Wednesday, September 3, 2008
NFL Powerless Rankings - September 3rd, 2008
By Josh GalliganAfter some low to mild success with my MLB Powerless Rankings, I felt it was only right to spread the nearly non-existent buzz to the wondrous NFL world we all know and love. If you’ve never read any types of Power Rankings then you’re either lying to yourself or you don’t know how to read. Since your reading this, we’ve just eliminated one half of those. Liar.
Any questions?
What are the Powerless Rankings?
The Powerless Rankings are a set of rankings that focus on the bottom five teams in the league at a given time (weekly). We pay so much attention to all the good teams -- ranking them and verbally commending them -- why should the bad teams be left out in the cold (besides that they’re horrible)?
Although it’s exciting at the beginning of the year because it tends to enflame fans of particular teams much more than during the mid-season mark, the rankings will eventually feature a top 5 as well. So they’ll start out strictly powerless but end up getting pretty powerful. Don’t worry though; I’ve heard that they end up coexisting together quite nicely from the three people who’ve read the MLB version.
How do I know if the Powerless Rankings are for me?
If you’re easily enraged and/or lack the ability to admit that your hometown team may not be stacked at every position, I suggest you turn away. Just pretend this article was about hamsters or something. What are you reading this for? You don’t even like hamsters! Go away!
Other than that, I don’t think there’s anything else that needs explaining. The rankings start at 28th and move down to 32nd in what is a warped, sorry excuse to try and build some suspense. The “winner” is basically the “loser”. It’s really quite ironic.
Do you realize that you’re essentially asking yourself questions?
Yes, yes I do. But hey, being on house arrest in the interests of being a good father and being at home with my daughter (while the other half works the overnights) does have its benefits! I have so much time on my hands that not only can I ask myself questions, but I can also pound out random articles that randomly appear in my head.
Will you please shut up and get on with this already?
Yes. My fault...
NFL Powerless Rankings – September 3rd
28. Miami Dolphins
Sure, the Dolphins team as a whole has improved since last year’s one-win pathetic fest, but not that much. In fact, they no longer have Jason Taylor who (in addition to salsa dancing) was a pretty big part of their defense for last very long time. Wait a second, aren’t Jason Taylor’s replacements Vonnie Holliday and Kendall Langford? Uh, yeah, that’s a bit of a downgrade I would say.
Joey Porter is also reportedly overreacting to minor injuries as if they are career threatening in nature, which sounds suspiciously to me like someone isn’t too high on playing on a rebuilding team again this year. As much as I’ll admit that the offensive unit has some rising young stars on it, the defense, at least for this year, aren’t going to be accomplishing too much outside of establishing a new identity.
Stock: Rising
29. San Francisco 49ers
As highly as you hold Mike Martz, you still have to know that even he can’t do the impossible. A lot of people are of the belief that he’s going to radically transform the offense into a well-oiled, Rams team of yore-esque, machine. Don’t get me wrong, the offense is going to get better. But they also don’t have anywhere else to go but up.
Barring J.T. O’Sullivan bursting upon the scene in something akin to the Brady/Romo, ‘What’s this guy’s name again?’ mold, the 49ers will only go as far as Frank Gore and the defense can take them.
Stock: At rest
30. Baltimore Ravens
Many people questioned the Ravens early decision to delay the start of the Joey Flacco era, mainly because of the other two options they were considering as starters (Kyle Boller and Troy Smith). In what was a refreshing surprise, the Ravens eventually ended up naming Flacco the starter, which was something their fans had been demanding since he’d been drafted. Although to be fair, they probably only did so because of blatant, recorded evidence contrary to that of their original decision. A smart move if I’ve ever seen one.
The primary staple of team, the defense, isn’t getting any younger, while the offense, which was usually the brunt of the team jokes, is on the rise. It’s a rebuilding year for sure, but at least the rebuilding appears to be going in a productive and sensible direction.
Stock: Dropping
31. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs shored up their team with some solid NFL Draft selections this past April. But unfortunately, they still have major questions at arguably the two most important parts of a football team --Quarterback and the offensive line. As talented as Larry Johnson is, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to carry the offense all by himself.
Until they prove to the contrary (a contrary that is a safe bet not to be proven Sunday), here the Chiefs will stay. Like the 49ers, if the Chiefs do manage to prove me otherwise, you can rest assured I will make fun of myself in the very next installation.
Stock: At rest
And the “winner” is…
32. Atlanta Falcons
Unlike the Ravens, the Falcons decided early on to throw rookie QB Matt Ryan into the starting fire this season. This probably had a lot to do with the fact that they had signed Ryan to a contract that was comparable to the gross income of a small country – but still. That’s neither here nor there. At least they decided what they wanted and they decided it early.
The 2008 Falcons could very well become the staple comparison for a team that is going through a ‘rebuilding year’.
All is not bad, at least on offense. Michael Turner could prove to be a solid starting RB and Roddy White looks to be a top-tier WR. However, clutching at straws isn’t going to get the Falcons any wins, so expect them to make a comfortable living down here in the basement.
Stock: Comfortably at rest
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs
Now I’m not saying Chad Pennington is going to have some type of comeback year for the ages or anything, but I am saying he’s a perfectly capable QB that was the answer to the receiving corps prayers. Think about it. One of the following QB’s was currently slated to be slinging balls for the offense, and likely to the wrong team. Complete with career stats:
Josh McCown: 609 for 1052 (57.9%), 6582 yards, 35 TD’s, 40 INT’s. He is entering his seventh NFL season.
John Beck: 60 for 107 (56.1%), 559 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT’s. He is entering his second NFL season.
Chad Henne: Has not yet started an NFL game and would have to go through the necessary growing pains expected of rookie QB’s.
Could one of those players ended up having a good 2008? Absolutely. Would you want to put any type of money on that? I doubt it. Now, let’s take a look at the QB the world forgot about, Chad Pennington:
Chad Pennington: 1259 for 1919 (65.6%), 13738 yards, 82 TD’s, 55 INT’s. He is entering his ninth NFL season.
Uh, yeah. I’ll take Pennington, thanks.
Anyway, with that obvious but necessary piece out of the way, let’s take a look at Jerricho Cotchery’s stats the year he played a bit part on offense and wasn’t on the field too much.
Jerricho Cotchery
(2005): 19 receptions, 251 yards, 0 TD’s (12 games played, 1 game started)
Now, we know that Pennington was on the team in 2005, but Cotchery wasn’t given enough playing time to benefit from that. He was also still learning the intricacies of the WR position, with it being only his second year in the league and his first with some good, solid playing time. Let’s take a look at Ted Ginn Juniors stats in his first year in the league:
Ted Ginn Jr.
(2007): 34 receptions, 420 yards, 2 TD’s (16 games played, 9 games started)
It’s easy to see that Ginn had much more of a role in his rookie year than Cotchery had in his first two years in the NFL combined. Because of this, Ginn is likely well-entrenched in the verses of the WR position. Now let’s take a look at Cotchery’s first year with a starting role in the offense, one that formally introduced him to Chad Pennington.
Jerricho Cotchery
(2006): 82 receptions, 961 yards, 6 TD’s (16 games started)
Not bad. A lot of that can be attributed to Cotchery’s talent but couldn’t some of it also be placed on Pennington? Cotchery was targeted 125 times in 2006 and the ball managed to find itself safely in his hands 82 of those times. Pennington may be knocked for his lack of any kind of powerful arm, but the man is accurate. He’s completed nearly two thirds of his throws his entire career. All in all, I think it’s safe to assume that he’s a quality QB.
With Cotchery barely able to build a rapport with Pennington in 2005 due to the small amount of playing time, the two essentially built a connection throughout the 2006 season itself. Cotchery was also the second option for Pennington, with Laveranues Coles easily claiming the title of both WR1 and the QB’s favorite receiver.
Jumping back to the present, Ginn is the clear cut WR1 on a Dolphins offense that’s looking to begin moving forward after some serious off-season patch-up work. What does that mean? It means that Ginn will likely benefit from not only more targets (he had 71 last year), but also from a competent QB who can consistently throw the ball in his general vicinity.
Is it that much of a stretch to think that Ginn could put up similar numbers to what Cotchery churned out in 2006? No. It’s definitely not. The stretch would lie in how much better you think Ginn could do. Cotchery was targeted 125 times as the WR2 but also benefited from having a superb receiver lining up opposite of him in Laveranues Coles. Ginn saw 71 targets last year as a rookie and it was a year in which he didn’t get much playing time until Chris Chambers left before Week 7.
I would say that 125 targets for Ginn is a basement estimate. With reports that Ronnie Brown may have to start the season at a snails pace thanks to his finger injury, the Dolphins are sure to lean on Pennington until Brown returns. No offense to Ricky Williams since I’m sure he’ll contribute somewhat, but I want to see how he looks during an actual game that means something. The guy is 31 years old and not counting last years disappointing six attempt season, hasn’t played a substantial amount of time in the NFL in what’s now approaching three years. If thinking the Dolphins are going to pass a lot makes me crazy then so be it. I don’t want to be sane.
In the interests of being realistic and not allowing the predictions to get out of hand, I say it’s safe to pencil in Ginn for at least 130 targets. Please note the ‘at least’ part of that statement. Out of the 130 balls thrown to him, say 10 get called back by penalties or are nullified for whatever reason. Chad Pennington’s career completion percentage is 65.6% but we’ll give age and a change in living situation the benefit of the doubt here and say he’ll complete 60% of his passes this year. That’s probably the bare minimum. Add in a quick entrance from our friend the calculator and that leaves us with the following projection:
2008 Projection
Ted Ginn Jr: 130 targets, 72 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD’s
And that is being GENEROUS with the negative outside factors. Barring some type of major injuries to Ginn himself, Pennington or the offensive line, that stat line could very easily be achieved by Ginn unless he’s managed to lose his football talent somehow during the off-season.
Aaaand... scene!
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
State of the Franchise: The Miami Dolphins
When a team goes 1-15 in a season, besides from being a mortal lock for the number one overall pick in the upcoming draft, they don’t have much going for them. The chemistry can’t be good after so many losses and even if the team is successful in filling it’s many weaknesses, it’s still very unlikely they’ll approach .500 the next year. In essence, if you’re a Dolphins fan, don’t bank on a playoff bid in 2008, barring an absolute miracle season for the ages. Sorry. With that said, the good news is that the Dolphins have just the man in place for the massive rebuilding project: Bill Parcells. Say what you want about the man (and many people have) but he does have skill in turning teams from worst to first. Or at least worst to almost first. Sure, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1990 (I was... four) -- but he’s had some successful rebuilding projects in his coaching career and he is to thank for much of the Cowboys recent stature as a league powerhouse. Here’s a list of the teams Parcells has taken over, their record the year prior to him taking over, followed by their records the three years after he became 'the boss'.
New York Giants
1982 (Perkins): 4-5
1983 (Parcells): 3-12-1
1984 (Parcells): 9-7 (made playoffs)
1985 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
New England Patriots
1992 (MacPherson): 2-14
1993 (Parcells): 5-11
1994 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
1995 (Parcells): 6-10
New York Jets
1996 (Kotite): 1-15
1997 (Parcells): 9-7
1998 (Parcells): 12-4 (made playoffs)
1999 (Parcells): 8-8
Dallas Cowboys
2002 (Campo): 5-11
2003 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
2004 (Parcells): 6-10
2005 (Parcells): 9-7
The conclusion we can draw from this data? Disregarding playoff appearances (although he made the postseason at least once with each team he took over within two years) it is safe to say that Bill Parcells taking over horrible teams has a dramatic effect. None of them won Super Bowls, save for his Giants days -- but the teams had drastic turnarounds thanks to his coaching and personnel decisions.
Whether or not the Dolphins will stay with John Beck as their future QB remains to be seen. He didn’t look good in his five games last season, but I’m going to continue to practice what I preach and say the Dolphins need to wait a bit before they decide if he’s not for them. Still, though, if Beck plays like he did last year the Dolphins QB situation is dire. Trent Green was serviceable last year until his career was ended by another concussion.
Josh McCown was brought in in the off season and looks to the leader for the starting job going into the 2008 season. Again, the Dolphins QB situation is dire.
A bright spot on the Dolphins (and my fantasy team) for next year is Ronnie Brown. Before going down with an injury in Week 7, Brown was tearing it up, rushing for 602 yards on 119 attempts and 4 TD’s. Had he not gotten injured, the Dolphins very well could have won 3-4 games, something that more or less would have meant absolutely nothing, other than possibly dropping them out of the first overall selection.
Chris Chambers was traded to the Chargers in mid-season last year for a second round pick, leaving Ted Ginn Jr. as the team’s projected number one receiver in 2008. Ginn is regarded as one of the biggest busts of the 2007 draft. Did I say the Dolphins QB situation was dire? I meant the majority of the team.
Luckily for the Dolphins, they have a total of nine selections in the 2008 NFL Draft. These include the number one overall selection, two picks in rounds two, six and seven and one pick in round three. While Parcells draft history isn’t the best in the league, he’s still a good judge of talent and any type of talent will help this team.
The number one selection has been the subject of much controversy over the last couple of months. Some have said the Dolphins will take Glenn Dorsey, then it was Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan -- and some have said they would trade out of it. I subscribe to the belief that they will take Chris Long because he just seems like a right fit for a Parcells run team. But even if they take Jake Long, they’re still getting a great player -- they can’t really go wrong either way. As we learned from the 2006 draft, anything can happen with the first pick (See: Mario Williams over Reggie Bush). So it will be interesting to see if the Dolphins do what everyone thinks they're going to do and take a sure thing, or take a gamble and select someone that their scouting department thinks is the best player available at number one. Vernon Gholston anyone?
Rumor has it that defensive end Jason Taylor wants out of Miami and Parcells sure as hell won’t keep him around if he has too. Don’t be surprised if Taylor is involved in a draft day trade, especially considering his appearance on Dancing with the Stars. I'm sure the Tuna was pissed about that one.
The Dolphins defensive unit, who was once regarded one of the best in the league, finished 23rd overall last year. The passing defense was actually quite good, finishing 4th, while the rushing defense lived up to the offenses horrendous performances and finished last in the league. This is a major reason why I think the Dolphins will take Chris Long over Jake Long -- it would just make sense due to their weaknesses. Again, Gholston anyone?
Another desperate need for the Dolphins was wide receiver and they attempted to remedy this with the signing of Earnest Wilford. He’s nothing special, but anything will help the receiving corps at this point and Wilford is definitely not a liability. He’ll just need a decent QB to throw him the ball, that’s all.
After last year’s 1-15 finish, it’s a perfect time to bust out the saying: ‘Things can’t really get any worse.’ That at least hinges on the Dolphins not finishing 0-16 next season and honestly, that’s not going to happen. Really though, things can’t get any worse. No one is really expecting a 9-7 or 10-6 season from this team next year and if it happens, hey, all the power to them and all the Cinderella excitement for us. But hopefully, Dolphins fans realize that this is a rebuilding process and unfortunately the upcoming year is the bridge to eventual success.
But look on the bright side: The Dolphins have nine picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. It’s a certainty that many of those rookies will provide bright spots next year and perhaps show a preview of what’s to come. Some have said that the 2007 Dolphins were one of the worst teams to have ever played in the NFL and one could definitely make the case for this. But at least they have the tools and now with Parcells in the front office, the personnel to get this historic franchise on the right track and back to it’s winning ways.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Miami Dolphins Year in Review
It was an eventful year for the Miami Dolphins, albeit a year that did not include much wins (one to be exact). Although next year does show some promise after the hiring of Bill Parcells as the ‘executive VP of football operations’ coupled with the first pick in the NFL Draft.
elderly promising defense, Dolphins fans were excited for the upcoming season.
Dolphins 2007 Team Leaders
