Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs
Now I’m not saying Chad Pennington is going to have some type of comeback year for the ages or anything, but I am saying he’s a perfectly capable QB that was the answer to the receiving corps prayers. Think about it. One of the following QB’s was currently slated to be slinging balls for the offense, and likely to the wrong team. Complete with career stats:
Josh McCown: 609 for 1052 (57.9%), 6582 yards, 35 TD’s, 40 INT’s. He is entering his seventh NFL season.
John Beck: 60 for 107 (56.1%), 559 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT’s. He is entering his second NFL season.
Chad Henne: Has not yet started an NFL game and would have to go through the necessary growing pains expected of rookie QB’s.
Could one of those players ended up having a good 2008? Absolutely. Would you want to put any type of money on that? I doubt it. Now, let’s take a look at the QB the world forgot about, Chad Pennington:
Chad Pennington: 1259 for 1919 (65.6%), 13738 yards, 82 TD’s, 55 INT’s. He is entering his ninth NFL season.
Uh, yeah. I’ll take Pennington, thanks.
Anyway, with that obvious but necessary piece out of the way, let’s take a look at Jerricho Cotchery’s stats the year he played a bit part on offense and wasn’t on the field too much.
Jerricho Cotchery
(2005): 19 receptions, 251 yards, 0 TD’s (12 games played, 1 game started)
Now, we know that Pennington was on the team in 2005, but Cotchery wasn’t given enough playing time to benefit from that. He was also still learning the intricacies of the WR position, with it being only his second year in the league and his first with some good, solid playing time. Let’s take a look at Ted Ginn Juniors stats in his first year in the league:
Ted Ginn Jr.
(2007): 34 receptions, 420 yards, 2 TD’s (16 games played, 9 games started)
It’s easy to see that Ginn had much more of a role in his rookie year than Cotchery had in his first two years in the NFL combined. Because of this, Ginn is likely well-entrenched in the verses of the WR position. Now let’s take a look at Cotchery’s first year with a starting role in the offense, one that formally introduced him to Chad Pennington.
Jerricho Cotchery
(2006): 82 receptions, 961 yards, 6 TD’s (16 games started)
Not bad. A lot of that can be attributed to Cotchery’s talent but couldn’t some of it also be placed on Pennington? Cotchery was targeted 125 times in 2006 and the ball managed to find itself safely in his hands 82 of those times. Pennington may be knocked for his lack of any kind of powerful arm, but the man is accurate. He’s completed nearly two thirds of his throws his entire career. All in all, I think it’s safe to assume that he’s a quality QB.
With Cotchery barely able to build a rapport with Pennington in 2005 due to the small amount of playing time, the two essentially built a connection throughout the 2006 season itself. Cotchery was also the second option for Pennington, with Laveranues Coles easily claiming the title of both WR1 and the QB’s favorite receiver.
Jumping back to the present, Ginn is the clear cut WR1 on a Dolphins offense that’s looking to begin moving forward after some serious off-season patch-up work. What does that mean? It means that Ginn will likely benefit from not only more targets (he had 71 last year), but also from a competent QB who can consistently throw the ball in his general vicinity.
Is it that much of a stretch to think that Ginn could put up similar numbers to what Cotchery churned out in 2006? No. It’s definitely not. The stretch would lie in how much better you think Ginn could do. Cotchery was targeted 125 times as the WR2 but also benefited from having a superb receiver lining up opposite of him in Laveranues Coles. Ginn saw 71 targets last year as a rookie and it was a year in which he didn’t get much playing time until Chris Chambers left before Week 7.
I would say that 125 targets for Ginn is a basement estimate. With reports that Ronnie Brown may have to start the season at a snails pace thanks to his finger injury, the Dolphins are sure to lean on Pennington until Brown returns. No offense to Ricky Williams since I’m sure he’ll contribute somewhat, but I want to see how he looks during an actual game that means something. The guy is 31 years old and not counting last years disappointing six attempt season, hasn’t played a substantial amount of time in the NFL in what’s now approaching three years. If thinking the Dolphins are going to pass a lot makes me crazy then so be it. I don’t want to be sane.
In the interests of being realistic and not allowing the predictions to get out of hand, I say it’s safe to pencil in Ginn for at least 130 targets. Please note the ‘at least’ part of that statement. Out of the 130 balls thrown to him, say 10 get called back by penalties or are nullified for whatever reason. Chad Pennington’s career completion percentage is 65.6% but we’ll give age and a change in living situation the benefit of the doubt here and say he’ll complete 60% of his passes this year. That’s probably the bare minimum. Add in a quick entrance from our friend the calculator and that leaves us with the following projection:
2008 Projection
Ted Ginn Jr: 130 targets, 72 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD’s
And that is being GENEROUS with the negative outside factors. Barring some type of major injuries to Ginn himself, Pennington or the offensive line, that stat line could very easily be achieved by Ginn unless he’s managed to lose his football talent somehow during the off-season.
Aaaand... scene!
Friday, June 13, 2008
The 10 NFL Off-Season Moves With The Biggest Potential Of Impact
In one of the most active, exciting NFL off seasons in quite some time, the 2008 free agency period gave all of those suffering football withdrawals plenty to whet their appetites. Or at least it did for me. Please tell me I’m not the only one who suffers from football withdrawals..
What follows is a nice concise list of the 10 off season events which have the biggest potential to impact everything in which they’ve come into contact with. It’s not a top ten because I figured it wouldn’t behoove me to try and rank things that haven’t happened yet and then try and pass it off as fact. History has a tendency to be unkind to people who try that sort of thing.
Brett Favre’s and Michael Strahan’s retirements..
Why did I bunch these two’s retirements together you ask? Well, not only are their respective retirements likely to have a huge impact on their former teams, but they are also out of work at precisely the same time. And what do we know about NFL pre-game shows and recently retired players? That’s right, they facking love them!
Favre and Strahan are both the kind of people who have always tried to find the funny in life and I believe it would be a monumental moment should both of them land on the same pre-game show. It would change millions of American’s Sunday mornings for the better. Even if the two of them never team up, I’m confident at least one of them will try their hand in TV.
Sure, the guy’s off the field decisions have made many wonder if he’s somehow related to the Vick brothers, but try and take yourself back to when he was still playing football. He was electric, he made big plays and made everyone around him play better. He had such a natural ability playing the game of football, I was certain he would eventually become one of the best corners and all around playmakers in the league.
We all know what happened, but it seems a lot of people have forgotten just what he used to bring to the table. Although not until he suits up again will we see whether or not a year off making it rain has decremented his athletic ability or not.
Donte Stallworth to the Browns..
Yes, he was the third best receiver on his team last year. But he was the third best receiver on the best offense, behind two other wide outs who had all-decade type years. Even if Stallworth plays average by his standards, his presence on the field will open it up for Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Or vice versa.
While his talent can only help the team, Stallworth’s multiple personalities/alter egos might have the potential to do some harm in the locker room. Do you really expect Jamal Lewis to stand by idly while Donte is speaking in third person, pretending he’s an alien?
Asante Samuel to the Eagles..
The Eagles have taken some flack for not dealing Lito Shephard during the draft or in it’s aftermath. Now, they have three top-tier cornerbacks. True, there are only two starting positions at corner, but how is having three top-tier cornerbacks a bad thing? What’s the worst thing that can happen? They start a CB by committee trend? That would be a good thing! One gets tired, spell in the other one. The Eagles may be onto something here..
Alan Faneca to the Jets..
I wish I was there when Thomas Jones first heard about the Faneca signing. I wouldn’t have been surprised in the least had he done a cartwheel, hugged the nearest person, then began pouring shots for everyone. He is after all the same guy who had one rushing touchdown last year. That’s right, just the one.
Although he was partially to blame, the Jets offensive line also played a key role in Jones’ failing his quests’ for six. Faneca was an integral piece in a Steelers offensive line that was great year in and year out and looks to fill one of the biggest weaknesses for the Jets last year.
Jared Allen to the Vikings..
Even if Allen ends up dislocating a knee cap (Is that even possible?) in week one, his impact on the Vikings and it’s nation has been palpable. Barring such a catastrophic injury, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Allen doesn’t take the Vikings defense to another level. Now they have two of the best in the game on either side of the ball. Adrian ‘All Day’ Peterson on offense and Jared ‘I don’t have a cool nickname’ Allen on defense.
And don’t worry Vikings fans, I’ve never jinxed a thing in my life. They aren’t even real, save for the legendary ‘Jinx you owe me a Coke, bitch’ gem. So you should be good.
Randy Moss returning to the Patriots..
Had Moss taken the money and went to the Eagles, it very well could have changed the landscape of the entire universe.
1.) The Patriots lose Moss, Stallworth and Samuel and drop from their former ‘Elite’ level down to the ‘Well, they still have Tom Brady’ level. This would have caused all who dislike the Patriots to throw all night celebrations, a la every single state that’s not in New England. Vermont probably would have turned, too. Traitors.
2.) Having acquired a player of Moss’ caliber to pair with McNabb, Philly fans may have begun to think positive thoughts about the upcoming season. As we all know, that will probably never happen. Ever.
Michael Turner to the Falcons..
I actually subscribe to the belief that Turner, while a good back, will not live up to all of the hype. Not to mention I was bullshit the Falcons didn’t try and roll the dice with J-Norwood, who has a ton of potential and just so happens to be on my fantasy team. If the Falcons QB situation plays out like it should next year, meaning... shitty (Barring a Matty Ice coming out party. Quick side note: What are the odds that Matt Ryan likes Natty Ice with a nickname like Matty Ice? Isn’t it an absolute certainty? Is Matty Ice selling Natty Ice on television not a genius idea? Is anyone still reading this?), than Turner will have a hard time maintaining his career 5.5 yards per carry with eight men in the box every play.
On the other hand, Turner could be the next big thing and have fantasy owners everywhere punching themselves in the nuts next November because they didn’t take him.
Chad Johnson staying with the Bengals..
Apparently, Ocho Cinco has decided to take one for the team and actually participate in his teams off season workouts. What a guy! No matter your opinion on guy’s ego and love of money, the man has skills and his participation in the Bengals 2008 campaign can only bring good things. Unless he goes all 2005 T.O. on them and single handedly destroys their entire season. It should be interesting to watch..
Steely McBeam’s release by the Steelers..
Out of everything on this list, this is perhaps the most surprising. McBeam, regarded by some as the best mascot ever created was let go by the Steelers as we neared the start of the 2008 season. Everything about him was supposed to be symbolic about the city of Pittsburgh. The Mc was for the city’s Irish heritage and the Beam because Pittsburgh loves it some Jim Beam. Even the first name Steely is a reference to the city and it’s history with steel! Genius! Nothing says Pittsburgh like alcoholic Irish steel workers, after all.
How will the fans react to this? Either they will be calling for his return by week two, or the 98% of the city who are not Irish, alcoholic steelworkers will learn to live without such a polarizing, potentially homosexual mascot. Take your pick, but all kidding aside I think it’s safe to say: R.I.P. Steely McBeam, you truly were a legend.
