite running his way to one of the best rookie rushing seasons in the history of the game, Adrian Peterson’s rookie season has it’s downside. Unfortunately it will ensure that at least one rookie per draft will be projected as a future Hall of Famer. And as the next ‘Adrian Peterson’. Not that it wasn’t happening before last year, but it’s going to get even worse now. Peterson enters his second season with the hopes and dreams of a bandwagon so packed, they’ve named it a double-decker bandbus. What, not funny? Peterson projects to surpass LaDainian Tomlinson as the overall #1 RB of fantasy addicts everywhere this year and he has a schedule that may help him do so. I wonder where Tomlinson will end up ranking..

11. Atlanta Falcons

L.T. backup and garbage time Hall of Famer Michael Turner has finally got his shot at a starting gig. It’s probably not the ideal situation that he envisioned but he’s still the starter none-the-less. The Falcons are in a rebuilding year this year, which is a polite way of saying that all three aspects of their team suck and need to be done over. Luckily for Turner, the Falcons are going to be playing a lot of questionable run defenses throughout the year. So even though they’ll likely finish 5-11, Turner will have a shot at 1200 or so yards. He’s a gamble, though. Don’t bank on him being one of your prominent starters unless you’re a glutton for punishment.

10. Carolina Panthers

With the Williams/Stewart 2008 debate still going in full force, I haven’t heard anyone mention that the Panthers have a very nice schedule in terms of running the ball this year. No matter who wins the starting job, he and the backup will likely both be productive. Stewart has the clear edge, but reports have been trickling out of Carolina that rejuvenate the Williams backers (myself included) all over again. So we’ll likely have to wait and see whether there will be one starter who gets 80% of the snaps or if the Panthers will take more of a 60/40 approach in favor of the starter. Probably the latter.

9. Oakland Raiders

With Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden likely to split carries until someone pulls away with the starting job, both should excel since many of the Raiders games will be against creampuff run defenses. In fact, they don’t face a respectable unit until Week 6. Even though many believe Darren McFadden will have a similar if not better season than Adrian Peterson’s rookie year, these people probably couldn’t tell you what college he went to and/or who his backup was. As I’m sure you know, both of those questions are very easy so just ignore those people since there the types of people who say things just to say they said them even when they know they’re blatantly and ridiculously wrong. Could McFadden have a great season? Yes. Will it surpass Adrian Petersons rookie year? Absolutely not. Do I like to ask myself questions? You bet!

8. Buffalo Bills

Marshawn Lynch emerged last year as a legit fantasy RB. As well as just a great RB for the select few who still don’t play fantasy football. He did this all while facing 9 very talented rushing defenses throughout the year. Not bad, especially considering he was playing on a Bills offense that wasn’t much of a threat to beat you with the passing game. Heading into 2008, Lynch finds himself with nearly opposite the schedule from last year. With many reports stating he’ll be even more involved in the passing game, I don’t think I need to tell you that these are all very good things. Especially if you have Lynch on your team. Cha-ching!

7. New York Jets

It is highly likely that Thomas Jones now believes in karma. After a 2007 season that saw him scoring only 1 rushing TD and running behind one of the worst offensive lines the Jets have ever seen, Jones must have been downtrodden. Fast forward seven months to the present and now look at the position he’s in. He has Alan Faneca and Damien Woody blocking for him, tons of people finally decided he was a legit RB due to the stats he put up in such a horrid situation and he has Brett Favre running his offense. Complete 180 turn around, right there. Plus, karma decided to throw in one of the easiest run defense S.O.S. in the league as an extra treat. It would behoove you to try and get Jones on your team especially if you had him last year.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Cadillac Williams broken down and Warrick Dunn not getting any younger, Earnest Graham is poised to be the starter in Tampa. Although the teams he faced in his breakout party last year weren’t too tough as a whole, who are we to judge? He finds himself with another great schedule for running so expect him to do so and for the Buccaneers to keep telling him to.

5. New England Patriots

It’s common knowledge that the Patriots had the easiest overall schedule in the NFL this year, so I was interested to see just how cupcake the rushing side would be. As you can see, pretty cupcake. Lawrence Maroney is poised to have a breakout year, being healthy and participating in all of training camp and pre-season and all. Although I don’t see why the Patriots will stop throwing so much until they have to, a lot of people are saying the Patriots will run a bit more this year. Who knows, since you can never accurately predict anything Bill Belichick does, but everything is in place for Maroney to finally be the running back the Patriots wanted him to be.

4. Denver Broncos

Normally one would roll their eyes at this ranking since the way Mike Shanahan uses his RB’s makes about as much sense as a eating a brownie with cranberry juice. However Ryan Torain has dislocated his elbow and damaged some ligaments. Recovery time is expected to take about three months and by then he likely won’t be able to contribute very much. That leaves the Broncos backfield with Selvin Young, Michael Pittman and Cecil Sapp. If there was ever, ever a year to take a Denver RB than this is the year. Young showed last year he’s a talented runner who can break one at anytime. Unless Mike Shanahan really likes to mess with fantasy football than Young should be the main RB this year. Never say never, though.

3. New Orleans Saints

With Deuce McAllister’s health in question and Reggie Bush’s ability to be a feature RB himself in doubt, the Saints at least find themselves with the third easiest schedule in terms of running against their opponent. If McAllister can stay healthy than Bush may have the season everyone expected of him his rookie year. If he can’t then Bush will have to split and prove he’s better than Pierre Thomas. No matter what happens, there’s a very good chance they’ll have a lot of success running the ball this year.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Too bad there’s major concern surrounding the Chiefs offensive line this year. Larry Johnson could have probably had a pre-2007 type year. With QB Brodie Croyle not fooling anyone into defending against the pass, Johnson will have to overcome poor blocking and the opposing defenses full attention in order to run successfully. He’s going to get a lot of carries and may get his fair share of yardage, but nothing like what he once was. Too bad, because they have the second easiest run defense schedule in the NFL. And that leaves..

1. San Diego Chargers

Yes, seriously.

Fantasy Extravaganza: The Top 20 QB's

I was going to make this a top 30 like the running back edition but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s QB’s in order to rank the late twenties. Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!


20. Matt Leinart (ARI)

Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at QB, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed. All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest profile bust of the 2006 draft.

19. Vince Young (TEN)

Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore. With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone and his rapport with his promising WR duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.

18. Jason Campbell (WAS)

Apparently realizing their WR corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins organization attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected 2 WR’s and 1 TE in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal. If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.

17. Jon Kitna (DET)

With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supports have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get less attempts than last year, but not dramatically so due to the mix of inexperience and under-achievement that makes up the backfield. If the offensive line can manage not to give up the league lead in sacks again, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust easier than you may think. Let’s hope he shoots for fourteen wins this year.

16. Philip Rivers (SD)

Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30% of Philip Rivers career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him. Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off of off-season ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in take in fantasy football, friend.

15. Eli Manning (NYG)

Unless your in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that despite being a Super Bowl champion QB, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season. A Super Bowl win very well could have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the post-season. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as TD’s and appear perfectly okay that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes even though he was the one who fudged the route. Only time will tell but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!

14. Matt Schaub (HOU)

The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the ass when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had actually shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing! Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are “when” and “healthy”. If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.

13. Marc Bulger (STL)

To the poorly-rounded fan, Marc Bulger’s 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TD’s, 15 INT’s). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket those stats are actually quite impressive. Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact that the Rams offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit. You see, for those of us who watched most of his games -- the fact that he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completely passed instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.

12. Jay Cutler (DEN)

Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine -- causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense. Cutler has proven after last years performance that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 QB draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket! With potential question marks at receiver besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up and coming TE Tony Scheffler (and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and he has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.

11. Derek Anderson (CLE)

Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007 and if you claim otherwise, than you sir are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation. Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.

10. David Garrard (JAC)

Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move, telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich eventually imploded in Atlanta. Although many people describe a conservative QB like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.

9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)

Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proved to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proved to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with throwing once again to a question group of WR. At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many RB’s are a part of it. If it were a lesser QB, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few QB’s who no one really doubts despite not having a clear number 1 option.

8. Brett Favre (NYJ)

Although we’d like to believe otherwise now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show -- and people are taking the over! Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regards to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I for one say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.

7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)

All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis. The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of a idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games -- with anything more just being extra. Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game -- especially one coming off of a 2,000+ yards from scrimmage season. It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting QB injury risk this year -- however it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP type numbers. Ah -- decisions, decisions.

6. Carson Palmer (CIN)

Despite being on the team who’s nickname is often associated with being arrested and going to jail, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 TD’s. Yes, he had 20 INT’s which obviously isn’t good but the guy is only human. Now with Ben Utecht as the starting TE, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball! While all signs point towards another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson realized he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho Cinco fashion (1400 yards, 8 TD’s). On the other hand, you would have The Terrell Owens Saga 2: Now Featuring Chad Johnson occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Although he threw for less yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger improved upon his TD total tenfold (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps help increase Ben’s touchdown total. Of course, that would mean he would have to stay on par with his performance from last year and since his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006 and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.

4. Drew Brees (NO)

After a horrendous start to the year in which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006 -- albeit with seven more interceptions. It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy and Devery Henderson can step it up then we may again see the offensive firepower that the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl. And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.

3. Peyton Manning (IND)

It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying that there’s a chance that the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime. Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think that the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning as well? Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Marvin should he continue to have a decreased role -- but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo. While Anthony Gonzalez shows some promise, he’s no Reggie Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game which would mean a decreased role for Manning and thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.

2. Tony Romo (DAL)

Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when your out somewhere and you can nudge whoever your with and say, “Hey, he’s on my fantasy team.” Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don’t really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy. Back on topic, Romo has got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some. T.O. is getting up there in age but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or another the past few years. Although he is approaching 35 years old, in Terrell Owens fitness years that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet. It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.



1. Tom Brady (NE)

I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s number one, well then -- just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything period.

A Case For DeAngelo Williams

Since the middle of last year, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen about how 2008 will be DeAngelo Williams’ breakout year. I sincerely believed it and still do, but it's gotten progressively harder with each passing month. He has things to work on, he has fundamentals to learn and now has a talented young rookie ready to take the starting job. If Williams can clear up the problems he has with blocking and picking up the blitz, he has the talent to not only keep the majority of carries, but keep them for a long time.

Word out of Panthers camp is that they’ve more or less given up on him as the starter due to his pass protection issues and view him mainly as a supplementary, third-down back. Never one to go back on a prediction unless there’s blatant evidence to the contrary staring me in the face, I decided to try and go into some of the reasons the Panthers shouldn’t give up on Williams just yet. Plus, it keeps the hope alive since there may or may not have been some money wagered on this very topic.

Williams has seen some injuries both in college and the pros and many believe that at 5’9” and 217 pounds he doesn’t have what it takes to withstand the vigor’s that come with being a starting running back. Coming to this conclusion years from now would be okay, but Williams is going into his third NFL season. Third. There's plenty of evidence to support that it just takes some players a couple of years to get their bodies and minds on the NFL level. Late bloomers, if you will. But just because may bloom late doesn't mean that they can't bloom at all.

The perfect example? Brian Westbrook. Westbrook had a similar rep for getting injured from time to time and at 5’10” and 203 pounds he is almost anatomically identical to Williams. Early on in his career he too wasn’t considered a starting running back but over time he has proven to be fully capable and a dual threat weapon that gives defenses and opposing fantasy owners alike fits.

Westbrook and Williams’ receiving stats from their first two years are nearly identical (418 and 488 yards respectably), with Williams rushing for around 400 more yards than Westbrook (1,218 compared to 806 yards).

It’s hard to believe that Williams isn’t working as hard as he can on his blocking deficiencies if that’s the major reason the organization is weary of him becoming the starter. He’s only been in the league two years, playing the third down back/speedster with good hands role the entire time. Either he hasn’t had enough solid in game experience to become proficient at it or maybe he was trying to do too much and hit a home run with every carry.

The Panthers have gone 15-17 the past two years and for most of 2007 didn’t have a competent quarterback under center. With the QB not really a threat, defenses had no problems using different blitzing packages to counter-attack the run and rush the passer. Is it that much of a stretch to think that maybe the different combinations of blitzes the Panthers offense faced last year had a tad to do with Williams’ inability to pick them up? Either that, or maybe he didn't really take blocking too seriously in his early years. With age, perhaps he realizes that although he's got the rushing skills, he needs to have the blocking skills as well. I get epiphanies like this every day. There along the lines of realizing I actually need to budget my money and the like, but there epiphanies none-the-less.

Although Williams may have been partially to blame, the offensive line should be taking some heat, especially considering the Panthers QB’s were sacked once every 15.3 plays last season. Assuming Delhomme returns to a healthy form, some solid studying of blitz packages and a better understanding of who to block when under assignment in the backfield, Williams should be just fine. There's no question he has the rushing skills to be successful, at least not in my mind.

Williams has more rushing yards than all but four of the running backs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft and he’s had 50-200 less carries than the top five. He also has the fourth highest receiving yards out of all of the 2006 rookie running backs and considering that everyone who has ahead of him in rushing and reception yards are starters, it’s safe to assume that Williams could be an feature back if he was just given more snaps.

With nearly every team drifting towards a running back by committee, the Panthers already have one set up for the future. If Williams can fix his affinity for blocking, picking up the blitz and getting the occasional injury, the Panthers organization would be crazy not to give him a chance to be the starter out of this young committee.

JG8D69D

A Fantasy Extravaganza: Top 30 Running Backs

With approximately 75 fantasy football magazines currently available at any given supermarket, it is safe to assume that the fantasy football season has officially begun. In order to get myself ready, and because I’m so nice I have ranked the top 30 skill position players and then provided the in-depth commentary on why I have done so. Will my rankings differ from yours or many of the other rankings out there? Uh, is an apple different than a stapler? YES! Opinions on all rankings will vary, but just remember that all of the rankings out there are just that, opinion and speculation. My intention is for these rankings to get your mental, fantasy-sports-related juices flowing if they haven't already. Also, due to possible fantasy league spies these rankings may be slightly different from my actual rankings. Or they may not. Only I will know and that’s just the way I’m going to keep it!

As always, enjoy and feel free to disagree vehemently while calling for my head in the comments.

WARNING: This whole thing is pretty long, so you better have some free time to read it or at least be bored at work. Either that or print it out -- it makes excellent bathroom reading, I've heard.

TOP 30 FANTASY RUNNING BACKS

30. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Although my support for DeAngelo Williams is well documented, even I can’t deny that the talented rookie Jonathan Stewart will win the Panthers starting job. He has power, he has speed and he apparently has the support of nearly every single person in the Panthers organization save for Williams himself. Barring a major setback in his recovery from a turf toe injury, Stewart should be the new rusher in town as well as provide your team with a decent amount of fantasy points.

29. Julius Jones (SEA) - Even though Jones never did stand out in the Cowboys offense, playing second fiddle to Marion “The Barbarian” Barber and all, a change of scenery and a new offense that will favor the running game might be just what Julius needs. T.J. Duckett will take much of the goal lines carries away, but Jones should be given the bulk of the overall workload. He’s definitely an upside pick, so don’t put too much stake in him or you may regret it when he puts up similar stats from when he was in Dallas.

28. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) - Regardless of Willie Parker’s rankings free fall due to his broken leg and low 2007 TD total, he will still be the go to guy in Pittsburgh. Mendenhall on the other hand is an upside pick with not a lot of risk since he’s going to be getting most of the goal line carries and spelling an often fragile Parker, anyway.

27. LenDale White (TEN) - Despite playing in an offense with hardly any passing game, White sprung upon the scene last year with 1,108 yards and 7 TD’s. With this being Vince Young’s second year with his primary receivers, White should enjoy an increased amount of defenses dropping more people back to defend the pass. Or at least that’s what the Titans organization hopes. Regardless, even though rookie Chris Johnson may spell him, White should see the majority of carries and goal line attempts.

26. Thomas Jones (NYJ) - The fact that T.J. had a total of two TD’s last year has overshadowed that he managed to rack up 1,119 yards behind one of the worst lines in the league. The off-season signings of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should ensure that he will at least have a competent offensive line. It’s a risky pick because he’s either going to excel with his improved blockers or flop and show everyone that he just doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter. That decision is up to you.

25. Darren McFadden (OAK) - Despite being touted as the best back in the NFL draft, McFadden is not the top back in most running back rankings. This is likely due to the fact that McFadden will be lining up behind JaMarcus Russell, who is still technically a rookie himself. Since it takes inexperienced quarterbacks a lot longer to get acquainted with the game than their running back counterparts, McFadden will get a plethora of carries and an official diploma from the NFL’s rookie running back university.

24. Fred Taylor (JAX) - The past couple years has seen Fred Taylor do the exact opposite of what everyone had predicted him to do, with that opposite being him producing. Taylor has had more than 1100 yards and at least 5 TD’s in each of his last two seasons. While it’s hard to imagine him just suddenly dropping off, he is 32 years old and it is going to happen eventually. The question is, when? With Maurice Jones Drew entering his third season and maturing all the while, Taylor may still be productive this year but not enough to warrant a key RB spot on your roster. Although he is a solid and safe late round pick. Do with it what you will.

23. Matt Forte (CHI) - With news of the release of team castoff and Ricky Williams-esque Cedric Benson, Forte’s stock has soared. Even before he was the unanimous number one back on the roster, Forte had created a buzz that was not heard during the Draft due to his emergence from Conference USA. Although the Bears themselves have proclaimed the rookie as their starter, he still finds himself on the Bears offense which has question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and pretty much ever single position except for running back. So despite him getting the majority of all the carries, don’t expect his rookie year to be Adrian Peterson-esque. Think more along the lines of a poor mans, rookie Marshawn Lynch.

22. Michael Turner (ATL) - How Michael Turner will turn out can likely be put in a better perspective when you take into account his performance last year when he filled in for an injured L.T. in the playoffs. Although 3.8 yards per carry isn’t necessarily bad, it was a bit worse than his career average that he’d racked up shredding fatigued defenses as Tomlinson’s backup until that point. That was then. Now, Turner finds himself on a Falcons team that is in the process of rebuilding with inexperience at many key parts of the offense. Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his contract, Turner’s quarterback Matt Ryan is actually a rookie, who will go through the learning curves that plague all rookie signal callers.

21. Edgerrin James (ARI) - Edge has officially turned the magical yet dreadful age of 30, which is the benchmark age for when running backs will begin to decline. After a largely disappointing 2006 considering his success in Indianapolis, Edge improved slightly in 2007 in yards, average and TD’s. Although 1,224 yards and 7 TD’s isn’t necessarily bad, it is safe to say that it may be very close to his ceiling now that he’s turned the big three-oh. Even with promise of a more balanced attack, the Cardinals offensive line is still unfortunately the same and it is likely Edgerrin’s stats will stay that way as well.

20. Willie Parker (PIT) - With Parker’s 11 TD decline from 2006 into 2007, breaking his leg late in the season didn’t help his fantasy stock. The arrival of rookie Rashard Mendenhall also didn’t bode well for his future TD total either. What Parker does bring to the table is the yardage that he racks up. He is still an incredibly skilled rusher that can put up big numbers on the ground no matter how TD-less or injury prone his season may be.

19. Brandon Jacobs (N.Y.G.) - The heir to Tiki Barber’s throne after his retirement, Jacobs proved he could handle the job when healthy. Unfortunately for Jacobs, so did Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s recent court troubles could get him suspended if the event in question happened post-draft. A Bradshaw suspension could be all Jacobs needs to claim the starters spot once and for all so it would behoove you to keep an eye on the situation.

18. Jamal Lewis (CLE) - Even though the Browns offense and more importantly offensive line have largely remained the same, many are still doubting Lewis can repeat his 2007 success. Without a suitable backup or a threat to steal some of his goal line carries, the only thing that could stop Lewis from continuing upon last year’s success is either injury or age. Lewis is approaching 30 and the enormous amount of carries he has on his odometer has to take it’s toll at some point. It’s hard to imagine his decline happening so quickly and suddenly without some type of injury, though.

17. Lawrence Maroney (N.E.) - Being the RB on one of the best passing games of all time doesn’t leave you in a position to get tons of carries. Nor does it help having a coach who likes to spell his backfield every two downs or so. Entering his 3rd season and with Kevin Faulk likely to see a decreased role, Maroney is a prime candidate to breakout this year. Unfortunately, “breaking out” for a running back on the Patriots offense means about 1,100 yards and 8 TD’s. On the bright side, that’s still better than Rudi Johnson who you targeted last year.

16. Reggie Bush (N.O.) - Reggie Bush is a classic case of too much hype due to college performance. Although Bush has proven he is a worthy complimentary rusher and a skilled receiving back, the Barry Sanders like expectations have left many disappointed after his first two seasons in the league. With his rushing skills likely to improve over time, it may just take him a few more years until he’s a suitable starter. Even in his current complimentary situation, his rushing yards and receiving yards combined equal enough points to make him a worthy target in your draft. Not to mention his ceiling would have him turning into a Brian Westbrook type back. Not bad. I we think we can finally chill out with comparing Hall of Fame players to rookies that are being drafted, though. No?

15. Earnest Graham (T.B.) - Graham proved to be one of the most valuable, out-of-the-blue waiver wire pickups of the 2008 season. The only option after injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, Graham nearly rumbled himself to 1,000 yards, finishing instead with 898 and 10TD’s. With Warrick Dunn’s return to Tampa, Graham will likely lose some carries, but he can easily claim the starting spot if he can prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. 175 fantasy points if you can guess correctly!

14. Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Although his recovery from an ACL tear is a major concern, Brown benefits from sustaining the injury early in the season last year as well as returning to a vastly improved Dolphins offense. With Ricky Williams back in town, he likely won’t need to carry all of the load immediately as long as Williams stays away from the reefer. Brown is still a risky pick, but as 602 yards and 7 TD’s in 7 games last year showed, not one without a potential hefty reward.

13. Willis McGahee (BAL) - Even though the Ravens have major question marks on offense, the rushing game is not one of them. A top notch rusher and capable receiver, McGahee should top 300 carries for the first time since 2005 due to the sub-par and inexperienced options at quarterback. Although his new and improved ACL will be tested under such a workload, if he can handle the strain and put up his usual numbers than his fantasy numbers will be just fine. Even if he is in on one of the worst offensive units in the game.

12. Larry Johnson (K.C.) - A slow start, poor passing game and foot injury all contributed to Johnson’s worst season as a starter last year. Even if he can avoid the slow start and injuries this year, the Chiefs still have no passing attack and the shoddy offensive line remains the same. Although he‘ll get his carries, he will also be the focal point of every defense the team plays. Good thing we’ve seen what he can do before so you can educated decision on whether or not to take the gamble. The upside is high, although the downside is low. Take your pick.

11. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) - Even with Fred Taylor still going strong, Jones-Drew should slowly but surely take over primary back duties. With a rushing average of a bit more than 5 yards per carry average in his first two years, superb hands out of the backfield and game breaking ability, Jones-Drew’s low touches are overshadowed by his supreme upside. Whenever he takes over the reigns in Jacksonville and gets more time on the field, expect his value to skyrocket up the charts. Even if this year is not his year, he still pumps out a solid amount of fantasy points and presents upside that is hard to pass up on.

10. Ryan Grant (G.B.) - Grant won biggest out-of-the-blue honors in 2007 and helped many teams win championships had they had the clarity to pick him. I for one ended up taking Priest Holmes over Grant with my last waiver wire pick up in my keeper league. Suffice to say, I did not make the playoffs and will probably never forgive myself. Grant placed a firm hold on the starter position with his end of the season performances last year and isn’t realistically threatened by anyone as long as he can continue production and stay away from injuries. Therein lies the catch, however. The question is if Grant will be able to continue his break-out year last year and stay away from the injuries that can plague a starting RB. All aren’t huge concerns but worth taking into account should you find yourself about to draft him.

9. Marion Barber (DAL) - Anyone with the nickname “The Barbarian” had to have earned it somewhere down the line and it’s no surprise if you’ve seen Barber run. He is a powerful, agile back who doesn’t stop running until the whistle blows. He has a wreck less abandon for anything but positive yardage and ultimately the end zone. Even with Jerry Jones favorite Felix Jones being plugged into the offense and taking some carries away, Barber will be the goal line back and Barber will get the majority of the carries. You can’t be the best back on one of the best offenses in the league for nothing, you know.

8. Frank Gore (S.F.) - Gore’s 1,102 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards and 6 total TD’s isn’t very impressive at first glance, but take into account that he did it all on the worst offense and the league and you’ve got yourself a better picture. Gore was the only bright spot on an otherwise anemic 49ers offense last year. Having brought in Mike Martz to fix the offense has caused many people to declare Gore a sleeper for next year. Since I still don’t know the correct definition of sleeper, all I will say is that if Martz can turn Alex Smith into a competent QB than Gore has the talent to reap all of the rushing and receiving rewards a Martz system has to offer the starting RB. His rushing total may go down, but his receptions, receiving yards and total TD’s should all go up. Cha-ching!

7. Marshawn Lynch (BUF) - Lynch is another RB who put up impressive stats on a not-so-impressive offense. In 13 games last year he ran for 1,115 yards and 7 TD’s. With Trent Edwards looking to be everything J.P. Losman was not, Lynch at least has a suitable and blossoming passing game to take some attention away from him. Rumor has it that the Bills will also be utilizing Lynch’s pass catching skills a lot more this year which in layman‘s terms means he‘ll be on the field even more. An injury last year is a small concern as to his dependability, but a year through the gauntlet should have taught him what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.

6. Clinton Portis (DEN) - Portis returned to pre-2006 form last year, finishing in the Top 5 for fantasy points accrued. A new system has turned some people off as to Portis’ 2008 potential, but he is too talented a player not to utilize half of the offensive play calling on. Though he’ll likely see less carries, Portis should still fare just fine, especially considering his pass catching skills. Portis caught 47 balls for 389 yards last year and although he’ll get less carries, he’ll get more receptions. It all evens out. Trust me.

5. Joseph Addai (IND) - Although Addai didn’t get as many yards as the top RB’s last year, he more than compensated with his end zone trips. Addai had 15 total TD’s last year to pair with a solid 1,072 rushing yards and 364 reception yards. He’s the top back on one of the most prolific offenses in the game, but his total upside keeps him out of the upper-echelon. If your looking for a safe pick who will have plenty of opportunities to score TD’s than Addai is your guy. Although enjoying Peyton Manning’s commercials also helps.

4. Stephen Jackson (STL) - In only twelve games and behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game, Jackson still managed to amass just over 1,000 yards and tack on 6 total TD’s. With a healthy offensive line and a more run-heavy offense, Jackson could very well return to pre-2007 form, where he was in the conversation for top running back overall. He gives you rushing yards, he gives you reception yards and he scores TD’s. Injuries are a problem due to last year, but should his offensive line remain healthy, he should cruise through the season with little to no problems.

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) - As fantastic as Peterson was last year and as much hype as he caused, I still find it hard to rank a back who’s had one fantastic year over a back who’s had them for his entire seven-year career. Peterson very well could prove that he’s the top running back in the game this year, however his quarterback is questionable and his backup running back proved he could do a suitable job if given spell-carries. If A.P. can have an equally impressive Year 2, he’ll not only win over just me, he’ll likely win over the entire game of professional football. We’ll be watching!

2. LaDainian Tomlinson (S.D.) - Tomlinson has basically been a machine until he showed us his mortality with an MCL injury in the playoffs. He has been the face of fantasy football since he stormed upon the league in 2001 and with good reason: He can run, he can catch, he can score and if you haven’t heard -- he’s awfully classy! With the birthday cake reading 29 this year, L.T. may finally see the decline we thought impossible for so many years. Even so, he’ll still likely put up top-notch numbers this year and many years down the road. His upside is way too high to not warrant him at least a number 2 ranking.

1. Brian Westbrook (PHI) - After gaining sole control of the Eagles RB spot sometime in 2005, Brian Westbrook has made a steady improvement in his game and more importantly, his fantasy points. The year 2006 saw the biggest jump while Westbrook showed us in 2007 then he can run for more yards as well as improve on his already ridiculous reception numbers. Going into 2008 he is the whole package. He does everything you could want from your featured fantasy running back and he does it while proving his injury critics incorrect. Having played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons, Westbrook is slated for perhaps the finest season of his career in 2008. At age 28, he could very well have his peak season this year. Even if he has peaked and he backpedals a bit, 240 fantasy points isn’t too bad for a RB’s low side is it? Is it? Hello? Is anyone still reading this?