Showing posts with label State of the Franchise. Show all posts
Showing posts with label State of the Franchise. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

State of the Franchise: The Green Bay Packers

At the start of the 2007 season, many were claiming that Brett Favre had made a mistake choosing to come back and play one more year. There was no denying he was once a great player, one of the best QB’s to ever play the game -- but it was common belief that he didn’t have it in him anymore. He was throwing too many interceptions as evidenced by his 2005 and 2006 campaigns. In those two years he threw 38 touchdowns, versus 47 interceptions. His QB rating over that two year span was 71.8, the lowest two year span of his career, and it spawned speculation of his impending retirement.


Favre flirted with the idea, all the while hinting that he didn’t appreciate the Packers’ brass’ lack of enthusiasm for surrounding him with playmakers. Sure he had Ahman Green, but his starts were inconsistent due to injury. Donald Driver was always there, but no one would ever mistake him for a big time number one receiver. Javon Walker flashed some brilliance in 2004, but he then proceeded to miss the entire 2005 season with an ankle injury.

After attempting but failing to acquire Randy Moss and several other high profile players, Favre apparently felt that the Packers were at least trying to surround him with quality players so he tentatively returned for what would turn out to be his final NFL season.

Heading into the 2007, hopes were high in Green Bay because hey, it was Green Bay -- and anytime Brett Favre was your QB, no matter how past his prime he appeared to be, you still had a chance.

Packers fans would not be disappointed.

Many different factors went into why the Packers had such a successful year and the up and coming defense was arguably the most important one. Led by the veteran cornerback duo of Al Harris and Charles Woodson, ever improving young linebacker A.J. Hawk and Packer mainstay linebacker Nick Barnett, the Packers finished the season ranked 11th in total defense. The defensive line, anchored by Aaron Kampman was also a constant problem for opposing offenses. The defense would rank 6th in points given up per game with 18.2.

Another major reason for the Packer resurgence was rookie running back Ryan Grant’s emergence as a capable compliment to Favre’s rediscovered passing abilities. On just 188 attempts Grant would win his way into the hearts of Packers fans and fantasy waiver wire whores alike, rushing for 956 yards and 8 TD’s (averaging 5.1 yards per carry).

Oh, and Brett Favre didn’t have a bad season either. A strong case could be made that Favre’s 2007 season was the finest of his career -- with him passing for 4,155 yards and 28 TD’s (with just 15 interceptions). Even more impressive was his 66.5 percent completion percentage, the best that he has ever had to date. Favre looked youthful surrounded by the many youngsters on offense and more importantly, he looked like he was having fun playing football again. Such a thing is key for someone who went their whole career giving NFL Films A+ comedy material whenever he was miked up during a game.


Who do you think #4 would want taking over his job?

The Packers would lose just 3 games during the 2007 season and seemed destined for a fairy tale showdown with the, until then, unbeaten New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. As with many things in life, things didn’t turn out how everyone wanted (well maybe they did in regards to the Patriots losing..) and the Packers would fall to the soon to be world champion New York Giants in a thrilling, chilly overtime NFC Championship game. Both the new, improved Favre and the old and graying Favre would show up for the Championship game, with the aging Favre being the victor in regards to his performance. He looked cold, sore and out of it at times during the game and the second of his two interceptions would clinch the Giants winning OT field goal. Exit stage left, Favre.

At the end of the season, after much speculation -- Brett Favre would retire from the game of football after 17 years of Hall of Fame performances and entertaining clips and highlights. All of Wisconsin (and to a lesser extent John Madden) was floored and distraught by the news. Many thought he would be back but up until the present day, it appears to be not so. It would appear we have seen the last of Brett Favre, sans Madden appearances.

With the exception of the Bubba Franks and Corey Williams departures and Brett Favre’s retirement the Packers team remains relatively the same. The bad thing is that they have an inexperienced quarterback set to try and fill in Favre’s shoes in Aaron Rodgers. He’s thrown less than 60 regular season passes and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll turn out. It’s not easy filling in Brett Favre’s shoes and the Packers didn’t make it any easier by drafting Brian Brohm, a very capable quarterback out of Louisville in the second round. Had Brohm entered the draft last year, it was likely he could have gone number one overall. However, even though he had his best year statistically his senior year, his team failed to compete. Add to that a poor combine performance and you have yourself the reason why he fell to the end of the second round, no matter how silly it may seem.

As if Rodgers life wasn’t hard enough preparing to take the reigns in the capital city of football and a skilled young rookie behind him on the depth chart, the Packers decided they needed yet another QB and took Matt Flynn in the seventh round. Talk about getting insurance. While Flynn isn’t really considered a threat for the starting job, it is a head-scratcher on why the Packers brass decided to completely shatter any confidence Rodgers may have kept in the wake of Favre’s retirement and reports of the Packers impending demise.

Poor decisions aside, there has been a Favre backup who has gone on to have a fantastic career: Matt Hasselbeck. While he didn’t take over the QB job in Green Bay, he did become a three time Pro Bowler for the Seattle Seahawks. Obviously, he’s accomplished most of this through hard work and skill but you have to wonder just how much Favre taught his young protégé in the two years he mentored him. Rodgers has had three years to tutor under Favre and to think he hasn’t learned a thing or two would probably make you incorrect.

Having sat on the Packers bench the past three years may have caused people to forget about Rodgers’ skills. I know he hasn’t started in a while, but the kid’s good! Unless he’s been doing absolutely nothing on the sideline the past three years (See: Jared Lorenzen), I think he should be a pretty good QB. I also don’t think Favre is the type who would let him slack off. Joke around and make fun of him? Yes. Sit by and watch him not study and work hard? Absolutely not.

Cue Rodgers’ college statistics!


Year Team Comp. Att. Comp. % Yards YPC TD’s INT’s
2003 Cal 215 349 61.6% 2,903 13.5 19 5
2004 Cal 209 316 66.1% 2,566 12.2 24 8
T o t a l s 424 665 63.8% 5,469 12.8 43 13


Not bad for someone who’s supposed to run the Packers into the ground. If Rodgers can keep his dignity after the draft fiasco the Packers had and focus on playing solid football, he has the talent around him to succeed. Veteran wide receiver Donald Driver is returning for his 31st season and 2007 breakout star Greg Jennings will be back as well. Rodgers will have the opportunity to start fresh with rookies Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. Tight end Donald Lee looks ready to be the number one tight end after an impressive 2007 and rookie sensation Ryan Grant looks ready to continue making huge contributions via the running game.

The offensive line, which also remains relatively unchanged looks to protect Rodgers as they did Brett Favre last year, in which they surrendered a mere 15 sacks for the entire year. The good news is that Aaron Rodgers will be in an opportunity to succeed. The bad news is that every start, hell, every pass will be analyzed under a microscope both locally in Green Bay and nationally. If he can ignore these distractions and play to his skill level, he should be fine. If he plays QB like Aaron Rodgers rather than trying to play QB like Brett Favre, he’ll be fine.



As much as I disagree with the decision by the Packers front office to take two QB’s in the draft to back up one who has yet to play more than seven games, they did cover their ass quite well. Instead of pinning their hopes of a Brett Favre successor on one QB they decided to give themselves options. While this will work out should Aaron Rodgers falter, it’s going to be a slippery slope. It has QB controversy etched with a jagged knife all over it. The decision is either going to work out and one of the three young quarterbacks will grow and become the Packers new franchise QB or it will backfire in their faces and at least two will have started different games before Week 8. A media frenzy would then commence.

The best thing for the Packers to do is keep the job as Rodgers’ to lose. By the end of the pre-season, pick one of them and stick with it for better or worse until you know what you have. If they can stay away from the pitfalls of having too many intriguing options open at all times, they should be just fine. If not, you’re going to be hearing a lot of about the Packers starting quarterback ‘job’ this coming year.

Monday, April 21, 2008

State of the Franchise: The St. Louis Rams

Having finished the 2006 season 8-8, many were optimistic about the Rams chances going into 2007. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt were yet again returning, along with newly crowned elite back Stephen Jackson. Not that anyone goes into an NFL season expecting the worst, but this particular Rams team had a lot of weapons and it was safe to assume they would contend for the NFC West title.

Unfortunately, they did not.

In fact, it wasn't even close. Not only did they not contend, but through various injuries they finished second worst in the entire NFL. Marc Bulger had his worst season since he came into the NFL in 2001. The defense wasn’t one of the best in the league, but it at least wasn’t the sole reason for their disappointing season. Through poor play and even poorer placed injuries, the Rams just never got it started for the 2007 season.

Luckily for them, one of their key weaknesses of the season can be easily remedied through the NFL draft. Sitting at number two in the first round, the Rams have a fantastic shot at Jake Long, the premier offensive lineman of the draft and a sure shot to make an impact for years to come.


The key thing for the Rams to build upon in the upcoming draft is the offensive line. Marc Bulger was actually knocked out for a couple of games for broken ribs in 2007. He broke these ribs because the offensive line failed to protect him on multiple plays. Yes, he had already injuried them the previous week and still decided to play (which is commendable, but come on) -- aggravating the injury -- but guess who’s fault the injury was in the first place? That’s right, the offensive line.

Are you noticing a pattern here? Assuming the Dolphins do not take Jake Long, the Rams would and should take him at number two. Never has such a prized prospect fit such a glaring weakness so perfectly in all the years that I could remember. With new rumors that Vernon Gholston might go number one to the Dolphins, the Rams still must be a mess. Just a week ago, it was reported that Jake Long was in contract talks with the Dolphins, should they choose to draft him.

Their entire franchises fate appears to hinge on how this plays out. Obviously, they can still succeed without him but it would still hurt if they failed to land him. It almost seems to be too good of a match and that in a perfect reality, the Dolphins would take J. Long, the Rams would be stuck between a rock and hard place and their entire draft strategy would be destroyed. Yes, there are many, many great O.L. prospects that will be available in the middle rounds but they would fit in all the better should the Rams acquire Jake Long. I don’t think I’ve ever been so excited about an offensive lineman going to a particular team in the Top 5 in my history with the game. Then again, I have Marc Bulger in my keeper league, so having Jake Long be his new bodyguard would make me all the more biased.

Much has been said about the offensive line in regards to pass protection, but let’s look at the obvious here: They aren’t very good at run blocking either. Yes, 2006 saw them block their way towards Stephen Jackson becoming a league icon. But through different departures and here it is again, injuries, the offensive line took a step backwards in 2007. A fresh young recruit with the potential to be the anchor for the line for many years to come should add a spark to an otherwise anemic unit.

Although they lost Issac Bruce to free agency, the Rams did sign WR Reche Caldwell and TE Anthony Becht. Reche Caldwell obviously isn’t a premier receiver, but as he showed with the Patriots -- if he’s with a skilled quarterback (I'm looking at you Bulger, stay healthy!), he can put up some decent numbers.

Stephen Jackson looks to return from an injury riddled 2007 and build upon his previous dominance. Look for him to be a candidate for comeback player of the year.

Looking at the NFC West, the Seahawks would appear to be the early favorite, but with the 49ers and Cardinals rounding out the division, the Rams have to feel good about their chances.

If they can get back to their previous years’ form they could easily be a contender for the division title. Also, if the Rams can solidify their leaky O-line and build upon their defense, they could easily remedy their 2007 season. While they might not achieve the previous title of Greatest Show on Turf, they have the potential to put up some points when everyone is on and healthy. Key word healthy.

Prediction: A respectable 8-8 finish, 3rd place in the NFC West. Interaction: Add your prediction and why in the comments.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

State of the Franchise: The Miami Dolphins

When a team goes 1-15 in a season, besides from being a mortal lock for the number one overall pick in the upcoming draft, they don’t have much going for them. The chemistry can’t be good after so many losses and even if the team is successful in filling it’s many weaknesses, it’s still very unlikely they’ll approach .500 the next year. In essence, if you’re a Dolphins fan, don’t bank on a playoff bid in 2008, barring an absolute miracle season for the ages. Sorry.

With that said, the good news is that the Dolphins have just the man in place for the massive rebuilding project: Bill Parcells. Say what you want about the man (and many people have) but he does have skill in turning teams from worst to first. Or at least worst to almost first. Sure, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1990 (I was... four) -- but he’s had some successful rebuilding projects in his coaching career and he is to thank for much of the Cowboys recent stature as a league powerhouse. Here’s a list of the teams Parcells has taken over, their record the year prior to him taking over, followed by their records the three years after he became 'the boss'.

New York Giants

1982 (Perkins): 4-5

1983 (Parcells): 3-12-1

1984 (Parcells): 9-7 (made playoffs)

1985 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)

New England Patriots

1992 (MacPherson): 2-14

1993 (Parcells): 5-11

1994 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)

1995 (Parcells): 6-10

New York Jets

1996 (Kotite): 1-15

1997 (Parcells): 9-7

1998 (Parcells): 12-4 (made playoffs)

1999 (Parcells): 8-8

Dallas Cowboys

2002 (Campo): 5-11

2003 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)

2004 (Parcells): 6-10

2005 (Parcells): 9-7

The conclusion we can draw from this data? Disregarding playoff appearances (although he made the postseason at least once with each team he took over within two years) it is safe to say that Bill Parcells taking over horrible teams has a dramatic effect. None of them won Super Bowls, save for his Giants days -- but the teams had drastic turnarounds thanks to his coaching and personnel decisions.

Whether or not the Dolphins will stay with John Beck as their future QB remains to be seen. He didn’t look good in his five games last season, but I’m going to continue to practice what I preach and say the Dolphins need to wait a bit before they decide if he’s not for them. Still, though, if Beck plays like he did last year the Dolphins QB situation is dire. Trent Green was serviceable last year until his career was ended by another concussion.

Josh McCown was brought in in the off season and looks to the leader for the starting job going into the 2008 season. Again, the Dolphins QB situation is dire.

A bright spot on the Dolphins (and my fantasy team) for next year is Ronnie Brown. Before going down with an injury in Week 7, Brown was tearing it up, rushing for 602 yards on 119 attempts and 4 TD’s. Had he not gotten injured, the Dolphins very well could have won 3-4 games, something that more or less would have meant absolutely nothing, other than possibly dropping them out of the first overall selection.

Chris Chambers was traded to the Chargers in mid-season last year for a second round pick, leaving Ted Ginn Jr. as the team’s projected number one receiver in 2008. Ginn is regarded as one of the biggest busts of the 2007 draft. Did I say the Dolphins QB situation was dire? I meant the majority of the team.

Luckily for the Dolphins, they have a total of nine selections in the 2008 NFL Draft. These include the number one overall selection, two picks in rounds two, six and seven and one pick in round three. While Parcells draft history isn’t the best in the league, he’s still a good judge of talent and any type of talent will help this team.

The number one selection has been the subject of much controversy over the last couple of months. Some have said the Dolphins will take Glenn Dorsey, then it was Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan -- and some have said they would trade out of it. I subscribe to the belief that they will take Chris Long because he just seems like a right fit for a Parcells run team. But even if they take Jake Long, they’re still getting a great player -- they can’t really go wrong either way. As we learned from the 2006 draft, anything can happen with the first pick (See: Mario Williams over Reggie Bush). So it will be interesting to see if the Dolphins do what everyone thinks they're going to do and take a sure thing, or take a gamble and select someone that their scouting department thinks is the best player available at number one. Vernon Gholston anyone?

Rumor has it that defensive end Jason Taylor wants out of Miami and Parcells sure as hell won’t keep him around if he has too. Don’t be surprised if Taylor is involved in a draft day trade, especially considering his appearance on Dancing with the Stars. I'm sure the Tuna was pissed about that one.

The Dolphins defensive unit, who was once regarded one of the best in the league, finished 23rd overall last year. The passing defense was actually quite good, finishing 4th, while the rushing defense lived up to the offenses horrendous performances and finished last in the league. This is a major reason why I think the Dolphins will take Chris Long over Jake Long -- it would just make sense due to their weaknesses. Again, Gholston anyone?

Another desperate need for the Dolphins was wide receiver and they attempted to remedy this with the signing of Earnest Wilford. He’s nothing special, but anything will help the receiving corps at this point and Wilford is definitely not a liability. He’ll just need a decent QB to throw him the ball, that’s all.

After last year’s 1-15 finish, it’s a perfect time to bust out the saying: ‘Things can’t really get any worse.’ That at least hinges on the Dolphins not finishing 0-16 next season and honestly, that’s not going to happen. Really though, things can’t get any worse. No one is really expecting a 9-7 or 10-6 season from this team next year and if it happens, hey, all the power to them and all the Cinderella excitement for us. But hopefully, Dolphins fans realize that this is a rebuilding process and unfortunately the upcoming year is the bridge to eventual success.

But look on the bright side: The Dolphins have nine picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. It’s a certainty that many of those rookies will provide bright spots next year and perhaps show a preview of what’s to come. Some have said that the 2007 Dolphins were one of the worst teams to have ever played in the NFL and one could definitely make the case for this. But at least they have the tools and now with Parcells in the front office, the personnel to get this historic franchise on the right track and back to it’s winning ways.

State of the Franchise: The Minnesota Vikings

While the NFC East is easily recognizable as the most talented division in the NFC, one could make the case that the NFC North is the second. While the Packers surprised everyone and finished with the #2 seed in the NFC last year, the Vikings and Lions, who combined to win a total of nine games in 2006 sprung upon the scene -- and although both failed to make the
playoffs, they showed that they had what it takes to make the NFC North just as competitive as it was years ago.

Going into last season, no one really knew what to make of Tarvaris Jackson and whether or not he had the skill and toughness to be the starting QB for the Vikings. Sixteen games later (Jackson played in twelve of them) and it’s clear that he indeed does have what it takes, and should continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable and gains more game experience. He finished the year with 1,911 yards, 9 TD’s, 12 INT’s, a 58.2 completion percentage and a respectable 70.8 QB rating.

Another key player in the Vikings resurgence was 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Adrian “All-Day” Peterson. Unless you lived under a rock last year, you were sure to see many of his impressive highlights -- some of the best being from the game in which he broke the single game rushing record. That’s right, he broke the single game rushing record. As a rookie. He’s quite good. If you don’t believe the evidence staring at you from your computer screen, take a look at his 2007 season’s stat line:

238 rushes for 1341 yards (5.6 average) and 12 TD’s (4 fumbles) -- 19 receptions for 268 yards and 1 TD

Did I mention he was a rookie? What about the fact that he faced eight men in the box for the majority of the season? Are you impressed yet?

Had he failed to injure himself and miss Weeks 11 and 12 he could have arguably won the NFL MVP award as well, something that would have cemented his name in NFL history in just his first year. If he can stay away from injuries, something that hasn’t been a major factor -- but definitely a nagging one throughout his career, we very well could be seeing before our very eyes the ascent of one the best backs to ever grace a professional football field. Just like his nickname hints at, once you see him run you just want to watch him do so all day.

Minnesota’s 2007 defense was polarizing to say the least. Although they finished last in the league in passing defense, they did it while finishing first in the league in rushing defense. Talk about night and day. Can you take a wild guess at what they need to work on? That's right, they're defensive backs. More importantly, they need to build depth at the cornerback position, especially with Cedric Griffin able to play safety.

On the offensive side of the ball, assuming the front office is going to stick it out with Jackson as their starter (and they better) the weakness is clearly receiver. While Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice are definitely up and comers, Troy Williamson once again had a sub-par year and continued to have problems catching the ball consistently. The Vikings apparently got sick of waiting for him to realize he was a wide receiver and work on actually catching balls, so they traded him.

Ex-Chicago Bear Bernard Berrian was added in free agency and is coming off his best season yet. His 951 yards 5 TD’s last year was extremely impressive, especially considering who was throwing him the ball (See: Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton). While none of the Vikings main trio of wide receivers, Berrian, Wade and Rice have displayed premier number 1 receiver talent, they are all young and skilled and with time will only get better. Also, they will benefit from teams being petrified of Adrian Peterson and stacking the box to defend against him.


Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, while a solid blocker, isn’t the best receiving tight end in the league. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings draft a TE to eventually replace him, or stick with the current Shiancoe/Kleinsasser duo (which I think sucks).

Other notable free agent signings include: Michael Boulware, Madieu Williams, Derrick Pope and Ellis Wyms -- all of who will be fighting for starting jobs come that magical time of year known as NFL mini-camp.

With all of the success that Adrian Peterson had last year, it’s interesting to note that Chester Taylor very nearly rushed for 1,000 yards playing backup RB for the majority of the year. With Michael Turner now gone from San Diego, it could be said that the Vikings now have the best backup running back in the entire league. All signs point to them keeping him but it wouldn’t surprise many people if they dealt him before the draft or even during the season, especially with the recent signing of RB Maurice Hicks to a three year deal. As with many things, only time will tell, but you can get quite an impressive package if you trade him in Madden. It had to be said.

The Vikings have plenty of opportunities to fill some of their weaknesses during the upcoming NFL Draft. They have a total of nine selections, with one in every single round except for the third and sixth -- in which they have two picks. Nearly every single mock draft out there (including mine) has the Vikings taking Derrick Harvey at number 17. But as we all know about the NFL draft, things almost always go different from the way the experts pick them (See: Mel Kiper Jr). So don’t be surprised if the Vikings take someone else, or if Harvey is gone -- but do expect them to focus on the defense early and maybe select a wide receiver or tight end in the middle rounds. Here are some diamonds in the rough that the Vikings might select:

Wide Receiver Sleepers

Mario Manningham (Michigan) - Okay, I know he’s not a gem and it’s 80% likely the Vikings won’t even get the opportunity to select him in the second round but… I can dream, right?

Dexter Jackson (Appalachian St.) - He’s fast. Very, very fast.

Early Doucette (LSU) - A solid, well-rounded WR. Could put in time as a kick returner. Not to mention, he has the best first name in the draft.

Tight End Sleepers

Fred Davis (USC) - A great catching TE. Has been working on his blocking and he was a prime target in 2007 for Booty.

Craig Stevens (California) - Skilled as a receiving TE as well as a blocking TE. Could easily be the best in the draft class in a couple of years if he puts the work in.

With nine picks, even if the Vikings have a mediocre draft in terms of evaluating the talent, they should still be in a great spot. It just goes to show you, trading great players for draft picks several years away sometimes works out in the long run.

With Brett Favre’s retirement and the decline of the Bears last year, the time is now for the Vikings. If Tarvaris Jackson can keep improving, Adrian Peterson can stay away from injuries and the passing defense can improve, the Vikings have a very realistic shot at winning the rejuvenated NFC North.

Friday, April 11, 2008

State of the Franchise: The Detroit Lions

During the 2007 pre-season, Jon Kitna predicted that the Lions would win more than 10 games that season. Within a few hours, the story was everywhere and nearly everyone thought he was nuts. Sure, it was a ballsy thing to do… but did he have a concussion or something? Perhaps the most surprising thing was that when asked how many wins the Lions would have in 2007 on a Detroit radio program, he didn’t even predict they’d win 10 games (which was an astronomical stretch in itself) instead, stating the following:

“I’ll keep to myself what I think we actually will win. But it’s more than 10 games.”

That’s right. Not nine wins, not even ten wins -- more than 10. That’s a minimum of eleven wins from a team who had the second most losses in 2006 (thirteen to be exact). Not to mention, they had a month prior, yet again taken a wide receiver in the first round -- making some think that Matt Millen, the Lions GM, was just pulling an elaborate, warped joke on the entire state of Michigan and that he could give two shits about actually fielding a well rounded football team.

Suffice it to say, not many people were taking Jon Kitna too seriously. In fact, many people were appalled and even a bit pissed that he would make such a bold prediction. In particular pessimistic media fashion, he was labeled an arrogant braggart -- with no way near the skill to back it up.


A hundred or so days later however, the Lions were 6-2 at the conclusion of Week 9. While some of the teams they had beaten weren’t in upper class of the league, if you will -- they still had two solid wins against the Broncos and Buccaneers. Going into Week 10, the Lions performance was so surprising and it’s bandwagon so packed that it made some people feel as if they were in the Outer Limits. At least I did.

As we all know, the Lions dropped 7 of their next 8 and finished the season 7-9, four wins short of the minimum amount Kitna predicted. Just as quickly as people had jumped on the bandwagon, they again turned on Kitna -- calling him a fool and blaming him of talking the talk but unable to walk the walk.

But while I agree that Kitna’s whole prediction did nothing to improve his reputation, you have to admit -- it was a ballsy thing to do. If I was running an NFL team whose roster was filled with underachievers and first round rookie busts -- why wouldn’t I want my new QB to look around and say ‘Yeah, we can win 8 more games than last year.’ What’s wrong with that? In fact, it’s not wrong at all -- it’s exactly the type of attitude a QB should have.



Going public with the prediction wasn’t the smartest idea, but what was he supposed to say?

“Mr. Kitna how many games will the Lions win in 2007?”

“Ehh, I dunno. We’ll be lucky to crack six -- but hey, you never know!”

He’d be stoned in the street! His whole attitude towards the 2007 season was exactly what we admire in our athletes, yet he was ridiculed because his supporting cast was less than stellar. But I say good on him, because I have a feeling he’ll be twice as focused to make his prediction ring true in his second season in Detroit.

The Lions for the first time in years, made several high profile moves in free agency. The Lions released Kevin Jones, their 2004 1st round draft pick who while often showing flashes of brilliance, had his five years in Detroit riddled with injuries. Meanwhile T.J. Duckett jetted so fast to Seattle, many people wondered why he failed to move that fast on the football field.

This leaves Tatum Bell as the big man in the Little D backfield. Although he didn’t play too much last year, he had an impressive few years in Denver. But it remains to be seen, like many running backs thrust into a starter role, if he can handle the bulk of careers for an entire NFL season.

Shaun Rogers, who failed to live up to hefty expectations in his seven years in Detroit was traded to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for defensive back Leigh Bodden. Bodden, who spent all five years of his career thus far in Cleveland blossomed last year -- causing Chad Johnson to claim he was the best corner he faced all of last year.



Many people criticized the Lions for taking Calvin Johnson number 2 overall in the 2007 Draft, however he lived up to expectations (unlike the other three top ten wide receivers they’ve taken in the past five years) and perhaps even exceeded them. With his rookie season under his belt he and Roy Williams should be a lot more comfortable with Jon Kitna in their second year together.

The defense, which left much to be desired like many other losing teams last year, did hold host to another blossoming star: Ernie Sims. In his rookie year with the Lions, Sims just missed out on a Pro Bowl bid and looks to solidify the Lions weak side linebacker spot for many years to come.

With the 15th pick in this year’s draft, it’s up in the air where the Lions will choose to go -- but it’s looking very likely they will build depth on defense. However, taking Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall to share a committee with Tatum Bell might be a wise choice as well. With eight picks to utilize for the entire draft and a very deep and strong defensive pool of players that should be available in the mid to late rounds, taking a RB to spell with Bell if one falls to them at number 15 just might be the best course of action. Jonathan Stewart, being hailed by some fanatics as the best RB in the entire draft (even better than Darren McFadden apparently) would also be a great fit in the Lions offense.

For reasons unbeknownst to anyone, the Lions released offensive coordinator Mike Martz, generally regarded as a key reason the Lions offense was explosive last year. He was used as a scapegoat for the second half collapse, and his release might just come back to haunt the Lions front office.

It’s coming up on the year anniversary of Jon Kitna’s infamous more than ten game prediction and it’s a smart bet to assume he just might make another prediction. With a little luck in the draft, and solid years from it’s free agent pick ups, don’t be surprised if his prediction comes true this year.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

State of the Franchise: The Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns came out of nowhere in 2007.

That’s it. That is the only way to describe their 2007 season. I don’t care where you're from (with Cleveland excluded of course), you did not predict they would be as good as they were. Sure, their defense had it’s moments … but compared to the abysmal 2006 campaign, it wasn’t half bad.

It’s impossible to talk about the Browns and not talk about their QB situation. Brady Quinn was set up to be the QB of the future after he was drafted 22nd overall (and consequently shot 10 times after every first round pick by ESPN during the draft). Charlie Frye solidified this idea in his horrific Week 1 performance. However, Week 2 was still too early to throw the Notre Dame rookie into NFL action. At least according to Romeo Crennel, and I absolutely agree with him.

To go on a tangent, I would like to express my fondness for Romeo Crennel. Yes, being a Patriots fan I’d come to love him more than most -- but you have to respect someone who in the face of being fired led his team to a performance that can only be described as… well, very well coached. Don't even start about the defense, nobody could have turned that squad into a respectable unit. Sure, the Browns had some breakout stars surface in 2008 (See: Derek Anderson) but one thing is for certain... we can finally come to a conclusion on one thing: Romeo Crennel is a fantastic football coach.

Romeo Crennel did the impossible with the 2007 Browns: He made them a contender


It’s a topic for another day and another article, but sometimes great coaches are put in impossible situations (See: Bill Belichick in Cleveland, Steve Spurrier in Washington, and dare I say Bobby Petrino in Atlanta? [Just kidding, he was just a quitter]) and we are entirely too quick to judge on their merits as a coach. I don’t care if Vince Lombardi was the coach of the 2007 Miami Dolphins, they weren’t getting anywhere near the post season.

Derek Anderson started Week 2 against the Bengals and never looked back. Although it’s interesting that starting Week 14, when the Browns needed him most in order to make the playoffs -- he couldn’t keep up his standard play. Was it that defensive coordinators finally had enough film to counter him? Or was it that he just crumbled under the pressure of leading an NFL franchise, one that had been the laughing stock of the NFL just a year earlier, to a playoff berth? The answer to that question won’t really be answered until 2008 but I for one believe that the whole thing put the Browns in an impossible situation (at least in regards to the mass media).

Do you no re-sign Anderson, have him to go on and continue his success and once again return the Browns to the lower class of the NFL? What if Brady Quinn turned out to be a bust? Would Cleveland ever recover?

Or do you sign Anderson, hope he continues his breakout performance from last year and hope Cleveland fans aren’t calling for his head and cheering for Quinn to start mid season? Isn't that a coaches nightmare? A QB controversy in a situation like this?

No matter what will turn out to be the correct choice, (the Browns chose the latter) I’m sure many NFL teams would kill for a proven QB such as Anderson and a potential superstar such as Quinn to both grace their depth chart come pre-season, so there's no need to focus on that as a potential fault, really.

Every team has an Achilles heel and the weakness for the 2007 Browns was easily their defense. During the first half of the year, the Browns let up a horrific 30 points per game. During the last half they at least got it down to league standard, letting up a respectable 24 points per game.


Unfortunately, the off season saw the departure of Leigh Bodden, a promising young corner who signed with the Detroit Lions. The off-season was not wrought with disappointment however. WR Donte Stallworth, DT’s Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams both signed with the new-look Browns.

Will Shaun Rogers continue to underachieve in Cleveland?


RB Jamal Lewis, who had a resurgence of sorts in 2007 isn’t getting any younger (he’s fast approaching the magical RB age of 30) however he still provides a capable running back in what is largely a passing offense. With not many picks in the 2008 NFL draft, the Browns will likely have to wait until next year for their heir apparent in the backfield. Jason Wright will be left to spell Lewis and although he doesn’t have breathtaking speed, he is a suitable compliment to Lewis’ power.

With no picks until the fourth round, the Browns are obviously hoping the free agents they signed will be worth basically their entire 2008 draft. Under achiever Shaun Rogers takes nothing off the table in terms of the Browns defense and should improve it greatly. Donte Stallworth will prove an excellent compliment to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow in what could prove to be the best WR1-WR2-TE1 trio in the league. Edwards and Winslow should continue right where they left off in 2007, and establish themselves as elite players at their respective positions.

If the Browns’ secondary can limit game changing mistakes and Jamal Lewis can continue his steady, powerful play, the Browns should get what they just missed out on in 2007. A playoff bid.

Friday, April 4, 2008

State of the Franchise: The New Orleans Saints

While I acknowledge that there is a time period that exists where it is too early to talk football, I believe we have passed it. As long as you stand on the precipice of the NFL Draft and refrain from talking too much about Week 10 match ups and other things that just need to wait, than your fine.

So without further ado: Let’s talk football. More importantly, let’s talk about the Saints.

After an impressive season that culminated in a trip to the NFC championship in 2006, the Saints failed to even make the playoffs in 2007. Suffice it to say, Saints fans were none too pleased. Although the offense was one of the league’s best, finishing the season ranked 4th overall in the NFL, an injury to Deuce McAllister and a weak (and that’s being kind) sophomore season for Reggie Bush ensured the Saints offense could never quite keep up with it’s horrid defense.

Drew Brees however, had a fantastic season -- more or less carrying the offense on his back (or should I say... shoulder) in route to a 4400 yard, 28 TD effort. He finished the season with an 89.4 in what might just have been his finest season to date considering the lack of a running game he had behind him.

While the defense sure had it’s moments, and isn’t anywhere close to being the weakest unit in the league, it was clearly their Achilles heel for the year. The offense would often put up a respectable amount of points while the defense would one up them and let up even more (See: Week 10, 13 and 16).

The Saints front office has hoped to remedy this problem with the signing of Randall Gay, Dan Morgan and Bobby McCray. It’s also pretty much a certainty that the Saints will break the three year trend of taking an offensive player in the first round and that they are looking to add some young talent to their struggling defensive unit. With the 10th pick in each of the seven rounds, they should have ample opportunity to do so.

The next question that is posed when looking at the Saints is which part of the defense is in desperate need of tuning up first. This question is easily answered by taking a look at the defensive stats from last year: The Saints finished 13th in the league in rush defense, whereas they almost came in last place in regards to pass defense -- finishing a pathetic third to last place.

Thankfully for the Saints, there is an impressive array of cornerbacks that will most likely be available to them with the 10th pick. Assuming that the Patriots are the only team in the top 10 that are a threat to pick one of the CB’s, the Saints should get their pick out of two of the top three. They are (in no particular order) Leodis Mckelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Aqib Talib.



Some are saying the Saints could take Keith Rivers if he falls to them here (and he most likely will) and it will probably come down to the scouting department. Whoever they feel will make the biggest impact for them on defense, they will take -- and they can’t really go wrong since all of the previous four players could be an enormous asset to the unit assuming they don’t turn out to be a bust.

For the sake of being on the record, I think the Saints take Cromartie at number ten -- but I can most definitely (and probably will be) wrong.

If the off season sculpting can give the defense even a minor boost from last year, the offense still has the same potential as last year. If Deuce McAllister can stay healthy and Reggie Bush can improve upon his field vision, it won’t matter that the receiving corps isn’t particularly strong -- Drew Brees could throw to imaginary receivers and he’d still probably get at least 200 yards.

As long as the Saints can stay away from some injuries to key players and have a solid draft, I don’t see any reason the Saints won’t be marching right back into the playoffs in 2008.

(Next up: The Cleveland Browns)

Thursday, April 3, 2008

State of the Franchise: The Oakland Raiders

While I acknowledge that there is a time period that exists where it is too early to talk football, I believe we have passed it. As long as you stand on the precipice of the NFL Draft and refrain from talking too much about Week 10 match ups and other things that just need to wait, than your fine.

So without further ado: Let's talk football. More specifically, let's talk about the Oakland Raiders.

The Oakland Raiders were a consistent passing attack and a few defensive players short of making a strong playoff run in 2007. As the franchise looks towards the 2008 season, it has been successfully plugging away at it’s weaknesses from the past couple of years. DeAngelo Hall gives them a dynamic defensive back they‘ve been missing out on. Javon Walker gives them a legit receiver threat they‘ve sorely needed. JaMarcus Russell gives them hope at the QB position, and a high first round draft pick gives them a shot to make things right.

Write it down: The Oakland Raiders will become the trendy sleeper pick of the upcoming NFL season.

Although there has been much expressed concern over JaMarcus Russell’s weight push towards 3 bills, he is still a prime talent. We didn’t get to see much of him last year and it remains to be seen how he’ll react to becoming the starting NFL quarterback for a storied franchise -- but if his growing pains are the Raiders’ biggest worry next season, they’ve come a long way.

After taking over for an injured Lamont Jordan early in the season, Justin Fargas never looked back. 1,009 rushing yards and 4 touchdown’s later he sealed the deal as the 2008 starting running back. That deal was further sealed when Oakland offered the up and coming back a 3 year, $12 million contract early in the off season. Because of this, don’t expect the Raiders to take McFadden with their first round draft choice -- although, I wouldn’t put it past them either.

The Raiders defense took a step back in 2007, at least in regards to it’s 2006 showing. The 2006 unit, known primarily for it’s strong play in wake of an anemic offensive performance showed a lot of promise for the future. Although they showed flashes of greatness last year, they weren’t nearly as strong as the previous year -- finishing the year ranked 25th in total defense.

The addition of DeAngelo Hall, and a number of offensive weapons should give the Raiders defense a boost and hopefully keep it off the field for the majority of the game. Will everything that they’ve done in the off season come together and result in a winning season? The answer to this question and many other’s relies in the 2008 NFL Draft.

With the fourth pick in this year’s draft the Raiders have a plethora of suggestions to improve either the offensive or defensive side of the ball. Unless they pull a fast one and take Darren McFadden, which honestly wouldn’t be very surprising at all, than it is safe to assume a defensive player will be taken. But who will fall to them at pick number four?

It seems one day people are convinced the Dolphins will take Matt Ryan at number one, other days it’s Jake Long and still other days it’s Chris Long. Since it’s anyone’s guess who they’ll actually take and then who the Rams and Falcons will take in turn -- let’s take a look at the top 5 available players.

Some may disagree but I believe they are Jake Long, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden (with Glenn Dorsey coming in an extreeeeeemely close sixth). Now, there is no way the Raiders are going to take Matt Ryan, so he is out. Darren McFadden is the wild card of the bunch, since the Raiders already have a great RB in Justin Fargas (or at least it appears so). Count me a part of the group of people who’s a bit skeptical he will continue such a great performance all of next year. Not to mention, they still have Rhodes, Bush and Jordan on the depth chart. Although if I were Al Davis and McFadden fell to me at the fourth spot, I would take him in a heartbeat.

If the Raiders do what most people think they are going to do and pass on McFadden, that likely leaves them with Vernon Gholston. This is under the assumption that both Long’s will go in the top 3 and of course, no one takes Gholston over McFadden, Dorsey or Ryan.


As much as I believe I’d take McFadden, taking Gholston would be an incredibly smart move -- especially in regards to their team needs. With Warren Sapp’s retirement, the defensive line is in need of some more talent. A young, talented defensive end like Gholston could be a cornerstone of the Raider’s pass rush for year’s to come. It’s hard to pass up on such an opportunity.

It’s really anyone’s guess as to where the Raiders will steer their team’s ship come draft day -- but they’ve done an incredible job of filling their weaknesses with impact players and have given Raider’s fans something they’ve been sorely needing since 2001:

Hope.

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