SportsCrack

NFL 2008 Preview With Divisional and Playoff Predictions

Ah, can you smell it? No, not the sorry excuse for food you’re brewing in your kitchen – the NFL season genius! There’s a hint of fall in the air and all of the locals are wearing the current player bandwagon jersey. Labor Day has finally arrived and it’s officially okay to start planning how to bogart your children’s Halloween candy. It all hints at the same thing, with that thing being the official arrival of the NFL season. AKA, the only sports season that really matters.

For whatever reason, this particular off-season seemed especially rough. But it’s okay now, because we’re officially less than 72 hours from opening night.

Speaking of opening night, we’ll kickoff this year’s NFL season with two teams from the NFC East, which is arguably the toughest division in football. Well, save for the Redskins who are like the red-headed step child of the division, but even they are better than most other teams. Would there be a better place to start off an NFL preview than with the toughest division in the sport? I submit that there is not.

The key:

Z - Clinches home field advantage and wild card playoff bye
X - Clinches division
Y – Clinches wild card playoff bid

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins

The Dallas Cowboys are the popular pick here and with good reason, they’re team is stacked and they are the token most-played-as Madden team of 2008. However the only team that can go blow for blow with them on offense in the division are the Eagles. The Eagles improved on both offense (Desean Jackson) and defense (Asante Samuel), not to mention that they have a threat to top 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Brian Westbrook. Barring a Donovan McNabb injury, the team will be a serious competitor in both the division and the entire league.

Usually, defending Super Bowl champs get a bit more respect, but not when they’ve lost two integral parts of the winning team. Michael Strahan retired to follow Tiki Barber’s blazoned career path towards television whereas Osi Umenyiora has been lost for the year thanks to a torn lateral meniscus. And no, I have no idea what a meniscus is. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are talented, but not enough so to completely fill in the aforementioned players cleats. Not even close. It also remains to be seen which Eli Manning is going to show up this season. Either the Super-Vendetta, Eli or the Aw-Shucks-That-Was-My-Fault-You-Dropped-That, Eli.

Likely to end up in the cellar is the Washington Redskins. Jason Campbell and company will be making the transition into the West Coast Offense this year and will be working out all the kinks. Again, being in the basement of the NFC East isn’t even that bad. I see it being like a refurnished basement complete with ping pong tables, a mini-fridge and a nice sports watching section. Just like the AFC South’s would have…

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans

Easily the toughest division in the AFC, the South saw three of its teams gain entry into the playoffs last year. Even before all the reports out of Indiana broke about Peyton Manning’s not-that-serious knee injury actually being quite serious, I had the Jaguars pegged as division winners. They’ve shown they could at times play on the Colts level offensively over the past few years and now, finally, have a quarterback who is capable of managing everything necessary in order to beat them.

The defense lost some key players (Marcus Stroud) but quickly found players to shore up the defensive line through the NFL Draft (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves). The Colts on the other hand, have questions about Peyton Manning’s knee and Marvin Harrison’s ability to contribute at a pre-2007 level. Both instances have likely been over-blown, but it’s worth noting, especially from a team who hasn’t had any of those problems for what seems like the past 55 years.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are in the bottom tier of the division, but both having promising young teams. It’s a tossup as to who most think will finish ahead of the other, but I figure there’s a good chance they’ll both finish with nearly the same record (somewhere around 8-8). The key for the Texans will be the health of QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson whereas for the Titans it will be Vince Young’s progression into a mature QB. He showed flashes of maturity last year as well as a blossoming connection with his receivers. If everything goes as it should, this division could be a down and out war year after year for the next 5-7 years.

Also, does anyone think we should apologize to Charlie Casserley after he was shunned from society after the Mario Williams pick? Although Reggie Bush wasn’t a bust by any means, he definitely hasn’t lived up to the Barry Sanders like billing everyone was placing upon him. Hey, speaking of Reggie Bush...

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons

The New Orleans Saints had an off year last year compared to their 2006, but look to return to the big stage this year with nearly everyone healthy as well as some new additions. Jeremy Shockey and injury-red-shirt rookie Robert Meachem should make some positive contributions on offense. Plus, Drew Brees is very unlikely to take any of Shockey’s #### like Eli did, which could actually mean we may see an improvement in Shockey’s play. No one has had the balls to tell him what he does wrong yet, so we’ll have to wait and see how he’ll take to Brees. Several draft picks could contribute defensively, including but not limited to USC defensive tackle Sedrick Willis. Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma should also help out. To summarize it all, with the state of the rest of the division, it’s a safe bet that the Saints will win the NFC South this season.

The Carolina Panthers would beg to differ with that, with most of the key pieces from their explosive offensive days again ready to start together. Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad all look to be healthy, although Jake Delhomme is coming off of Tommy John surgery -- which is never a good thing for a QB. The Panthers also has a potentially potent duo of running backs in Deangelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. Unfortunately, besides some good rookies and solid at best free agent signings, the Panthers defense looks much the same as it did last year. Although last year’s problem was a failure to live up to expectations, so perhaps they can do the opposite in 2008.

A lot of people have Tampa Bay higher or maybe even winning the division, but I expect a Jeff Garcia fall back to earth this year. I actually expected it last year too, but it didn’t happen. Usually I wouldn’t expect such things two years in a row, but in Garcia’s case (his age), I’m going to. The defense is aging but is still solid and should be effective. Earnest Graham’s 2007 remains in question because it was so short, so we’ll have to wait and see on him as well. In a division known for the top teams falling down the ranks and then climbing back up again, this year may be the Bucs turn.

The Falcons are just a paradox now that we’ve learned that rookie Matt Ryan will start at QB and Michael Turner is as yet unproven as a starting RB. The defense isn’t very good, especially with the departure of Deangelo Hall, so it’s a wise move to expect a last place finish this year from them. Hey, that made me think of…

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears! You’ve likely heard enough about the NFC North too much already thanks to all that was covered during the Favre saga, but hey, we don’t have to talk about Brett again until the AFC East. Save that one for last? Sure! The Minnesota Vikings have a solid, talented team and are incredibly strong at nearly every position save for QB. Fortunately for them, the three other teams in the division have the same problem. Although Bryant McKinnie is out for four weeks and Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to win some of their ballgames himself, he’s going to have tons of opportunities to do so thanks to the Vikings defensive front. Is it too early to suggest a Purple People Eaters 2 type nickname? What’s that? That nickname sucked you say? Alright, well, the Vikings defense is going to be giving opposing offenses fits all year long and the combination of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor should give Tarvaris Jackson plenty of soft secondary’s to through into.

If Aaron Rodgers turns out as billed, then the Packers would have a good shot at the division. But the pressure of filling in You-Know-Who’s shoes and the fact that he’s going to have to beat the Vikings all by himself TWICE because Ryan Grant won’t have any success against them will likely add up to a second place finish. Maybe less, but I doubt that.

Taking a look at the other half of the division, the Chicago Bears situation has officially become a joke and the Detroit Lions have been one for years. However, I think the Lions have enough talent on offense and Jon Kitna is just crazy enough to think they can really win 14 games this year for them to have a decent enough year. Not 14-wins decent, but more like 7 or 8, and especially if they land Rudi Johnson to compliment Kevin Smith (which it appears they have).

As for the Bears, well, I don’t have anything nice to say so I won’t say anything at all, although I’d be surprised if they don’t finish in last place. A team I WOULD be surprised at finishing last calls home the…

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Baltimore Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers are stacked, that’s the only way I can put it -- just incredibly stacked. They have a weapon for nearly every devisable situation and it just baffles me. A lot of people think the Browns are going to compete with them thanks to last year’s performance but I had serious, serious doubts about Derek Anderson.

Unless he proves that last year wasn’t a fluke, especially after his tail-spin at the end of the year that was either due to A) He isn’t good under pressure, or, B) He isn’t good when defensive coordinators have sufficient game tape of him to game plan for, I think the Browns would do well to keep him on a short leash in favor or Brady Quinn. I could be wrong, but I think Andersons late 2007 performance has been overlooked quite often.

The team I was referring to that I would be surprised if they finished in last place was the Cincinnati Bengals. I even considered putting them in at the 2 spot but realized that the only reason I would be doing that would be to make a crazy, controversial prediction just for the sake of making one. I can’t stand people who do that.The Bengals once again have everyone healthy, although now they have a new RB with tons of potential. However that potential is watered-down by some injury risks, so it’s worth being wary of. Even if they have problems at RB again this year, barring Chad Johnsons shoulder popping out of his socket, causing him to miss the entire year – I think the offense will be just fine. It’s the defense where the questions lie, so hopefully rookie Keith Rivers will give them solid play from such a high draft pick.

The Ravens have questions at many positions but most has a good chance of panning out well in the long run (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Fabian Washington). The defense continues to get older all the while so it will be interesting to see when they start to focus on bringing some top-round Draft talent or solid free agents in order for the veterans to pass the torch on. Who knows, though, Joey Flacco could have a fantastic rookie season and the Ravens could compete for the division title. That would be quite doubtful, though. Just as doubtful is the situation out West…

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. St. Louis Rams
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

If the Seattle Seahawks played in any other division, it’s unlikely they’d still be able to scoot by and win the division year after year with so many injury problems. However, no one in the NFC West has stepped up to claim the throne, so the Seahawks stay seated there. This year, the only real threat to the division crown is the St. Louis Rams, who were plagued by injuries so widespread it seemed like it was contagious. With the return of a healthy Stephen Jackson and entire offensive line, the Rams look to fare a lot better this year.

Seattle’s situation is yet again muddied by injury this year and yet again at the WR position. Both Deion and Branch and Bobby Engram will miss a significant amount of time, although they leave behind openings that look to be filled by some talented young wide outs. Matt Hasselbeck is still Matt Hasselbeck; the RB spot has what seems like a dozen possible starting candidates and the defense isn’t the best in the league, but also isn’t the worst. Here’s a perfect opportunity to use the word solid right here. They Seahawks defense is solid. The word solid is a solid word in terms of being a football adjective, I think. The 49ers, doubtfully proud owners of the worst, most anemic offense in the NFL last year have been giving a gleam of hope with the arrival of Mike Martz.

The whole discussion has been beaten to death several times, so I’ll try and keep it simple. Josh Morgan is going to be Martz’s Torry Holt, Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce will combine to be Martz’s pre-2006 Isaac Bruce and Frank Gore is going to a be a tougher, more downhill running version of Martz’s Marshall Faulk. The only problem is that Martz is expecting J.T. O’Sullivan to be his Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner. This may be the year that Mike Martz finally realizes that he is indeed a mere mortal, just like the rest of us. I’ll be surprised if the offense catches fire this year, but if it does I will express and undying respect of Mike Martz. So we’ll see.

Finally, we have the Arizona Cardinals. The perennial underachievers of the NFL, the Cardinals fail to live up to hopes even when those hopes are actually warranted (like the arrival of Edgerrin James). The Cardinals season is going to be started off with Kurt Warner at the helm and he will lead them where he always does – on a good path towards the playoffs that suddenly and unexpectedly turns towards the edge of a cliff. This should happen around mid-season, with the hopes of a playoff bid dwindling. The Cardinals will throw Matt Leinart in, realize he won’t get them in the playoffs, but keep him in there anyway since they’ll also realize that maybe they need to keep him in for a good chunk of games in order for him to get used to being the starting QB. I heard in-game experience does wonders for quarterbacks, but what do I know? But speaking of in-game experience for QB’s…

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West has two quarterbacks who are in dire need of in-game experience: Brodie Croyle and JaMarcus Russell. Because of this, the division is essentially a shoo-in to be won by either the Broncos or Chargers. Jay Cutler proved last year that he’s the real deal and the fact that the Broncos running game is so frigging befuddling doesn’t really matter so much anymore. Brandon Marshall’s suspension was cut to one game, which meant more to his ecstatic fantasy owners than the actual team, and the team drafted rookie WR Eddie Royal, who is apparently of the rare breed of rookie WR’s with enough tools to be named a starter in his first year. All of that combined with major question in San Diego should add up to a division crown for the Broncos.

The San Diego Chargers have injury questions, mainly for Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, but LaDainian Tomlinson proved at the end of last year that he may be a mortal as well. The guy’s racked up nearly 2,500 carries (excluding receptions) so it’s really no surprise that he managed to get injured at least once. It’s a smart bet to expect either a regression or a beginning of a regression from him this year, which is something that will not bode well for Philip Rivers. Nor would the situation from his favorite target, Antonio Gates, who has stated he doesn’t know how his big toe will hold up this year. For such a big person and such a big percentage of Philip Rivers’s total completions, Gate’s big toe could spell big problems for Rivers and the Chargers overall offense. Poor Chris Chambers, he waited way too long to demand a trade from Miami.

That leaves the Chiefs and Raiders to battle it out for third place, although each team’s future looks very bright after their recent drafts. The Raiders have heralded, Hall of Fame lock, Darren McFadden to look forward to, while the Chiefs have a large portion of their 73 draft picks to look forward to. Not to mention, Brodie Croyle faced some very tough pass defenses in his 6 losses last year, so there is reason for some optimism with him this year. On the subject of optimism, let’s head down east to…

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mortal lock to once again finish last in the AFC East, despite improving leaps and bounds since Bill Parcells arrival. Overall in the division, barring a Tom Brady injury, the Patriots should once again take the division crown despite the fast improving competition.

The Jets got Brett Favre; everyone will be better, blah, blah, blah. The biggest acquisition and I’ll stand by this to the end will turn out to be Alan Faneca. He and Damien Woody will help shore up the offensive line, which is where all improvements to the running and passing game begin. Obviously, Brett Favre is an improvement but the biggest reason the Jets will truly compete for the AFC East title will be in large thanks to Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.

The Bills have apparently found a suitable future QB in Trent Edwards and a staple franchise RB in Marshawn Lynch. If James Hardy pans out, he should make for a dangerous pairing along with Lee Evans. So the offense appears all set. The defense is also fast improving, an improvement that was boosted for the short-term with the addition of Marcus Stroud. Had the Jets not acquired Alan Faneca, I most definitely would have penciled in the Bills for the two spot. But they did, so I won’t.

THE PLAYOFFS (DUH, DUH DUHH – DUH DUH DUH DUH DUH DUHHH!!)

Wild Card Round

(6) Jets @ (3) Jaguars - Jaguars

(5) Cowboys @ (4) Seahawks - Cowboys

(6) Panthers @ (3) Vikings – Vikings

(5) Colts @ (4) Broncos – Colts

Divisional Round

(5) Colts @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(3) Vikings @ (1) Eagles – Eagles

(3) Jaguars @ (2) Steelers – Steelers

(5) Cowboys @ (2) Saints – Cowboys

Conference Championships Round

(2) Steelers @ (1) Patriots – Patriots

(5) Cowboys @ (1) Eagles – Cowboys

The Super Bowl

Cowboys vs. Patriots – Patriots

Non Homer Super Bowl Prediction

Cowboys vs. Steelers – Cowboys

I don't think the playoff picks need to be explained too much, although I couldn't decide who to pick between the Patriots and Steelers so I used the homer breakdown way out.

The RB Odometer: High Career Carry Red Flags

The biggest milestone that we seem to have set for running backs is for when they turn 30 years old. It’s not even a good milestone either, despite what the majority of the population will tell you. Our brains have been wired to signal alarm sounds in our minds and produce tunnel vision whenever a three-decades-old RB is even mentioned.




It’s always struck me as odd. There HAD to be a better way to accomplish the same goal, with the goal being a common point in time when it is a good idea to expect a RB’s decline. I’ve seen plenty of 27, 28, and 29 year old backs regress and never again return to form. Why is 30 years old so much different?

Because I wanted to do it correctly, and because the potential result may actually be useful, I thought for a while on how I could do this. Should I select a random middle grouping of RB’s? Filter out most of them with a minimum requirement? At first, I didn’t even consider using the Top 10 in career carries since I thought it would be a travesty to put such an upper-echelon of talent in with any lesser human beings. Then I realized that they were indeed, still human – and that meant that their bodies were just as susceptible to damage as the others were. So until we find out John Riggins was made of metal, which is a definite possibility, I’ve included them.

To give a brief, step-by-step account of how this went down, I started off with a massively gigantic list of the Top 200 RB’s for total career carries. A few seconds later, I realized how stupid it would be if I included most of them in the sample, so I whittled it down a bit. I was eventually left with a list of nearly 100 and a minimum entry requirement of 1,200 carries.

I then took out all active players, those who were smart enough to retire before their rushing average dipped into horrific territory, (See: Barry Sanders, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber) and anyone who played the majority of their career before 1978 (schedule jump year). I then added everything together for the remaining list but got a rushing amount average that seemed a tad skewed. How would I ever solve such a road block of a problem?

The answer was simple: With a little help from our friend, the tier system.

Not the tier system as we usually know it, since I only broke the total group into two tiers, but still. The top group consisted of RB’s who had at least 1,800 carries. The bottom group were those who had at least 1,200 to 1,799 carries.

Next, I went through player by player and marked the year in which they had their final solid season. I didn’t have any specific mathematical criteria, just looking through their career stats and picking the year which would turn out to be the year BEFORE their decline began.

Next, I calculated the amount of carries the given players had at that point. If you haven’t noticed by now, this whole system would be applied to RB’s BEFORE the season starts. It’s a yearly way of tagging red flags. You could do it mid-season, but by then it wouldn’t be of much use.

Now before I give the estimates and incur the wrath from those who have RB’s with approaching limits on their fantasy rosters, let me just spell out how this could potentially be used. The bottom half amount could be applied to everyone approaching the number of carries but with the realization that many have surpassed the limit and went on to have longer and even more consistent careers. So the bottom half red flag amount isn’t really an end all be all. In fact, we shouldn’t even call them red flags – more like educated doubts.

The top half amount is a better indicator of possible red flags, even though those would likely already exist for someone who’d been in the league long enough to rack up such a high amount of carries.

Hey, at least its better then, “Uh, he’s thirty. Expect an imminent and automatic decline, because uh, well, he’s thirty!”

Or at least I hope it is.

Anyway, since I can’t explain or sugarcoat it anymore, here are the findings. And I know these are subject to a lot of outside factors and shouldn’t be taken TOO seriously, but you have to admit that it's intriguing.

The Bottom Tier: An average ‘educated doubt’ for 1,280+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 1,280 carries:

1. Clinton Portis - 1,710
2. Thomas Jones - 1,659
3. Travis Henry - 1,488
4. Rudi Johnson - 1,441
5. Deuce McAllister - 1,322
6. Willis McGahee - 1,162
7. Larry Johnson - 1,050
8. Brian Westbrook - 1,014
9. Steven Jackson - 971
10. Willie Parker - 945

- Rudi Johnson may have been seen his last days as a starter who puts up big numbers, while Willis McGahee could begin regression due to injuries in 2008.
- Larry Johnson is speeding full speed ahead towards the 1,280 mark with little to no regard for anyone or thing in his way.
- Brian Westbrook has proven to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but with more years than the average player in his position, may be more affected the deeper he gets beyond 1,280 carries.
- Travis Henry could have seen his last solid year, but for reasons not related to actual football.

The Upper Tier: An average red flag for 2200+ carries.

Notable active players who are approaching or who have passed 2,200 carries:

1. Edgerrin James - 2,849
2. Warrick Dunn - 2,483
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - 2,365
4. Fred Taylor - 2,285
5. Shaun Alexander - 2,176
6. Jamal Lewis - 2,120
7. Ahman Green - 1,941
8. Priest Holmes - 1,780
9. Ricky Williams - 1,763

- Edge is a beast and could be classified as one of the rare backs who can take a beating for an infinite amount of time. He has to regress at some point, though.
- LaDainian Tomlinson is still going strong, but his body has recently showed signs of the wear and tear that always comes with 2350+ carries.
- Is this finally the year Fred Taylor plays like his age says he should?
- How effective can Ricky Williams be so far removed from football and with so much mileage on his odometer?

None of the players listed are a sure thing to regress this year, but it’s certainly worth taking a closer look at. Oh and some possible trade-ins, too.

Target Practice: TD's and Yardage Points Per Target

I’m not going to try and hard sell you on why targets are important, don’t worry. If you are doubtful that they can be helpful, or you just don't know what they are exactly, then you can read my previous article right here. I brought up some concerns in the previous version about how the fantasy points per target statistic may have been to general. Those concerns, when looked at closer, did turn out to be quite warranted. So the only other thing to do was start all over but this time with a more specific set of statistics. That also included breaking everything down by year instead of just the totals.

Those specific statistics are touchdowns per target and yardage points per target. Touchdowns per target (or TDs/Tg as it will now be known) are pretty self-explanatory. It’s the amount of TD’s a given player scores for every target they receive.

The other statistic is yardage points per target (YPts/Tg), which is the amount of fantasy points a player accrues with touchdowns (6 points per TD) subtracted. For instance, if Johnny Rocket had 100 fantasy points in 2007 and 6 TD’s, his yardage points for the year would be 64. This isn’t rocket science, people.

To start off, I broke the target stats up by year (since 2002) with the help of the Game Log Dominator. I wanted to get a good gauge of the fluctuations between YPts/Tg and TDs/Tg each year. The only cap for inclusion in each category was a minimum of 40 total targets for the season. Before we get into the analysis, here’s a nice picture of the spreadsheet for your viewing pleasure (you need to click the link as it wouldn't fit in here):

Click here for the spreadsheet picture

Assuming that you don’t have 100/20 vision and couldn’t read that spreadsheet for detail, allow me to break it down for you, as well as suggest that you perhaps see an eye doctor. And thank you, I know I have the ill Excel spreadsheet skills. But anyway, let's begin.

Here’s a breakdown for the amount of players in each year’s list that were NOT on it the year prior:

Yardage points per target
2002-2003: 18 players
2003-2004: 12 players
2004-2005: 12 players
2005-2006: 10 players
2006-2007: 17 players

Touchdowns per target
2002-2003: 17 players
2003-2004: 13 players
2004-2005: 13 players
2005-2006: 12 players
2006-2007: 14 players

I don’t think you need to be a math whiz to come to the conclusion that there’s a lot of WR’s that break into each stats Top 20 list every year. It can likely be attributed to many things. One, the WR position is the most difficult to consistently put up big numbers. This is due to a variety of factors, including but not limited to: Different QB’s, other WR’s, rookies, contract years, pure laziness, and age. Two, the WR corps on most teams can often be wide open and vary drastically from year to year. Unlike the QB and RB positions, where the starter only needs to worry about 1 or 2 possible replacements, WR’s need to worry about 3 or 4. Studs aside, it’s a very hard position to solidify a guaranteed position in. Especially in the financial landscape the NFL is experiencing right now.

You also may have noticed that both stats have relatively similar changes each year. The TDs/Tg list tends to have more veterans and solid journeyman grace its rankings whereas YPts/Tg is a haven for young, talented WR’s to break out into. The young player then matures and either makes the jump to the TD s/Tg list or finds he is talented enough to gain vaunted, both-list status. The cycle goes on and on. It makes sense, too. What kind of idiot would focus his red zone targets on a rookie unless he either a) Has hardly any quality receivers, or b) Has a Herman Moore in-his-prime-esque rookie talent? I’m not sure, but I know that I wouldn’t want him coaching my team.

On the recently broached topic of both-lists, though, let’s take a look at how many players found themselves onto both the TDs/Tg list and the YPts/Tg list each year:

Wide Receivers on both the TDs/Tg and YPts/Tg lists
2002: 8 players
2003: 12 players
2004: 11 players
2005: 12 players
2006: 13 players
2007: 11 players

Even some of the top WR’s who were consistently on at least one list each year managed to top more than 50% of their time in the league (since 2002) on both. Save for Reggie Wayne, who was on both lists every single year but one. Guy’s an absolute machine.

In the interests of putting what getting on these Top 20 lists means into perspective, here’s the average minimum stat lines by year:

YPts/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 80 targets, 93 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 76 targets, 81 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2004: 89 targets, 95 fantasy points, 830 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2005: 70 targets, 77 fantasy points, 710 receiving yards, 1 TD
2006: 70 targets, 87 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2007: 77 targets, 79 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 1 TD

TDs/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 70 targets, 71 fantasy points, 470 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 103 targets, 99 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2004: 87 targets, 93 fantasy points, 570 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2005: 109 targets, 110 fantasy points, 680 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2006: 84 targets, 86 fantasy points, 440 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2007: 71 targets, 93 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 5 TD’s

Aaaand the minimum averages combined over the last six years:

YPts/Tg ‘02-‘07 Top 20 minimum stats average: 77 targets, 85 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 2 TD’s

TDs/Tg ’02-’07 Top 20 minimum stats averages: 87 targets, 92 fantasy points, 560 receiving yards, 6 TD’s

What’s that? Those stat lines suck you say? Well, this whole thing isn’t meant for you to somehow find the next Terrell Owens or Randy Moss. It’s meant to give a statistical low point on what you should get if you target the players correctly. It’s the minimum. On average, 11 new players will be on each respective list at the end of next year. That’s 22 possible players to research who could potentially net you a decent amount of fantasy points. They may not be a stud, but they could be a blossoming one. They may not win you a title by themselves, but they could help you in a couple of key spot starts throughout the season that prove critical to your acquisition of the Hefty Aluminum Foil Champions Trophy. See where this is going?

Unlike in the last article, where I tried to Nostradamus every exact fill-in all by myself, let’s take a look at the players who have the potential or lack thereof to get on the lists next year. But first, let’s sum up what type of players will find themselves on either list (excluding the elite WR shoo-ins):

Yardage points per target list

- Often young, inexperienced or both (rookies).
- Usually quick, nimble receivers who are good at gaining yards after the catch.
- Not usually a target of the QB in the red zone.
- Very likely to be a WR2 or WR3.

Touchdown points per target list

- Often experienced veterans and/or solid journeyman wide outs.
- Usually big-bodied possession receivers.
- Often a target in the end zone, but sometimes not the top one.
- Could be a WR1 or WR2 because of their scoring ability and experience.

Now, taking those two lists, you can more easily target WR’s who will fall into one of the two categories. It makes it easier to go and see just how many people you think will fall out of the Top 20, especially since it fluctuates year to year. So it’s not always exactly 11 exclusions.

To get your brain going, here are the 2007 Top 20’s, the mortal locks to stay on them, some possible players who may fall of them and then followed by those who could possibly gain access into the ranks next year:

2007 Top 20 in Yardage Points per Target
1 Santonio Holmes
2 Greg Jennings
3 Joey Galloway
4 Andre Johnson
5 Reggie Wayne
6 Terrell Owens
7 Antwaan Randle El
8 Donte Stallworth
9 Randy Moss
10 Chad Johnson
11 Jerricho Cotchery
12 Calvin Johnson
13 David Patten
14 Brandon Stokley
15 Justin Gage
16 Roddy White
17 Anquan Boldin
18 Donald Driver
19 Patrick Crayton
20 Dennis Northcutt

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Reggie Wayne
Terrell Owens
Randy Moss
Santonio Holmes**

** Interesting note: The #1 ranked player on the YPts/Tg list failed to make the list the following year in every year but one. That was Lee Evans in 2004-2005 and he finished 20th the following year (barely). What am I getting at? Well, just that he may not be a ‘mortal’ lock, but since he’s on my fantasy team I’ll throw him on there.

Possible Dropouts:
Antwaan Randle El
Justin Gage
Dennis Northcutt
Joey Galloway

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Desean Jackson
Lee Evans
Reggie Brown
James Jones
Ted Ginn Jr.
Sidney Rice

2007 Top 20 in Touchdowns per Target
1 Randy Moss
2 Greg Jennings
3 Terrell Owens
4 Braylon Edwards
5 Nate Burleson
6 Santonio Holmes
7 Andre Johnson
8 Anquan Boldin
9 Patrick Crayton
10 Plaxico Burress
11 Marques Colston
12 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
13 Brandon Stokley
14 Laveranues Coles
15 Reggie Wayne
16 Hines Ward
17 Joey Galloway
18 Larry Fitzgerald
19 Jerry Porter
20 Wes Welker

Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Santonio Holmes
Plaxico Burress
Braylon Edwards
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald

Possible Dropouts:
Brandon Stokley
Hines Ward
Jerry Porter

Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Roddy White
Jerricho Cotchery
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Santana Moss
Limas Sweed

The assignment my class, is to pick the 9-10 players that you think will absolutely stay on the list next year. Then, take a look at the following list and pick the difference from 20 as to who you think will break onto the list next year. And one rookie has made the YPts/Tg list in each of the last 3 years, so take that into account if you wish. Have fun and feel free to leave your findings in the replies.

Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs

Target Practice: Fantasy Points Per Target - Part 1

While researching further into the target information I had acquired with The Football Guys, Game Log Dominator (best thing since the forward pass I tell ya -- thank you Doug Drinen!), a light bulb went off in my head. Most of the information, while sure to be interesting and fun to read, wouldn’t be very beneficial to the common fantasy owner. The hardcore, statistic-loving kind? Absolutely. The average, make-that-simple-please kind? Not so much.

Keeping in mind that the majority of drafts would be taking place within the next week or so, I began to Scooby-Doo the pages of target statistics in hopes of uncovering some valuable nuggets for those who had yet to field a team(s).

Since I’ve decided it would be best to just keep this write-up strictly on the Forums and website and not throughout the vast internet-verse, you’ll likely be the only person at your draft with the following information. Especially since my website only gets on average, 2 unique visitors per day and even then, most of the time those people are only concerned with selling me percocet and toasters with broken English. So you should be good if your league-mates don’t frequent the Shark Pool.

Now that I’ve gotten your hopes up, I’m going to shoot them back down. Sorry. This whole thing isn’t going to win you your league title (although this will) all by itself. However, I am a strong subscriber to the belief that the more information you soak in, acquire and have with you at the draft, the better your chance of acing it. That especially applies to the obscure, not-set-in-stone stats that aren’t too popular or common.

It’s simple. Is it you vs. Joe Public in your league? You’ll be coming armed with all the info that comes with a FBG subscription, all of the necessary stats and a firm grasp on some out-of-the box ones (e.g.: Quality Starts, WR Data Conglomerations, Hidden Talent -- all of which are excellent by the way). Mr. Public will probably be coming with a crisp, $8.99 magazine that he chose from the crop because Adrian Peterson was on the cover. It’s also likely he’s not concerned with his lack of studying because he just “knows football”. Yeah, okay. Color me stupid, but I’d say you’d have the upper hand there. Especially if you generously invest in a 24-pack of beer and a liter of whiskey for everyone at your draft party.

Think about it. Let’s say, you had some random quiz on the geography of Antarctica. Let’s also pretend that you knew when this quiz was, had a decent amount of time to study for it and should you get an A, would potentially win $1,000. Wouldn’t you be going to town absorbing everything possible about Antarctica? Not just, hey it’s cold and snowy, but things like the animals that live there, the average temperatures, how to spell it correctly etcetera? Hopefully that made sense. Regardless, I’ll stop hard selling you on obscure fantasy football strategies now.

Anyway, back to the topic. I ended up calculating and learning the inner-workings of a spreadsheet while tallying up what can essentially just be called “Fantasy Points Per Target.” As with my previous targets post, I’m sure something has been done with this in the past, but I’ve completely invented my own system for it. For better or worse. Hopefully not worse.

Unfortunately, there’s no rookies included in this. I wanted to include them, but found the lack of NFL statistics to compare with anything quite difficult to overcome. I may sound like I’m good with math, but I’m probably still at a tenth grade level. Tenth grade was around the time that I realized the benefits of substituting math class with gym class instead. Good times.

To the best of my knowledge and research, everyone on the following lists are still active. They all played to some extent last year and will have the opportunity to get some more time this year. Honestly, I hadn’t even heard of some of the people on the lists. But with the help of Pro Football Reference, The Game Log Dominator and ESPN (to see who changed teams), I managed to eliminate everyone who had either been run out of the league due to lack of talent or retired. There may be a player or two on one of the lists who does not belong. So if you find one, just leave a reply that references the player and I’ll fix it.

After looking at the overall list (ranked by fantasy point(s) per target from 2002-2007), five things stood out to me:

1. The top of the list was skewered with younger players who had a high Fpts/Tg due to a small sampling of quality games.
   
   
2. It may be worth the effort to factor out TD’s and make both a Fpts/Tg and TD/Tg statistic.
   
   
3. The overall Fpts/Tg didn’t give an accurate depiction of what a players value would be this year. Some type of year-by-year profile would be necessary.
   
   
4. The entire list needed to be broken up in some way.
   
   
5. I definitely needed to start using spreadsheets more often.

I ended up splitting the overall list into two. One for the players with more than 140 targets since 2002 and one for those with less. Before I present the first list, I want to quickly give my interpretation of Fpts/Tg.

Fpts/G is good and all but just like receptions, it doesn’t tell the entire story. Targets help us gauge how often a player was targeted in a particular game or season. We can then factor in what the cause of the receptions/targets gap is -- whether it was a penalty, a poor pass or just some plain old butterfingers. It’s a way of sharpening what we try and see in the crystal ball that is predictions, projections and potential.

Now apply that to Fpts/Tg. It combines potential and production, just like Rec/Tg does. In addition however, it also can give you a way to apply all of that information to your fantasy team. Sure it’s not a concrete statistic by any means, but it does help give a clearer picture on how a particular player converts his targets into points for your squad.

As I said before, I may have to factor out TD fantasy points and have them stand alone as a TD/Tg type stat. If your still reading this and have some semblance of an idea as to what I’m talking about, your feedback would be most appreciated.

Enough small-talk. Since I know people don’t tend to enjoy reading mini-novels while at their computer, I’m breaking this bad boy into two parts.

This and what follows is Part One. This one will deal with the 140+ ‘02-’07 targets list. Part Two will deal with the < 140 ‘02-‘07 targets list. It will probably be done sometime tomorrow, if anyone actually cares. It’s not too complicated, right? As always, enjoy and feel free to roast me in the replies!

NOTE: You need to click on the following picture in order to enlarge it. If not, you probably won't be able to read it..

Before we get to the year by year player breakdowns, here’s some overall observations of the list:

• For the most part, the list is pretty solid. Which makes sense. You aren’t going to get 140 targets in the NFL and be a question mark.
  
• If Chris Henry can get his act together, he could be the heir to the Ocho-Cinco/Houshmandzadeh throne. The kid is just plain talented.
  
• Good thing the Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe, because they don’t have anybody after him. They were the only team not to have at least one WR representative in the preceding list.
  
• The Miami Dolphins don’t fare much better. They’re second to last with only one WR on the list currently on the roster.
  
• Four teams are tied for the most, with five players on their active roster. They’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, and St. Louis Rams in no particular order.
  
• All four teams with five players on the list have a WR corps that is generally regarded as middle-of-the-pack. It can’t hurt to have that many veterans, though.
  
• The top two players on the list, Chris Henry and Devery Henderson, are perennial under-achievers. But they’re also big-time playmakers when on their A game. Both unfortunately have major question marks heading into 2008.
  
• Patrick Crayton and Santonio Holmes are believed to be primed for more targets this year. Neither are sleepers, but could one or both make the leap to elite WR status?

Some yearly player breakdowns (since 2005):


Devery Henderson

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 52 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 55 targets, 4.2 Tg/G, 111 Fpts, 2.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 42 targets, 2.6 Tg/G, 60 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Devery Henderson has talent. There’s no denying that. Although the fact that he drops just as many passes as he catches has been and still is a cause for concern. It’s to be expected of rookies if they had the problem in college, but it definitely should be cleared up before the WR’s fourth year. On the bright side, Henderson makes an enticing option for Orville Redenbacher’s 2009 ad campaign.

Team changes: The addition of Jeremy Shockey and emergence of Robert Meachem has not helped Henderson’s case for more playing time. If he can clear up the drop problem though, he has all the tools to be a great compliment to Marques Colston.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (38-40)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (0.8)


Chris Henry

2005: 14 games, 50 targets, 3.6 Tg/G, 78 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 75 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2007: 8 games, 38 targets, 4.8 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg

Like Henderson, Chris Henry has talent and there’s no way around it. Unlike Henderson, Henry’s issues lie off the field. After being released by the Bengals and then re-signed, Henry appeared ready to put his off-the-field problems behind him. Although one should take anything someone says to the media in such a situation with a grain of salt. Henry can put up the numbers, but he needs to start acting his age.

Team changes: Although the pair of rookie WR’s the Bengals drafted have looked promising, Henry is the clear WR3 on the team. With more options, he may not get as many looks until everyone is reminded of what he can do after an 82 yard catch and run TD.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (50-55)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Randy Moss

2005: 16 games, 124 targets, 7.8 Tg/G, 148 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 13 games, 97 targets, 7.5 Tg/G, 73 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 159 targets, 9.9 Tg/G, 287 Fpts, 1.8 Fpts/Tg

After Moss’ historic 2007 campaign, I think it’s safe to say that we’ll likely never see anyone top 2.0 Fpts/Tg after starting all 16 games in a season. He’s still the number one receiver and he still has Tom Brady throwing to him. Normally, I wouldn’t have even highlighted Moss since it’s hard to expound upon a sure thing, but I think the 1.8 Fpts/Tg will become the benchmark for years to come.

Team changes: The only thing that will effect Moss’ targets is if the team comes out the gate rushing more in 2008. Even then, he’s still going to be the go-to guy on offense.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (145-150)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.6)


Terrell Owens

2005: 7 games, 92 targets, 13.1 Tg/G, 112 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 151 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 196 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 141 targets, 9.4 Tg/G, 225 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg

The only thing that can appear to stop Terrell Owens production is if he starts a locker room coup and gets sent packing to another team. Even in an “off-year” in 2006, T.O. was still one of the top WR‘s in the NFL. It can only get better as his rapport with Tony Romo strengthens. Although it may already have strengthened to the limit since T.O. now cries for the both of them following tough playoff losses.

Team changes: They’ve got Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton may have an increased role, but to think it will effect Owens’ targets that much is pure insanity. Barring the Cowboys acquiring Randy Moss, there’s not too much to worry about.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Down (130-135)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Same (1.6)


Lee Evans

2005: 16 games, 92 targets, 5.8 Tg/G, 119 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 176 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 113 targets, 7.1 Tg/G, 114 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg

Evans fell back to earth in 2007 after a breakout 2006. Although he got off to a slow start last year, Evans now finds himself with a competent QB who appears to realize the importance of getting him the ball in Trent Edwards.

Team changes: The Bills drafted highly-touted rookie James Hardy in the 2008 NFL Draft. It’s not that much of a concern and might even help get some attention off of Evans. Before Hardy, there wasn’t much on the receiving side of things to take the defenses attention away from him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Patrick Crayton

2005: 11 games, 35 targets, 3.2 Tg/G, 46 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 48 targets, 3.0 Tg/G, 75 Fpts, 1.6 Fpts/Tg
2007: 15 games, 81 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 110 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg

Crayton has improved each year over the past three years and is now the clear WR2 on the team. Although you can make a case that he’s a WR3 and Jason Witten is the WR2/TE1, the fact that he’s on such a prolific offense can only help matters. Unless a new trend emerges where defenses focus solely on shutting down the WR2/3 on an offense with top-notch talent everywhere else, don’t expect Crayton to regress anytime soon.

Team changes: The Cowboys have added Felix Jones as the new compliment to Marion Barber, and now officially have become the token, most often used Madden team for scumbags worldwide.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (95-100)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.6)


Santonio Holmes

2005: N/A
2006: 16 games, 86 targets, 5.4 Tg/G, 99 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 13 games, 85 targets, 6.5 Tg/G, 143 Fpts, 1.7 Fpts/Tg

Although Hines Ward isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, Holmes youth and talent have officially shoved him into the WR1 spot. Holmes and Roethlisberger flashed brilliance last year in many games and will only get better the more they play together. Also, expect a lot more targets for Holmes in 2008.

Team changes: The Steelers added talented rookies Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall to an already potent offense. With so many other places for the defense to focus on, Holmes will have many coordinators regretting taking the attention off of him.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (110-115)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Down (1.5)


Reggie Wayne

2005: 16 games, 122 targets, 7.6 Tg/G, 135 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 137 targets, 8.6 Tg/G, 185 Fpts, 1.4 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 156 targets, 9.8 Tg/G, 208 Fpts, 1.3 Fpts/Tg

Wayne has gotten more and more targets the past three years in what was a slow but steady, unspoken shift towards Marvin Harrisons WR1 slot. There are questions about Peyton Manning’s health and even if Jim Sorgi ends up playing a bit, he’ll likely find himself targeting one of the best WR’s in the NFL quite often.

Team changes: Nothing really that would effect Wayne, but if the possibly overblown Marvin Harrison doom sayers are correct, Wayne would obviously benefit. However it will be interesting to see, after impressive performances last year, just how much he can remain at the same level without one of the best WR’s in NFL history lining up opposite him. So it could also decrement him. We'll have to wait and see..

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)


Santana Moss

2005: 16 games, 134 targets, 8.4 Tg/G, 201 Fpts, 1.5 Fpts/Tg
2006: 14 games, 101 targets, 7.2 Tg/G, 123 Fpts, 1.2 Fpts/Tg
2007: 14 games, 115 targets, 8.2 Tg/G, 97 Fpts, 0.8 Fpts/Tg

Although Moss’ fantasy point production has seen a notable decline the past three years, the installation of Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense can only hope to improve them. The team is going to throw more and likely throw more in the red zone. Both will be good things for Moss’ numbers.

Team changes: The Redskins took two WR’s and a TE in the second round of the 2008 Draft. All three will likely go through an adjustment period and Moss’ status on the offense remains unchanged.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (125-130)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.2)


Torry Holt

2005: 14 games, 163 targets, 11.6 Tg/G, 186 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg
2006: 16 games, 179 targets, 11.2 Tg/G, 177 Fpts, 1.0 Fpts/Tg
2007: 16 games, 149 targets, 9.3 Tg/G, 159 Fpts, 1.1 Fpts/Tg

Although Holt’s production has decreased over the past few years, 2007 can be blamed on the offensive line injuries. Optimism for Holt’s situation isn’t too far-fetched, especially since Isaac Bruce’s departure will give Holt even more targets. The only key is Marc Bulger’s health. As long as he is healthy, Holt will be just fine.

Team changes: Not too much to detail, but Stephen Jackson recently ended his holdout. They won’t be the high-powered Rams offense of yore, but Holt and Jackson are elite players at their respective positions.

Targets - Up or Down in 2008: Up (160-165)

Fpts/Tg - Up or Down in 2008: Up (1.4)