SportsCrack

The RB Odometer: High Career Carry Red Flags

The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old. It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three-decades-old RB is even mentioned.




It’s always struck me as odd. There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s decline. I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29 year old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is 30 years old so much different?

Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RB’s? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement? At first, I didn’t even consider using the Top 10 in career carries since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper-echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings. Then I realized that they were indeed, still human – and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were. So until we find out John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.

To give a brief, step-by-step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the Top 200 RB’s for total career carries. A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit. I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.

I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year). I then added everything together for the remaining list but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a road block of a problem?

The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.

Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still. The top group consisted of RB’s who had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group were those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.

Next, I went through player by player and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year which would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.

Next, I calculated the amount of carries the given players had at that point. If you haven’t noticed by now, this whole system would be applied to RB’s BEFORE the season starts. It’s a yearly way of tagging red flags. You could do it mid-season, but by then it wouldn’t be of much use.

Now before I give the estimates and incur the wrath from those who have RB’s with approaching limits on their fantasy rosters, let me just spell out how this could potentially be used. The bottom half amount could be applied to everyone approaching the number of carries but with the realization that many have surpassed the limit and went on to have longer and even more consistent careers. So the bottom half red flag amount isn’t really an end all be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags – more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least its better then, “Uh, he’s thirty. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s thirty!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyway, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average ‘educated doubt’ for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries:

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

- Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
- Larry Johnson is speeding full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark with little to no regard for anyone or thing in his way.
- Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
- Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries:

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

- Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
- LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2350+ carries.
- Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
- How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.

Target Practice: TD's and Yardage Points Per Target

I’m not going to try and hard sell you on why targets are important, don’t worry. If you are doubtful that they can be helpful, or you just don't know what they are exactly, then you can read my previous article right here. I brought up some concerns in the previous version about how the fantasy points per target statistic may have been to general. Those concerns, when looked at closer, did turn out to be quite warranted. So the only other thing to do was start all over but this time with a more specific set of statistics. That also included breaking everything down by year instead of just the totals.

Those specific statistics are touchdowns per target and yardage points per target. Touchdowns per target (or TDs/Tg as it will now be known) are pretty self-explanatory. It’s the amount of TD’s a given player scores for every target they receive.

The other statistic is yardage points per target (YPts/Tg), which is the amount of fantasy points a player accrues with touchdowns (6 points per TD) subtracted. For instance, if Johnny Rocket had 100 fantasy points in 2007 and 6 TD’s, his yardage points for the year would be 64. This isn’t rocket science, people.

To start off, I broke the target stats up by year (since 2002) with the help of the Game Log Dominator. I wanted to get a good gauge of the fluctuations between YPts/Tg and TDs/Tg each year. The only cap for inclusion in each category was a minimum of 40 total targets for the season. Before we get into the analysis, here’s a nice picture of the spreadsheet for your viewing pleasure (you need to click the link as it wouldn't fit in here):

Click here for the spreadsheet picture

Assuming that you don’t have 100/20 vision and couldn’t read that spreadsheet for detail, allow me to break it down for you, as well as suggest that you perhaps see an eye doctor. And thank you, I know I have the ill Excel spreadsheet skills. But anyway, let's begin.

Here’s a breakdown for the amount of players in each year’s list that were NOT on it the year prior:

Yardage points per target
2002-2003: 18 players
2003-2004: 12 players
2004-2005: 12 players
2005-2006: 10 players
2006-2007: 17 players

Touchdowns per target
2002-2003: 17 players
2003-2004: 13 players
2004-2005: 13 players
2005-2006: 12 players
2006-2007: 14 players

I don’t think you need to be a math whiz to come to the conclusion that there’s a lot of WR’s that break into each stats Top 20 list every year. It can likely be attributed to many things. One, the WR position is the most difficult to consistently put up big numbers. This is due to a variety of factors, including but not limited to: Different QB’s, other WR’s, rookies, contract years, pure laziness, and age. Two, the WR corps on most teams can often be wide open and vary drastically from year to year. Unlike the QB and RB positions, where the starter only needs to worry about 1 or 2 possible replacements, WR’s need to worry about 3 or 4. Studs aside, it’s a very hard position to solidify a guaranteed position in. Especially in the financial landscape the NFL is experiencing right now.

You also may have noticed that both stats have relatively similar changes each year. The TDs/Tg list tends to have more veterans and solid journeyman grace its rankings whereas YPts/Tg is a haven for young, talented WR’s to break out into. The young player then matures and either makes the jump to the TD s/Tg list or finds he is talented enough to gain vaunted, both-list status. The cycle goes on and on. It makes sense, too. What kind of idiot would focus his red zone targets on a rookie unless he either a) Has hardly any quality receivers, or b) Has a Herman Moore in-his-prime-esque rookie talent? I’m not sure, but I know that I wouldn’t want him coaching my team.

On the recently broached topic of both-lists, though, let’s take a look at how many players found themselves onto both the TDs/Tg list and the YPts/Tg list each year:

Wide Receivers on both the TDs/Tg and YPts/Tg lists
2002: 8 players
2003: 12 players
2004: 11 players
2005: 12 players
2006: 13 players
2007: 11 players

Even some of the top WR’s who were consistently on at least one list each year managed to top more than 50% of their time in the league (since 2002) on both. Save for Reggie Wayne, who was on both lists every single year but one. Guy’s an absolute machine.

In the interests of putting what getting on these Top 20 lists means into perspective, here’s the average minimum stat lines by year:

YPts/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 80 targets, 93 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 76 targets, 81 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2004: 89 targets, 95 fantasy points, 830 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2005: 70 targets, 77 fantasy points, 710 receiving yards, 1 TD
2006: 70 targets, 87 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2007: 77 targets, 79 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 1 TD

TDs/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 70 targets, 71 fantasy points, 470 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 103 targets, 99 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2004: 87 targets, 93 fantasy points, 570 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2005: 109 targets, 110 fantasy points, 680 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2006: 84 targets, 86 fantasy points, 440 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2007: 71 targets, 93 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 5 TD’s

Aaaand the minimum averages combined over the last six years:

YPts/Tg ‘02-‘07 Top 20 minimum stats average: 77 targets, 85 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 2 TD’s

TDs/Tg ’02-’07 Top 20 minimum stats averages: 87 targets, 92 fantasy points, 560 receiving yards, 6 TD’s

What’s that? Those stat lines suck you say? Well, this whole thing isn’t meant for you to somehow find the next Terrell Owens or Randy Moss. It’s meant to give a statistical low point on what you should get if you target the players correctly. It’s the minimum. On average, 11 new players will be on each respective list at the end of next year. That’s 22 possible players to research who could potentially net you a decent amount of fantasy points. They may not be a stud, but they could be a blossoming one. They may not win you a title by themselves, but they could help you in a couple of key spot starts throughout the season that prove critical to your acquisition of the Hefty Aluminum Foil Champions Trophy. See where this is going?

Unlike in the last article, where I tried to Nostradamus every exact fill-in all by myself, let’s take a look at the players who have the potential or lack thereof to get on the lists next year. But first, let’s sum up what type of players will find themselves on either list (excluding the elite WR shoo-ins):

Yardage points per target list

- Often young, inexperienced or both (rookies).
- Usually quick, nimble receivers who are good at gaining yards after the catch.
- Not usually a target of the QB in the red zone.
- Very likely to be a WR2 or WR3.

Touchdown points per target list

- Often experienced veterans and/or solid journeyman wide outs.
- Usually big-bodied possession receivers.
- Often a target in the end zone, but sometimes not the top one.
- Could be a WR1 or WR2 because of their scoring ability and experience.

Now, taking those two lists, you can more easily target WR’s who will fall into one of the two categories. It makes it easier to go and see just how many people you think will fall out of the Top 20, especially since it fluctuates year to year. So it’s not always exactly 11 exclusions.

To get your brain going, here are the 2007 Top 20’s, the mortal locks to stay on them, some possible players who may fall of them and then followed by those who could possibly gain access into the ranks next year:

2007 Top 20 in Yardage Points per Target
1 Santonio Holmes
2 Greg Jennings
3 Joey Galloway
4 Andre Johnson
5 Reggie Wayne
6 Terrell Owens
7 Antwaan Randle El
8 Donte Stallworth
9 Randy Moss
10 Chad Johnson
11 Jerricho Cotchery
12 Calvin Johnson
13 David Patten
14 Brandon Stokley
15 Justin Gage
16 Roddy White
17 Anquan Boldin
18 Donald Driver
19 Patrick Crayton
20 Dennis Northcutt

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Reggie Wayne
Terrell Owens
Randy Moss
Santonio Holmes**

** Interesting note: The #1 ranked player on the YPts/Tg list failed to make the list the following year in every year but one. That was Lee Evans in 2004-2005 and he finished 20th the following year (barely). What am I getting at? Well, just that he may not be a ‘mortal’ lock, but since he’s on my fantasy team I’ll throw him on there.

Possible Dropouts:
Antwaan Randle El
Justin Gage
Dennis Northcutt
Joey Galloway

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Desean Jackson
Lee Evans
Reggie Brown
James Jones
Ted Ginn Jr.
Sidney Rice

2007 Top 20 in Touchdowns per Target
1 Randy Moss
2 Greg Jennings
3 Terrell Owens
4 Braylon Edwards
5 Nate Burleson
6 Santonio Holmes
7 Andre Johnson
8 Anquan Boldin
9 Patrick Crayton
10 Plaxico Burress
11 Marques Colston
12 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
13 Brandon Stokley
14 Laveranues Coles
15 Reggie Wayne
16 Hines Ward
17 Joey Galloway
18 Larry Fitzgerald
19 Jerry Porter
20 Wes Welker

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Santonio Holmes
Plaxico Burress
Braylon Edwards
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald

Possible Dropouts:
Brandon Stokley
Hines Ward
Jerry Porter

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Roddy White
Jerricho Cotchery
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Santana Moss
Limas Sweed

The assignment my class, is to pick the 9-10 players that you think will absolutely stay on the list next year. Then, take a look at the following list and pick the difference from 20 as to who you think will break onto the list next year. And one rookie has made the YPts/Tg list in each of the last 3 years, so take that into account if you wish. Have fun and feel free to leave your findings in the replies.

Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs

Target Practice: Fantasy Points Per Target - Part 1

While researching further into the target information I had acquired with The Football Guys, Game Log Dominator (best thing since the forward pass I tell ya -- thank you Doug Drinen!), a light bulb went off in my head. Most of the information, while sure to be interesting and fun to read, wouldn’t be very beneficial to the common fantasy owner. The hardcore, statistic-loving kind? Absolutely. The average, make-that-simple-please kind? Not so much.

Keeping in mind that the majority of drafts would be taking place within the next week or so, I began to Scooby-Doo the pages of target statistics in hopes of uncovering some valuable nuggets for those who had yet to field a team(s).

Since I’ve decided it would be best to just keep this write-up strictly on the Forums and website and not throughout the vast internet-verse, you’ll likely be the only person at your draft with the following information. Especially since my website only gets on average, 2 unique visitors per day and even then, most of the time those people are only concerned with selling me percocet and toasters with broken English. So you should be good if your league-mates don’t frequent the Shark Pool.

Now that I’ve gotten your hopes up, I’m going to shoot them back down. Sorry. This whole thing isn’t going to win you your league title (although this will) all by itself. However, I am a strong subscriber to the belief that the more information you soak in, acquire and have with you at the draft, the better your chance of acing it. That especially applies to the obscure, not-set-in-stone stats that aren’t too popular or common.

It’s simple. Is it you vs. Joe Public in your league? You’ll be coming armed with all the info that comes with a FBG subscription, all of the necessary stats and a firm grasp on some out-of-the box ones (e.g.: Quality Starts, WR Data Conglomerations, Hidden Talent -- all of which are excellent by the way). Mr. Public will probably be coming with a crisp, $8.99 magazine that he chose from the crop because Adrian Peterson was on the cover. It’s also likely he’s not concerned with his lack of studying because he just “knows football”. Yeah, okay. Color me stupid, but I’d say you’d have the upper hand there. Especially if you generously invest in a 24-pack of beer and a liter of whiskey for everyone at your draft party.

Think about it. Let’s say, you had some random quiz on the geography of Antarctica. Let’s also pretend that you knew when this quiz was, had a decent amount of time to study for it and should you get an A, would potentially win $1,000. Wouldn’t you be going to town absorbing everything possible about Antarctica? Not just, hey it’s cold and snowy, but things like the animals that live there, the average temperatures, how to spell it correctly etcetera? Hopefully that made sense. Regardless, I’ll stop hard selling you on obscure fantasy football strategies now.

Anyway, back to the topic. I ended up calculating and learning the inner-workings of a spreadsheet while tallying up what can essentially just be called “Fantasy Points Per Target.” As with my previous targets post, I’m sure something has been done with this in the past, but I’ve completely invented my own system for it. For better or worse. Hopefully not worse.

Unfortunately, there’s no rookies included in this. I wanted to include them, but found the lack of NFL statistics to compare with anything quite difficult to overcome. I may sound like I’m good with math, but I’m probably still at a tenth grade level. Tenth grade was around the time that I realized the benefits of substituting math class with gym class instead. Good times.

To the best of my knowledge and research, everyone on the following lists are still active. They all played to some extent last year and will have the opportunity to get some more time this year. Honestly, I hadn’t even heard of some of the people on the lists. But with the help of Pro Football Reference, The Game Log Dominator and ESPN (to see who changed teams), I managed to eliminate everyone who had either been run out of the league due to lack of talent or retired. There may be a player or two on one of the lists who does not belong. So if you find one, just leave a reply that references the player and I’ll fix it.

After looking at the overall list (ranked by fantasy point(s) per target from 2002-2007), five things stood out to me:

1. The top of the list was skewered with younger players who had a high Fpts/Tg due to a small sampling of quality games.
   
   
2. It may be worth the effort to factor out TD’s and make both a Fpts/Tg and TD/Tg statistic.
   
   
3. The overall Fpts/Tg didn’t give an accurate depiction of what a players value would be this year. Some type of year-by-year profile would be necessary.
   
   
4. The entire list needed to be broken up in some way.
   
   
5. I definitely needed to start using spreadsheets more often.

I ended up splitting the overall list into two. One for the players with more than 140 targets since 2002 and one for those with less. Before I present the first list, I want to quickly give my interpretation of Fpts/Tg.

Fpts/G is good and all but just like receptions, it doesn’t tell the entire story. Targets help us gauge how often a player was targeted in a particular game or season. We can then factor in what the cause of the receptions/targets gap is -- whether it was a penalty, a poor pass or just some plain old butterfingers. It’s a way of sharpening what we try and see in the crystal ball that is predictions, projections and potential.

Now apply that to Fpts/Tg. It combines potential and production, just like Rec/Tg does. In addition however, it also can give you a way to apply all of that information to your fantasy team. Sure it’s not a concrete statistic by any means, but it does help give a clearer picture on how a particular player converts his targets into points for your squad.

As I said before, I may have to factor out TD fantasy points and have them stand alone as a TD/Tg type stat. If your still reading this and have some semblance of an idea as to what I’m talking about, your feedback would be most appreciated.

Enough small-talk. Since I know people don’t tend to enjoy reading mini-novels while at their computer, I’m breaking this bad boy into two parts.

This and what follows is Part One. This one will deal with the 140+ ‘02-’07 targets list. Part Two will deal with the < 140 ‘02-‘07 targets list. It will probably be done sometime tomorrow, if anyone actually cares. It’s not too complicated, right? As always, enjoy and feel free to roast me in the replies!

NOTE: You need to click on the following picture in order to enlarge it. If not, you probably won't be able to read it..

Before we get to the year by year player breakdowns, here’s some overall observations of the list:

• For the most part, the list is pretty solid. Which makes sense. You aren’t going to get 140 targets in the NFL and be a question mark.
  
• If Chris Henry can get his act together, he could be the heir to the Ocho-Cinco/Houshmandzadeh throne. The kid is just plain talented.
  
• Good thing the Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe, because they don’t have anybody after him. They were the only team not to have at least one WR representative in the preceding list.
  
• The Miami Dolphins don’t fare much better. They’re second to last with only one WR on the list currently on the roster.
  
• Four teams are tied for the most, with five players on their active roster. They’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and St. Louis Rams in no particular order.
  
• All four teams with five players on the list have a WR corps that is generally regarded as middle-of-the-pack. It can’t hurt to have that many veterans, though.
  
• The top two players on the list, Chris Henry and Devery Henderson, are perennial under-achievers. But they’re also big-time playmakers when on their A game. Both unfortunately have major question marks heading into 2008.
  
• Patrick Crayton and Santonio Holmes are believed to be primed for more targets this year. Neither are sleepers, but could one or both make the leap to elite WR status?

Some yearly player breakdowns (since 2005):


Devery Henderson

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 52 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 55 targets, 4.2 Tg/G, 111 Fpts, 2.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 42 targets, 2.6 Tg/G, 60 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Devery Henderson has talent. There’s no denying that. Although the fact that he drops just as many passes as he catches has been and still is a cause for concern. It’s to be expected of rookies if they had the problem in college, but it definitely should be cleared up before the WR’s fourth year. On the bright side, Henderson makes an enticing option for Orville Redenbacher’s 2009 ad campaign.

Team changes: The addition of Jeremy Shockey and emergence of Robert Meachem has not helped Henderson’s case for more playing time. If he can clear up the drop problem though, he has all the tools to be a great compliment to Marques Colston.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (38-40)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (0.8)


Chris Henry

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 78 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 75 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2007: 8 games, 38 targets, 4.8 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg

Like Henderson, Chris Henry has talent and there’s no way around it. Unlike Henderson, Henry’s issues lie off the field. After being released by the Bengals and then re-signed, Henry appeared ready to put his off-the-field problems behind him. Although one should take anything someone says to the media in such a situation with a grain of salt. Henry can put up the numbers, but he needs to start acting his age.

Team changes: Although the pair of rookie WR’s the Bengals drafted have looked promising, Henry is the clear WR3 on the team. With more options, he may not get as many looks until everyone is reminded of what he can do after an 82 yard catch and run TD.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (50-55)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Randy Moss

2005: 16 games, 124 targets, 7.8 Tg/G, 148 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 97 targets, 7.5 Tg/G, 73 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 159 targets, 9.9 Tg/G, 287 Fpts, 1.8 Fpts/Tg

After Moss’ historic 2007 campaign, I think it’s safe to say that we’ll likely never see anyone top 2.0 Fpts/Tg after starting all 16 games in a season. He’s still the number one receiver and he still has Tom Brady throwing to him. Normally, I wouldn’t have even highlighted Moss since it’s hard to expound upon a sure thing, but I think the 1.8 Fpts/Tg will become the benchmark for years to come.

Team changes: The only thing that will effect Moss’ targets is if the team comes out the gate rushing more in 2008. Even then, he’s still going to be the go-to guy on offense.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (145-150)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.6)


Terrell Owens

2005: 7 games, 92 targets, 13.1 Tg/G, 112 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 151 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 196 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 141 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 225 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg

The only thing that can appear to stop Terrell Owens production is if he starts a locker room coup and gets sent packing to another team. Even in an “off-year” in 2006, T.O. was still one of the top WR‘s in the NFL. It can only get better as his rapport with Tony Romo strengthens. Although it may already have strengthened to the limit since T.O. now cries for the both of them following tough playoff losses.

Team changes: They’ve got Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton may have an increased role, but to think it will effect Owens’ targets that much is pure insanity. Barring the Cowboys acquiring Randy Moss, there’s not too much to worry about.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (130-135)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Same (1.6)


Lee Evans

2005: 16 games, 92 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 119 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 176 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 113 targets, 7.1 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg

Evans fell back to earth in 2007 after a breakout 2006. Although he got off to a slow start last year, Evans now finds himself with a competent QB who appears to realize the importance of getting him the ball in Trent Edwards.

Team changes: The Bills drafted highly-touted rookie James Hardy in the 2008 NFL Draft. It’s not that much of a concern and might even help get some attention off of Evans. Before Hardy, there wasn’t much on the receiving side of things to take the defenses attention away from him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Patrick Crayton

2005: 11 games, 35 targets, 3.2 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 48 targets, 3.0 Tg/G, 75 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 81 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 110 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Crayton has improved each year over the past three years and is now the clear WR2 on the team. Although you can make a case that he’s a WR3 and Jason Witten is the WR2/TE1, the fact that he’s on such a prolific offense can only help matters. Unless a new trend emerges where defenses focus solely on shutting down the WR2/3 on an offense with top-notch talent everywhere else, don’t expect Crayton to regress anytime soon.

Team changes: The Cowboys have added Felix Jones as the new compliment to Marion Barber, and now officially have become the token, most often used Madden team for scumbags worldwide.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (95-100)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.6)


Santonio Holmes

2005: N/A
2006: 16 games, 86 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 99 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 13 games, 85 targets, 6.5 Tg/G, 143 Fpts, 1.7 Fpts/Tg

Although Hines Ward isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, Holmes youth and talent have officially shoved him into the WR1 spot. Holmes and Roethlisberger flashed brilliance last year in many games and will only get better the more they play together. Also, expect a lot more targets for Holmes in 2008.

Team changes: The Steelers added talented rookies Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall to an already potent offense. With so many other places for the defense to focus on, Holmes will have many coordinators regretting taking the attention off of him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (110-115)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.5)


Reggie Wayne

2005: 16 games, 122 targets, 7.6 Tg/G, 135 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 185 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 156 targets, 9.8 Tg/G, 208 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg

Wayne has gotten more and more targets the past three years in what was a slow but steady, unspoken shift towards Marvin Harrisons WR1 slot. There are questions about Peyton Manning’s health and even if Jim Sorgi ends up playing a bit, he’ll likely find himself targeting one of the best WR’s in the NFL quite often.

Team changes: Nothing really that would effect Wayne, but if the possibly overblown Marvin Harrison doom sayers are correct, Wayne would obviously benefit. However it will be interesting to see, after impressive performances last year, just how much he can remain at the same level without one of the best WR’s in NFL history lining up opposite him. So it could also decrement him. We'll have to wait and see..

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Santana Moss

2005: 16 games, 134 targets, 8.4 Tg/G, 201 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2006: 14 games, 101 targets, 7.2 Tg/G, 123 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 14 games, 115 targets, 8.2 Tg/G, 97 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg

Although Moss’ fantasy point production has seen a notable decline the past three years, the installation of Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense can only hope to improve them. The team is going to throw more and likely throw more in the red zone. Both will be good things for Moss’ numbers.

Team changes: The Redskins took two WR’s and a TE in the second round of the 2008 Draft. All three will likely go through an adjustment period and Moss’ status on the offense remains unchanged.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.2)


Torry Holt

2005: 14 games, 163 targets, 11.6 Tg/G, 186 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 179 targets, 11.2 Tg/G, 177 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 149 targets, 9.3 Tg/G, 159 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg

Although Holt’s production has decreased over the past few years, 2007 can be blamed on the offensive line injuries. Optimism for Holt’s situation isn’t too far-fetched, especially since Isaac Bruce’s departure will give Holt even more targets. The only key is Marc Bulger’s health. As long as he is healthy, Holt will be just fine.

Team changes: Not too much to detail, but Stephen Jackson recently ended his holdout. They won’t be the high-powered Rams offense of yore, but Holt and Jackson are elite players at their respective positions.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)

The Magical 110: Analyzing WR Targets

To be honest, I’ve never really paid much attention to targets. Don’t ask me why, I just didn’t. I knew about them, but I never really tried to put them in context -- probably because I was too lazy. When you do think about them though, the more targets a player gets, the more his chance is to succeed. The better his chance to succeed, the more points he’ll likely put up for your fantasy squad. It’s not that hard of a concept to wrap your mind around. If I can do it...

With the help of the Game Log Dominator (to which I have officially become addicted) I compiled a list of the top WR targets from 2002-2007 and separated them by year. After studying the list and getting a decent handle on the fluxations from year to year, I tried to find a mark off point. One hour and two slices of pizza later, I found one. At least, I think I found one.

That cut off point was 110 targets per year. Not knowing quite where I was going but too intrigued to stop, I calculated the minimum and maximum average receptions, yards and TD’s from 2002-2007 combined. I dropped the highest and lowest each year to get a more realistic sampling. I’m not entirely sure if that was mathematically correct, but it made sense at the time. So I did it.

Out of all the players who had at least 110 targets from 2002-2007, the minimum average was:

62 receptions, 790 receiving yards and 3 TD’s

A fair amount of 1 and 2 TD performances bogged the minimum down a bit, but it’s still an impressive line none-the-less. On the positive end, the maximum average was:

104 receptions, 1,444 receiving yards and 13 TD’s

I think I speak for everyone when I say I’d take that! The summation I eventually came to was that if you could predict the WR’s who had a good shot at getting at least 110 targets then you have a great shot at having that player produce a pretty respectable season, at worst.

But I didn’t stop there. On average over the 6 years, 27 WR’s managed to be targeted at least 110 times. In the interests of seeing the amount of players who broke into that list on average each year, I continued upon my statistical, math-complimented quest. Without even a calculator, mind you! If only my third grade teacher could see me now..

Two hours and two cigarettes later, I came up with the average of 10 players over the past six years who broke into or back onto that top 27/110 targets list each year. To get to the point of the purpose for the post, here are the 10 players who I don’t think will manage to acquire the 110 targets that they saw in 2007:


Derrick Mason (BAL) - With Steve McNair gone and rookie Ray Rice wowing the crowds, the Ravens very well may run a lot more than they will pass this year. Especially with either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller at QB.

Lee Evans (BUF) - Marshawn Lynch proved last year he could be a workhorse back and rookie WR James Hardy gives Trent Edwards another actual option besides Evans to throw to.

Reggie Brown (PHI) - King of RB targets, Brian Westbrook, will still see a massive amount of targets for a RB. DeSean Jackson will in turn steal some more targets away from Brown.

Marques Colston (NO) - Pass catching TE Jeremy Shockey should see his fair share of targets in 2008. The emergence of rookie WR Robert Meachem should as well.

Bobby Engram (SEA) - You can’t get targets if your not on the field.

Chris Chambers (SD) - This may be a long shot, but if Gates can return soon then he’ll resume his hoarding of the targets. LaDainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson won’t help Chambers totals either.

Shaun McDonald (DET) - No Mike Martz system? No targets.

Bernard Berrian (CHI) - I don’t think I need to go on a limb and say that the Vikings may run a lot this year. The more they run, the less targets Berrian will get.

Donald Driver (GB) - Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons to spread the targets around. Driver will get some, but not 110.

Hines Ward (PIT) - Santonio Holmes? Willie Parker? Rashard Mendenhall? Heath Miller? All will get targets that Hines Ward will not.


Who will the ten be that fill the vacancies you say? Ask and you shall receive! The 2007 target totals are in parentheses:


Anquan Boldin (99) (ARI) - Should get at least 110 targets no matter who ends up being the starting QB.

Calvin Johnson (95) (DET) - He’s going to get more and more targets as the years go by.

Santonio Holmes (85) (PIT) - With Hines Ward on the decline, Holmes will benefit from increased targets.

Ten Ginn Jr. (71) (MIA)- Ginn’s likely targets got a huge boost with the arrival of Chad Pennington.

Muhsin Muhammad (81) (CAR) - Muhammed should see a lot of targets in Steve Smith’s two-game absence and even some when he returns. He’ll get more if Jake Delhomme can stay healthy.

Andre Johnson (86) (HOU) - The only reason Johnson didn’t total 110 last year was because he was injured for 7 games.

Jerry Porter (103) (JAX) - Porter should be a favorite target of Jaguars QB David Garrard.

Roy Williams (104) (DET) - With Mike Martz now gone, the Lions will have to throw to their top two WR’s a whole lot just like the normal teams.

Patrick Crayton (81) (DAL) - Someone has to get Terry Glenn’s targets and with Crayton now the WR2, he very likely will.

Laveranues Coles (89) - Maybe that Brett Favre character will have an effect on Coles' numbers?

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