Tuesday, April 15, 2008
State of the Franchise: The Miami Dolphins
When a team goes 1-15 in a season, besides from being a mortal lock for the number one overall pick in the upcoming draft, they don’t have much going for them. The chemistry can’t be good after so many losses and even if the team is successful in filling it’s many weaknesses, it’s still very unlikely they’ll approach .500 the next year. In essence, if you’re a Dolphins fan, don’t bank on a playoff bid in 2008, barring an absolute miracle season for the ages. Sorry. With that said, the good news is that the Dolphins have just the man in place for the massive rebuilding project: Bill Parcells. Say what you want about the man (and many people have) but he does have skill in turning teams from worst to first. Or at least worst to almost first. Sure, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1990 (I was... four) -- but he’s had some successful rebuilding projects in his coaching career and he is to thank for much of the Cowboys recent stature as a league powerhouse. Here’s a list of the teams Parcells has taken over, their record the year prior to him taking over, followed by their records the three years after he became 'the boss'.
New York Giants
1982 (Perkins): 4-5
1983 (Parcells): 3-12-1
1984 (Parcells): 9-7 (made playoffs)
1985 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
New England Patriots
1992 (MacPherson): 2-14
1993 (Parcells): 5-11
1994 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
1995 (Parcells): 6-10
New York Jets
1996 (Kotite): 1-15
1997 (Parcells): 9-7
1998 (Parcells): 12-4 (made playoffs)
1999 (Parcells): 8-8
Dallas Cowboys
2002 (Campo): 5-11
2003 (Parcells): 10-6 (made playoffs)
2004 (Parcells): 6-10
2005 (Parcells): 9-7
The conclusion we can draw from this data? Disregarding playoff appearances (although he made the postseason at least once with each team he took over within two years) it is safe to say that Bill Parcells taking over horrible teams has a dramatic effect. None of them won Super Bowls, save for his Giants days -- but the teams had drastic turnarounds thanks to his coaching and personnel decisions.
Whether or not the Dolphins will stay with John Beck as their future QB remains to be seen. He didn’t look good in his five games last season, but I’m going to continue to practice what I preach and say the Dolphins need to wait a bit before they decide if he’s not for them. Still, though, if Beck plays like he did last year the Dolphins QB situation is dire. Trent Green was serviceable last year until his career was ended by another concussion.
Josh McCown was brought in in the off season and looks to the leader for the starting job going into the 2008 season. Again, the Dolphins QB situation is dire.
A bright spot on the Dolphins (and my fantasy team) for next year is Ronnie Brown. Before going down with an injury in Week 7, Brown was tearing it up, rushing for 602 yards on 119 attempts and 4 TD’s. Had he not gotten injured, the Dolphins very well could have won 3-4 games, something that more or less would have meant absolutely nothing, other than possibly dropping them out of the first overall selection.
Chris Chambers was traded to the Chargers in mid-season last year for a second round pick, leaving Ted Ginn Jr. as the team’s projected number one receiver in 2008. Ginn is regarded as one of the biggest busts of the 2007 draft. Did I say the Dolphins QB situation was dire? I meant the majority of the team.
Luckily for the Dolphins, they have a total of nine selections in the 2008 NFL Draft. These include the number one overall selection, two picks in rounds two, six and seven and one pick in round three. While Parcells draft history isn’t the best in the league, he’s still a good judge of talent and any type of talent will help this team.
The number one selection has been the subject of much controversy over the last couple of months. Some have said the Dolphins will take Glenn Dorsey, then it was Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan -- and some have said they would trade out of it. I subscribe to the belief that they will take Chris Long because he just seems like a right fit for a Parcells run team. But even if they take Jake Long, they’re still getting a great player -- they can’t really go wrong either way. As we learned from the 2006 draft, anything can happen with the first pick (See: Mario Williams over Reggie Bush). So it will be interesting to see if the Dolphins do what everyone thinks they're going to do and take a sure thing, or take a gamble and select someone that their scouting department thinks is the best player available at number one. Vernon Gholston anyone?
Rumor has it that defensive end Jason Taylor wants out of Miami and Parcells sure as hell won’t keep him around if he has too. Don’t be surprised if Taylor is involved in a draft day trade, especially considering his appearance on Dancing with the Stars. I'm sure the Tuna was pissed about that one.
The Dolphins defensive unit, who was once regarded one of the best in the league, finished 23rd overall last year. The passing defense was actually quite good, finishing 4th, while the rushing defense lived up to the offenses horrendous performances and finished last in the league. This is a major reason why I think the Dolphins will take Chris Long over Jake Long -- it would just make sense due to their weaknesses. Again, Gholston anyone?
Another desperate need for the Dolphins was wide receiver and they attempted to remedy this with the signing of Earnest Wilford. He’s nothing special, but anything will help the receiving corps at this point and Wilford is definitely not a liability. He’ll just need a decent QB to throw him the ball, that’s all.
After last year’s 1-15 finish, it’s a perfect time to bust out the saying: ‘Things can’t really get any worse.’ That at least hinges on the Dolphins not finishing 0-16 next season and honestly, that’s not going to happen. Really though, things can’t get any worse. No one is really expecting a 9-7 or 10-6 season from this team next year and if it happens, hey, all the power to them and all the Cinderella excitement for us. But hopefully, Dolphins fans realize that this is a rebuilding process and unfortunately the upcoming year is the bridge to eventual success.
But look on the bright side: The Dolphins have nine picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. It’s a certainty that many of those rookies will provide bright spots next year and perhaps show a preview of what’s to come. Some have said that the 2007 Dolphins were one of the worst teams to have ever played in the NFL and one could definitely make the case for this. But at least they have the tools and now with Parcells in the front office, the personnel to get this historic franchise on the right track and back to it’s winning ways.
State of the Franchise: The Minnesota Vikings
While the NFC East is easily recognizable as the most talented division in the NFC, one could make the case that the NFC North is the second. While the Packers surprised everyone and finished with the #2 seed in the NFC last year, the Vikings and Lions, who combined to win a total of nine games in 2006 sprung upon the scene -- and although both failed to make the
playoffs, they showed that they had what it takes to make the NFC North just as competitive as it was years ago.
Going into last season, no one really knew what to make of Tarvaris Jackson and whether or not he had the skill and toughness to be the starting QB for the Vikings. Sixteen games later (Jackson played in twelve of them) and it’s clear that he indeed does have what it takes, and should continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable and gains more game experience. He finished the year with 1,911 yards, 9 TD’s, 12 INT’s, a 58.2 completion percentage and a respectable 70.8 QB rating.
Another key player in the Vikings resurgence was 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Adrian “All-Day” Peterson. Unless you lived under a rock last year, you were sure to see many of his impressive highlights -- some of the best being from the game in which he broke the single game rushing record. That’s right, he broke the single game rushing record. As a rookie. He’s quite good. If you don’t believe the evidence staring at you from your computer screen, take a look at his 2007 season’s stat line:
238 rushes for 1341 yards (5.6 average) and 12 TD’s (4 fumbles) -- 19 receptions for 268 yards and 1 TD
Did I mention he was a rookie? What about the fact that he faced eight men in the box for the majority of the season? Are you impressed yet?
Had he failed to injure himself and miss Weeks 11 and 12 he could have arguably won the NFL MVP award as well, something that would have cemented his name in NFL history in just his first year. If he can stay away from injuries, something that hasn’t been a major factor -- but definitely a nagging one throughout his career, we very well could be seeing before our very eyes the ascent of one the best backs to ever grace a professional football field. Just like his nickname hints at, once you see him run you just want to watch him do so all day.
Minnesota’s 2007 defense was polarizing to say the least. Although they finished last in the league in passing defense, they did it while finishing first in the league in rushing defense. Talk about night and day. Can you take a wild guess at what they need to work on? That's right, they're defensive backs. More importantly, they need to build depth at the cornerback position, especially with Cedric Griffin able to play safety.
On the offensive side of the ball, assuming the front office is going to stick it out with Jackson as their starter (and they better) the weakness is clearly receiver. While Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice are definitely up and comers, Troy Williamson once again had a sub-par year and continued to have problems catching the ball consistently. The Vikings apparently got sick of waiting for him to realize he was a wide receiver and work on actually catching balls, so they traded him.
Ex-Chicago Bear Bernard Berrian was added in free agency and is coming off his best season yet. His 951 yards 5 TD’s last year was extremely impressive, especially considering who was throwing him the ball (See: Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton). While none of the Vikings main trio of wide receivers, Berrian, Wade and Rice have displayed premier number 1 receiver talent, they are all young and skilled and with time will only get better. Also, they will benefit from teams being petrified of Adrian Peterson and stacking the box to defend against him.
Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, while a solid blocker, isn’t the best receiving tight end in the league. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings draft a TE to eventually replace him, or stick with the current Shiancoe/Kleinsasser duo (which I think sucks).
Other notable free agent signings include: Michael Boulware, Madieu Williams, Derrick Pope and Ellis Wyms -- all of who will be fighting for starting jobs come that magical time of year known as NFL mini-camp.
With all of the success that Adrian Peterson had last year, it’s interesting to note that Chester Taylor very nearly rushed for 1,000 yards playing backup RB for the majority of the year. With Michael Turner now gone from San Diego, it could be said that the Vikings now have the best backup running back in the entire league. All signs point to them keeping him but it wouldn’t surprise many people if they dealt him before the draft or even during the season, especially with the recent signing of RB Maurice Hicks to a three year deal. As with many things, only time will tell, but you can get quite an impressive package if you trade him in Madden. It had to be said.
The Vikings have plenty of opportunities to fill some of their weaknesses during the upcoming NFL Draft. They have a total of nine selections, with one in every single round except for the third and sixth -- in which they have two picks. Nearly every single mock draft out there (including mine) has the Vikings taking Derrick Harvey at number 17. But as we all know about the NFL draft, things almost always go different from the way the experts pick them (See: Mel Kiper Jr). So don’t be surprised if the Vikings take someone else, or if Harvey is gone -- but do expect them to focus on the defense early and maybe select a wide receiver or tight end in the middle rounds. Here are some diamonds in the rough that the Vikings might select:
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Mario Manningham (Michigan) - Okay, I know he’s not a gem and it’s 80% likely the Vikings won’t even get the opportunity to select him in the second round but… I can dream, right?
Dexter Jackson (Appalachian St.) - He’s fast. Very, very fast.
Early Doucette (LSU) - A solid, well-rounded WR. Could put in time as a kick returner. Not to mention, he has the best first name in the draft.
Tight End Sleepers
Fred Davis (USC) - A great catching TE. Has been working on his blocking and he was a prime target in 2007 for Booty.
Craig Stevens (California) - Skilled as a receiving TE as well as a blocking TE. Could easily be the best in the draft class in a couple of years if he puts the work in.
With nine picks, even if the Vikings have a mediocre draft in terms of evaluating the talent, they should still be in a great spot. It just goes to show you, trading great players for draft picks several years away sometimes works out in the long run.
With Brett Favre’s retirement and the decline of the Bears last year, the time is now for the Vikings. If Tarvaris Jackson can keep improving, Adrian Peterson can stay away from injuries and the passing defense can improve, the Vikings have a very realistic shot at winning the rejuvenated NFC North.
Friday, April 11, 2008
State of the Franchise: The Detroit Lions
During the 2007 pre-season, Jon Kitna predicted that the Lions would win more than 10 games
that season. Within a few hours, the story was everywhere and nearly everyone thought he was nuts. Sure, it was a ballsy thing to do… but did he have a concussion or something? Perhaps the most surprising thing was that when asked how many wins the Lions would have in 2007 on a Detroit radio program, he didn’t even predict they’d win 10 games (which was an astronomical stretch in itself) instead, stating the following: “I’ll keep to myself what I think we actually will win. But it’s more than 10 games.”
Suffice it to say, not many people were taking Jon Kitna too seriously. In fact, many people were appalled and even a bit pissed that he would make such a bold prediction. In particular pessimistic media fashion, he was labeled an arrogant braggart -- with no way near the skill to back it up.
A hundred or so days later however, the Lions were 6-2 at the conclusion of Week 9. While some of the teams they had beaten weren’t in upper class of the league, if you will -- they still had two solid wins against the Broncos and Buccaneers. Going into Week 10, the Lions performance was so surprising and it’s bandwagon so packed that it made some people feel as if they were in the Outer Limits. At least I did.
As we all know, the Lions dropped 7 of their next 8 and finished the season 7-9, four wins short of the minimum amount Kitna predicted. Just as quickly as people had jumped on the bandwagon, they again turned on Kitna -- calling him a fool and blaming him of talking the talk but unable to walk the walk.
But while I agree that Kitna’s whole prediction did nothing to improve his reputation, you have to admit -- it was a ballsy thing to do. If I was running an NFL team whose roster was filled with underachievers and first round rookie busts -- why wouldn’t I want my new QB to look around and say ‘Yeah, we can win 8 more games than last year.’ What’s wrong with that? In fact, it’s not wrong at all -- it’s exactly the type of attitude a QB should have.
Going public with the prediction wasn’t the smartest idea, but what was he supposed to say?
“Mr. Kitna how many games will the Lions win in 2007?”
“Ehh, I dunno. We’ll be lucky to crack six -- but hey, you never know!”
He’d be stoned in the street! His whole attitude towards the 2007 season was exactly what we admire in our athletes, yet he was ridiculed because his supporting cast was less than stellar. But I say good on him, because I have a feeling he’ll be twice as focused to make his prediction ring true in his second season in Detroit.
The Lions for the first time in years, made several high profile moves in free agency. The Lions released Kevin Jones, their 2004 1st round draft pick who while often showing flashes of brilliance, had his five years in Detroit riddled with injuries. Meanwhile T.J. Duckett jetted so fast to Seattle, many people wondered why he failed to move that fast on the football field.
This leaves Tatum Bell as the big man in the Little D backfield. Although he didn’t play too much last year, he had an impressive few years in Denver. But it remains to be seen, like many running backs thrust into a starter role, if he can handle the bulk of careers for an entire NFL season.
Shaun Rogers, who failed to live up to hefty expectations in his seven years in Detroit was traded to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for defensive back Leigh Bodden. Bodden, who spent all five years of his career thus far in Cleveland blossomed last year -- causing Chad Johnson to claim he was the best corner he faced all of last year.
Many people criticized the Lions for taking Calvin Johnson number 2 overall in the 2007 Draft, however he lived up to expectations (unlike the other three top ten wide receivers they’ve taken in the past five years) and perhaps even exceeded them. With his rookie season under his belt he and Roy Williams should be a lot more comfortable with Jon Kitna in their second year together.
The defense, which left much to be desired like many other losing teams last year, did hold host to another blossoming star: Ernie Sims. In his rookie year with the Lions, Sims just missed out on a Pro Bowl bid and looks to solidify the Lions weak side linebacker spot for many years to come.
With the 15th pick in this year’s draft, it’s up in the air where the Lions will choose to go -- but it’s looking very likely they will build depth on defense. However, taking Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall to share a committee with Tatum Bell might be a wise choice as well. With eight picks to utilize for the entire draft and a very deep and strong defensive pool of players that should be available in the mid to late rounds, taking a RB to spell with Bell if one falls to them at number 15 just might be the best course of action. Jonathan Stewart, being hailed by some fanatics as the best RB in the entire draft (even better than Darren McFadden apparently) would also be a great fit in the Lions offense.
For reasons unbeknownst to anyone, the Lions released offensive coordinator Mike Martz, generally regarded as a key reason the Lions offense was explosive last year. He was used as a scapegoat for the second half collapse, and his release might just come back to haunt the Lions front office.
It’s coming up on the year anniversary of Jon Kitna’s infamous more than ten game prediction and it’s a smart bet to assume he just might make another prediction. With a little luck in the draft, and solid years from it’s free agent pick ups, don’t be surprised if his prediction comes true this year.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
State of the Franchise: The Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns came out of nowhere in 2007.That’s it. That is the only way to describe their 2007 season. I don’t care where you're from (with Cleveland excluded of course), you did not predict they would be as good as they were. Sure, their defense had it’s moments … but compared to the abysmal 2006 campaign, it wasn’t half bad. 
To go on a tangent, I would like to express my fondness for Romeo Crennel. Yes, being a Patriots fan I’d come to love him more than most -- but you have to respect someone who in the face of being fired led his team to a performance that can only be described as… well, very well coached. Don't even start about the defense, nobody could have turned that squad into a respectable unit. Sure, the Browns had some breakout stars surface in 2008 (See: Derek Anderson) but one thing is for certain... we can finally come to a conclusion on one thing: Romeo Crennel is a fantastic football coach.
It’s a topic for another day and another article, but sometimes great coaches are put in impossible situations (See: Bill Belichick in Cleveland, Steve Spurrier in Washington, and dare I say Bobby Petrino in Atlanta? [Just kidding, he was just a quitter]) and we are entirely too quick to judge on their merits as a coach. I don’t care if Vince Lombardi was the coach of the 2007 Miami Dolphins, they weren’t getting anywhere near the post season.
Derek Anderson started Week 2 against the Bengals and never looked back. Although it’s interesting that starting Week 14, when the Browns needed him most in order to make the playoffs -- he couldn’t keep up his standard play. Was it that defensive coordinators finally had enough film to counter him? Or was it that he just crumbled under the pressure of leading an NFL franchise, one that had been the laughing stock of the NFL just a year earlier, to a playoff berth? The answer to that question won’t really be answered until 2008 but I for one believe that the whole thing put the Browns in an impossible situation (at least in regards to the mass media).
Do you no re-sign Anderson, have him to go on and continue his success and once again return the Browns to the lower class of the NFL? What if Brady Quinn turned out to be a bust? Would Cleveland ever recover?
Or do you sign Anderson, hope he continues his breakout performance from last year and hope Cleveland fans aren’t calling for his head and cheering for Quinn to start mid season? Isn't that a coaches nightmare? A QB controversy in a situation like this?
No matter what will turn out to be the correct choice, (the Browns chose the latter) I’m sure many NFL teams would kill for a proven QB such as Anderson and a potential superstar such as Quinn to both grace their depth chart come pre-season, so there's no need to focus on that as a potential fault, really.
Every team has an Achilles heel and the weakness for the 2007 Browns was easily their defense. During the first half of the year, the Browns let up a horrific 30 points per game. During the last half they at least got it down to league standard, letting up a respectable 24 points per game.
Unfortunately, the off season saw the departure of Leigh Bodden, a promising young corner who signed with the Detroit Lions. The off-season was not wrought with disappointment however. WR Donte Stallworth, DT’s Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams both signed with the new-look Browns.
Will Shaun Rogers continue to underachieve in Cleveland?
RB Jamal Lewis, who had a resurgence of sorts in 2007 isn’t getting any younger (he’s fast approaching the magical RB age of 30) however he still provides a capable running back in what is largely a passing offense. With not many picks in the 2008 NFL draft, the Browns will likely have to wait until next year for their heir apparent in the backfield. Jason Wright will be left to spell Lewis and although he doesn’t have breathtaking speed, he is a suitable compliment to Lewis’ power.
With no picks until the fourth round, the Browns are obviously hoping the free agents they signed will be worth basically their entire 2008 draft. Under achiever Shaun Rogers takes nothing off the table in terms of the Browns defense and should improve it greatly. Donte Stallworth will prove an excellent compliment to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow in what could prove to be the best WR1-WR2-TE1 trio in the league. Edwards and Winslow should continue right where they left off in 2007, and establish themselves as elite players at their respective positions.
If the Browns’ secondary can limit game changing mistakes and Jamal Lewis can continue his steady, powerful play, the Browns should get what they just missed out on in 2007. A playoff bid.
The Powerless Rankings (4/10/08)
We all know and love (or possibly hate) the phenomenon known as Power Rankings. They provide just about anyone an opportunity to give their opinion on who the best teams are each week in any given league. But don’t we owe it to ourselves to know who the bad teams are as well? Sport Crack is proud to present a new weekly feature: The Powerless Rankings!
Rankings are done in reverse order, with 1 being the worst and 5 being the fifth worse… as if I needed to tell you. Rankings are also done on how the team is performing thus far with little to no regard of how they should be doing (I‘m looking at you Detroit). This is so the rankings will not be biased on previous years performance and will just be focused on the here and now. Oh, and please feel free to disagree vehemently in the comments. Thank you.
5. San Francisco Giants (3-6, LW: N/A) - The Giants pitching staff can be credited with the majority of the club’s three wins thus far. The offense? Well, the offense -- minus Bengie Molina -- cannot be credited with the wins. Unless you define credit as scoring 19 runs in 9 games. They did score 6 runs in the last two games though, so maybe they’ve finally gotten their act together.Prognosis: Expect much of the same.
4. Houston Astros (3-7, LW: N/A) - It’s common knowledge the Astros have a strong offense. Too bad it hasn’t caught fire yet, because the pitching has done nothing to help matters. Although they didn’t let up too many runs, a mixture of mediocre pitching and mediocre batting will give you a mediocre performance for the first week. Hey, maybe Roger Clemens will come back mid-season to help them out... oh, that's right -- he's disgraced himself so badly he's unlikely to surface anywhere ever again. Or maybe he'll just be arrested for lying under oath... who knows. Too bad for the Astros, though.Prognosis: Depending on when the offense decides to wake up -- don’t expect them to do much of anything.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (3-5, LW: N/A) - Opposing offenses have scored a league high 54 runs against the Pirates pitching staff. Not to mention, they are 0-2 at home. If they can’t win at PNC park, than where can they win at? The offense has looked promising, so if they can get their pitching staff in order even just a tiny bit they could still turn it around.Prognosis: Until their pitching staff realizes it’s not spring training anymore, expect the same as the previous eight games.
2. Washington Nationals (3-6, LW: N/A) - Sure, they started off great -- winning their first three games. Then they proceeded to drop their next six games. It’s not looking any better either, with the Braves coming to town on Friday for a trio of weekend games. Seriously though, six games in a row?Prognosis: Even if they break their slump, their still in the bottom third of the league.
1. Detroit Tigers (1-7, LW: N/A) - Speaking of six games in a row... I can’t remember any season in which a team that was supposed to be so good and looked so stacked on paper started so anemically. The good thing for them is they at least looked like the Tigers team they should have been in Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox. Is it just a slow start to the season or is this a legit preview of what’s to come from the Tigers -- the same team many people picked to win the World Series?Prognosis: Barring half their team seemingly losing all of their baseball skill (Hmm, I wonder how that could happen)… expect them to be the Tigers of yore very, very soon.
Honorable mentions: Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, and the (gasp) New York Mets
